On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 140

New comment
 
On my indicator, the fast spread line has resumed moving downwards. This is a good sign for me.
 
Grigori.S.B:

Let us know when your market opens.

Probably upgrading its system.

 
Flat has dragged on. Probably will close focus 8 not at 450 - 500 profit, but at less profit, say 200-250. Minus for now.
 
Mikhael1983:
Flat has dragged on.

There is no flat. At least in the pairs you are trading. It's the trend going against you.

Mikhael1983:
Probably closing focus 8 not at 450 - 500 profit, ...

Actually, at first you promised 600.

Mikhael1983:
Minus for now.

Not just minus, but much more minus than the originally planned profit. Be honest - you're sitting on a wild drawdown.

 
Mikhael1983:
Flatting has gone on for a while. Probably, I will close Trick 8 not at 450 - 500 profit, but at lower profit, say, 200-250. Minus for now.

here it is necessary to deal with the "area of focus definition" - to identify under which external conditions the focus works, and under which "yet minus"

Close candidates - USDX and SDR - for example until they go in the channel and do not deviate beyond sigma, then focus works. When they are slightly out, it's 50/50, stronger - minus everything.

 
The probability of continuing a winning streak decreases with each new win. These are obvious things. You've already had seven positives, the odds are getting smaller and smaller, so why persist? Close with a minus, shake the dust off your boots and move on.
 
Aleksei Stepanenko:
The probability of continuing a winning streak decreases with each new win. These are obvious things. There have already been 7 positives, the chances are less and less, why persist? You close with a minus, shake the dust off your boots and move on.

You need to change pairs, then the signals will always be "fresh"

 
Vitaly Muzichenko:

You need to change pairs, then the signals will always be "fresh"

I don't know Vitaly, I think the rule will continue to work the same way. Of course, it all depends on the probability of winning a single trade on each of the pairs. If they are the same, the result is unlikely to change.
 
Aleksei Stepanenko:
I do not know, Vitaly, it seems to me that the rule will continue to work the same way. Of course, it all depends on the probability of winning a single trade on each of the pairs. If they are the same, the result is unlikely to change.

Greetings! I think you should diversify risks. Why open two deals with a full cut, when you can open 3-5 deals with smaller lot on different instruments and thus protect yourself from the situations the TS got into. It is Monday and it was really flat almost for all instruments, except pound (Audi was still lucky). After the first couple of trades in the pound, I went plus and decided not to go to the pound till the end of the next week, because the voting is about to start and there might be some sharp changes. Now I'm in the market on AUDJPY/USDJPY and AUDUSD/EURUSD. Still no convergence, but no divergence either. Risks are reduced, but I think for nothing on both instruments AUD is, but at the moment of entering from the Yen pairs was the best decision.


Regards, RomFil

 
RomFil:

Greetings! I think you should diversify your risks.

I like it.

1...133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147...184
New comment