Fins in the glass - trying to understand what happened by the ticks - page 7

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

I don't understand the beauty of it.

So giving a hundred quid to the stock market is a piece of cake?

I never did :)

You're just not happy with 10-12% per annum and 100% risk-free,

I do. That's the difference.

 
prostotrader:

I never did :)

It's just that you're not happy with 10-12% per annum and 100% risk-free,

I do. That's the difference.

Is the bank smaller?
 
Renat Akhtyamov:
is it less at the bank?

Take it to a bank, but lately the interest at the Banks has been lower,

and on the stock exchange it can be much more than 12%.


 
prostotrader:

Take it to a bank, but lately the interest at the Banks has been lower,

and on the stock exchange it can be much more than 12%.

the strategy - put the money in and forget about it

well, that's an option.

but in the market someone's gain is compensated by someone else's loss...

which, by definition, underlines the fact that absolute 100% risklessness is out of the question.

 
Renat Akhtyamov:

strategy - put the money in and forget about it

well, that's an option too

except in the market someone's gain is offset by someone else's loss...

which by definition underlines that absolute risklessness is out of the question.

You just don't know the issue.

Read on the Internet how the price of futures is formed by SPOT.

Futures vs. SPOT is a 100% risk-free strategy, you just need to know how to use it...

 
prostotrader:

You just don't know the issue.

Read on the Internet how the price of futures is formed by SPOT.

Futures vs SPOT is a 100% risk-free strategy, you just need to know how to use it...

I'm quite knowledgeable

and have checked it all over a period of more than 40 years

and I will tell you that it is not as you make it out to be.

what you have written does not always work, long enough (up to 2 - 3 years). but still not always
 
Renat Akhtyamov:

I'm quite knowledgeable.

and have checked it all over a period of over 40 years.

And I will tell you that it is not as you make it out to be.

Check for yourself!

You can check for 100 years, but I am and will continue to be profitable :)

 
prostotrader:

Check it out for yourself!

You will check, even in 100 years, and I will profit :)

All right, hokey!
 
prostotrader:

Take it to a bank, but lately the interest at the Banks has been lower,

and on the stock exchange it can be much more than 12%.


Let me ask how you account for dividends. It is especially interesting how to work in cases where the size and date are not yet known exactly. Or do you only work where it is already known?

Really interesting.

 
Ilya Baranov:

Let me ask how you account for dividends. It is especially interesting how to work in cases where the size and date are not yet known exactly. Or do you only work where it is already known?

Really interesting.

There are three ways of accounting for dividends.

1. When the dividend is declared.

2. Historical dividend payout values.

3. Approximate dividends are calculated from current spot and futures prices.

If dividends are declared early (60-70 days before expiration), everything is simple (see pictures above: SBRF-6.19, SBPR-6.19, MOEX-6.19).

As a rule, but not always, the estimated dividends in this case are lower than the declared ones, hence the interest is higher than the Central Bank rate,

sometimes as high as 40-42%. However, it should not be forgotten that the fewer days before the expiry, the higher the interest.

At the end of last year for Aeroflot, there was 151% interest for 1 day before expiration,


which, in cash terms.

significantly less than 11% 70 days before expiry.

added

But there are also cases where a dividend is declared but the market expects a repeat dividend to fall in the same month,

then the profit percentage becomes negative.

NLMK-6.19

Dividend declared 5.8 RUB/share and traded 10.15 RUB/share