ACTIONS news, forecasts, expectations, june 2021 - page 8
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Can we get to the bottom of this? So any deal is risky.
If you do not understand the essence of this - the probability of default of 30% of well it's not just from scratch, rating agencies count, etc., roughly it means that for a relatively long period of 30% of similar companies default.
If you delve into it then of course you can choose carefully and watch them all in time to sort of jump out (of low liquidity bonds, especially if the Russian Federation, it's still a pleasure :) )
But in simple terms, you just need to build in this risk. And you say like - well in recent years 30% has not defaulted even once. Well at some point all 70% may. And you don't know exactly when that moment will come.
This is a small part of the depo.
" Usually it's not the dollar going up against the rouble, but the rouble going down against the dollar " - which is the same thing ) - it's just said differently.
If the dollar rises against the rouble - or the same for instance if the rouble falls against the dollar - the shares of SURGUTNEFTEGAZ are on the rise simply because a large part of its assets is denominated in foreign currency.
The situation you describe is true for companies with assets in rubles.
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If you look at the USDRUB and SGNGP chart, you may even take January 2015 which is a nice bullish candlestick for SGNGP and the same month for USDRUB, a nice bullish candlestick too.) we see no fall - though ruble is falling ), SNGGP shares are going up just at the same time
Then look at USDRUB for February 2015 - Ruble goes up - Dollar to Ruble goes down - Surgutneftegas shares go down - although Ruble goes up
You can also look at July August 2018 in USDRUB pairing for those months. Also look at March 20 , all ruble is falling - dollar is rising - SNGGP shares what are they doing ?
Can you guess why?- Maybe you just did not know that the main assets of the company are in currencies.
And another example for two cases, you have a company:
1) let's say you have assets in rubles;
2) Assets in foreign currencies.
The dollar against the rouble begins to rise - your shares will either rise or fall in the market - and the shareholders realise that you will pay dividends in both cases in roubles.
What will the shareholders do when the dollar starts to rise against the rouble in both of these cases relative to your company?
Dear Yuriy, I am by no means trying to argue, but as long as there is some interesting discussion in this boring "corridor", I will answer
1. If you had read my posts carefully you would have noticed that the issue of currency cache in CIS was raised from the very beginning, and I pointed it out; that is why it is strange to hear again from you saying "did you know about it?
2. You are right about the main movements, no need to argue, the currency revaluation of the CIS greatly increases the divi, and the stocks are bought on it, it is obvious. And I was drawing your attention to the peculiarity that the best time to buy them is not before the fall of the rouble as it may seem, but just during or even after the fall (or weakening).
Example of 2020: look at when the prefs minimum was on February 28 and March 2, at which point the rouble had already fallen by 9-10% in less than 2 months from 61.3 to 67.3,Do you know what I mean?
In 2014 from June to September the ruble fell 18% and the CISp did not rise. You can look at other points too, I haven't.
The reason for this is that the rouble often falls when non-residents exit rouble assets, all at once and they don't really care. If the rouble falls or might fall heavily over the year, then of course free money is used in CIS prefs. If the rouble itself falls, it does not guarantee high CIS divisions (moreover they compensate for the difference of the exchange rate if you deposit in USD).
3. The dollar rises and the ruble falls, different processes, different causes and different physics and effects, although the main reason is of course the backwardness of the Russian economy. Roughly speaking the dollar grows as the rouble depreciates faster for many reasons and the rouble collapses as the free money leaves the rouble assets. Roughly speaking, this is a monetary and fiscal process. In practice, of course, the process is often mixed.
4. And the example of company assets, I certainly understand your point, butwhy such a exaggerated example, assets can also generate you profit and loss, and it may also depend on exchange rates and many other things. Just note that there is a difference between the par value of assets you are talking about now, and the free cache reserve with CIS, these are different things. Moreover, I think if you get into accounting, the concept of "assets in foreign currency" is something vague and even mythical :). Let's say you bought an imported machine tool, the ruble has fallen by 2 times, and what - the machine tool has become an asset in the balance sheet to 2 times the figure? not so. depreciation, loss of value, etc., and many companies use in their revaluation of fixed assets the cost model (and the LPG is among them), in which the exchange rate does not play any role at all. therefore the assets and the LPG deposit are quite different, quite different.
h ttps://www.rbc.ru/economics/06/08/2021/610d77829a7947493960a08f
For four months. What happens after that. I do not support such decisions. Patching holes without the long term.
Wealth of 24 richest Russians exceeds ruble savings of country's population
Russia's 24 richest businessmen have become rich in the seven months of 2021, a total of $43.9 billion, Bloomberg has calculated in its latest World BillionaireIndex(BBI).
A total of two dozen Russians have $372.93 billion in assets, or 27.194 trillion rubles at the current exchange rate.
That's more than the entire population keeps in ruble accounts in Russian banks - 25.667 trillion rubles, according to the Central Bank of Russia on July 1.
Vladimir Potanin, the biggest Russian billionaire, is still the biggest one: since the start of the year, he has increased his fortune by $3.36 billion, to $33.4 billion, and is 42nd in the world ranking, beating, for example, American Eric Schmidt, who along with Larry Page and Sergey Brin pioneered Google.
The leader in the growth rate of wealth was the owner of Severstal and Power Machines Alexei Mordashov. His fortune increased by $6.14 billion, to $29.2 billion.
In the Russian ranking, Mordashov is in 4th place, behind Novatek and Sibur shareholder Leonid Mikhelson and Novolipetsk Steel owner Vladimir Lisin.
Mikhelson increased his fortune between January and July by $5.82 billion to $30.6 billion, while Lisin increased it by $5.48 billion to $29.3 billion.
At the bottom of the Russian top 5 is Vagit Alekperov, the main shareholder of Lukoil. His capital was estimated by Bloomberg at $21.3 billion, an increase of $4.01 billion from the beginning of the year.
Only five Russian billionaires out of 24 included in the ranking recorded a decrease in their fortunes in 2021.
Andrei Melnichenko, owner of SUEK and Eurochem, became $886 million poorer. His fortune dropped to $17.2 billion.
Shareholder of Alfa Bank, Veon (Beeline) and X5 Retail Group Mikhail Fridman lost $770 million. His assets were valued at $13.7 billion at the beginning of August.
The fortune of Fridman's investment partner German Khan dropped by $428 million to $9.36 billion.
Wildberries CEO Tatiana Bakalchuk became $731 million poorer and Alexei Kuzmichev, who owns shares in LetterOne Holdings along with Khan and Fridman, lost $355 million.
With billionaires getting richer, Russia ranks among the top five largest economies in the world in terms of the drop in overall wealth.
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2. On the essence of basic movements you are right ...
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