From theory to practice. Part 2 - page 5

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vladavd:

Any trade implies a prediction: it's not opening for a torch, it's opening for profit, so it's assumed that we know the future with some probability. Whether or not you draw some line into the future is irrelevant, there is still a prediction, just without the line it is in an implicit form.

Greetings!

Rather not the future, but the scenario by which it is likely to play out.

 
Serqey Nikitin:

A standard mistake all newbies make is relying on "predictions"...

Imagine a Businessman relying on predictions... How long will he stay in business?

ANY BUSINESS relies on a SETTLEMENT....

If the calculations are wrong, the downside is guaranteed... It is not the predictors who survive in business, but the clever and calculating businessmen...

Oooh. Yes.

A businessman withouta business plan is a trader) ))

 
Uladzimir Izerski:

Ooh. Yes.

A businessman withouta business plan is a trader) ))

A trader without a business plan is a GAME!
 
Serqey Nikitin:
A trader without a business plan is a GAME!

Any business plan is a prediction of how much can be realised, and if it succeeds, or maybe not, how much profit there will be.

 
Vitaly Muzichenko:

Any business plan, is a prediction of how much can be realised, and if it succeeds, or maybe not, how much profit there will be.

A business plan relies on calculations, and Predictions rely on psychic abilities.
 
Serqey Nikitin:
A business plan relies on calculations, and PRESENTATION relies on psychic ability.

All business plans are based on "if there will be, then ..."

 
Alexander_K:

The most interesting thing is that if we draw a phase portrait for the OPEN M1 increments (X-axis is the current Return(t) increments and the Y-axis is the previous Return(t-1) increments)

then it turns out that we do not observe any particular asymmetry and unfortunately we can not assert that there is any significant correlation between the increments in the market.

The market has places of trendiness and places of reversion. And it's a whole world out there. And you are counting the hospital average.
And it's not a phase portrait, it's a scatter plot.
And the dependent value is usually plotted on the y-axis. And what you have is the dependence of the past on the current. Mankind hasn't invented turning back time yet, you have to live with what you have)

Read your maths textbook, for Christ's sake)
 
Vitaly Muzichenko:

All business plans rely on "if there is, then..."

Yes, you're right...

And predictions are based on "will this..." ....

See the difference?

 
Serqey Nikitin:

Yes, you're right...

And the predictions are based on "there will be this..." ....

See the difference?

It's the same prediction, just a play on words.

 
Vitaly Muzichenko:

Same predictions, just a play on words.

Of course. It makes no difference whether the trader draws something or just holds in his head that after his entry the price will go in his direction. All the same, he a) makes some kind of analysis b) believes that this analysis allows him to judge the future quite reliably. This judgement, that there is a %set of conditions in the market now, which means that the price will rise or fall in the future, is a prediction.

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