On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 89

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Mikhael1983:

Focus #8 is creeping up steadily )

Not much, a measly $280, fi. Waiting.


at 18:47 you posted good mismatch data and at 17:49 you opened two pairs of pairs one after the other, I wonder why? (well I'm not talking about timing, I know the answer)

 
Mikhael1983:

Dear Renat, could you please show me in real time one deal that corresponds to your guru level? I will try to learn from you (and I hope you don't mind pointing out my learning mistakes).

ok

You can stupidly multiply two parts of an equality by anything and then immediately reduce them:


 
I have a lot of smart guys, and not a single one who could read, understand and explain the formulas from the first page. My school knowledge was only enough to convert the first pair and the second pair to the total result.When this thread first appeared I missed it, because I was sure that Michael has stupidly derived EURGBP. But it turned out not. A couple of pages ago Renat was talking about some average for two pairs and showed a screen with an indicator.
So, my school knowledge was enough only for now that there is a certain average that allows to determine the necessary lot by formulas to have a skew in probability. That is, in fact, not a cross-pair is made of two pairs, but a portfolio - synthetic of cross-pairs and one of majors, which will indicate the lot from majors, and the above said lot is set to change the probability.
And further, if we don't try to work out the formulas we can build already traded portfolios and look what is on the portfolio chart at the moment of entering and exiting. Maybe in this variant it will be more evident what is a focus-pattern.
 
Maxaxa:

at 18:47 you posted good mismatch data and at 17:49 you opened two pairs of pairs one after the other, I wonder why? (well I'm not talking about timing, I know the answer)

Didn't understand the question. An hour difference is normal. Right now it's 22:12 Moscow time and the terminal shows 21:12. The fact that deals are opened in real time can be seen not by what time is in the message, but by what values of quotations are shown at the moment the focus is opened (either as a chart or as screenshots of open deals).
 
Renat Akhtyamov:

ok

You can bluntly multiply the two parts of the equality by anything and then immediately reduce them:


You are incapable of understanding what is written. I wasn't "deducing" equality.

I was deriving equality.

Then for the needy (I meant you personally, by the way, I won't say why) I explained what's in that equality.

Namely, that on the left stands this:

- i.e. the result of the EP transaction, if calculated in dollars.

 
Mikhael1983:

You are incapable of understanding what is written. I wasn't "deriving" equality.

I was deriving equality.

Then for those in need (I meant you personally, by the way, I won't say why) I explained what's in that equality.

Namely: that on the left stands this:

- i.e. the result of the EP purchase transaction if calculated in dollars.

this equality was already in the beginning (red arrow)

the two deltas are reduced by red crosses and say nothing because:

You could also write your nickname instead of deltas and it would be shortened in the same way

Therefore, any formula is a basis for conclusions and definitions only when there is nothing else to be done in it
 
Renat Akhtyamov:

this equality was already there at the beginning (red arrow)

the two deltas are reduced and don't mean anything.

You are wiser (in the terms of one of the participants in the thread above) than I thought. I'll try again slowly: look only at equality

Look at it, persistently, and THINK. If you have a brain, then anything below you may not read, then there will be no need to comment on it (what's below). Anything below the line

FOR THE DUMB ONES. You're not stupid, are you?

 
Mikhael1983:

You are wiser (in the terms of one of the participants in the thread above) than I thought. I'll try again slowly: look only at equality

Look at it, persistently, and THINK. If you have a brain, then anything below you may not read, then there will be no need to comment on it (what's below). Everything below the line

FOR THE DUMB ONES. You are not dumb, are you?

easy

I've already said everything above.

If you like, write your nickname instead of delta and open parentheses, or follow the same mathematical steps that were performed earlier

So we go from right to left, backwards.

is that clear?

if not, reread your post, only to your own address

 
I have found the probability skew.
At the beginning of the day there is one pip price for EURGBP, at the end of the day it is different. This is a small fact that Michael may not have taken into account when talking about some variation for EURGBP on the first page. And in fact it is the point value difference that shows the deviation.
 
Mikhael1983:
I don't understand the question. An hour difference is normal. Right now it's 22:12 Moscow time and the terminal shows 21:12. The fact that deals are opened in real time can be seen not by what time is in the message, but by what values of quotations are shown at the moment the focus is opened (either as a chart or screenshots of open deals).
Why would you open 4 orders instead of 2? (two pairs of pairs) did I miss something?
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