Regularity or Randomness - page 16
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Get into the very essence of losses. How is it that nobody is losing? It's not a hole in a bagel, money doesn't just fall through the cracks.
I agree, the commission and spread eat up some of the profit. But it is only part of the profit. And the rest feeds the other side of the market.
It's not the commission or the spread that the big guys are going for. It's the real losses.
Stops are one-off losses. And I'm talking about statistics, not one-offs.
Take any system at random, run a 10 year test, calculate the average trade and compare it to the spread.
In most cases, the drain will be about the rate of spread per trade. If you put the spread as close to zero as possible (one 5-digit point), the plum turns into a chatter around zero.
If you don't know where to get out, then there is no understanding of the processes involved, no theoretical basis, then you are 100% drained. People don't guess when the spark should be fed into the engine and what materials the engine should be made of, the exact composition of the mixture and all the conditions when it will ignite. There is a full-fledged theory, everything can be calculated. If there is no such understanding when trading in the market, you will lose 100%, trading is random.
We do not have enough information for a full-fledged analysis.
Firstly, understand that people are buying and selling at any time.
Everyone has different TFs and different indicators, different approaches to decision making.
The market is flooded with deals from both sides. Purely logically, it is impossible at a given moment
to squeeze money from all (buyers and sellers). So they go against the majority.
You can immediately argue that if THEY need to go down, and there are more sellers now.
THEY will whip the crowd until they believe in buying (most of them).
The big players just see it, they don't need to guess. And we need to isolate from the flow
the smaller deals and see the upside. Then we will be on the right side.
For a complete analysis we lack information.
For a start, realize that at any given time people are buying and selling.
Everyone has different TFs and different indicators, different approaches to making decisions.
The market is flooded with deals from both sides. Purely logically, it is impossible at a given moment
to squeeze money from all (buyers and sellers). So they go against the majority.
You can immediately argue that if THEY need to go down, and there are more sellers now.
THEY will whip the crowd until they believe in buying (most of them).
The big players just see it, they don't need to guess. And we need to isolate from the flow
the smaller deals and see the upside. Then we will be on the right side.
What is the art of trading?) is to be able to see what others do not see and before most people do.
If I write in a very reasoned way, our communication will quickly come to a standstill.
It won't do anyone any good.
You take the words of others very closely, so you really do care what people think of you.
This can lead to misperceptions.
You are not even getting into what I am writing on the subject. It's starting to get personal.
Make your comments on the subject, don't get personal.
I have said before that I am no longer dependent on the opinions of others.
So what is the art of trading?) is to be able to see what others do not see and before most people do.
That's right. Even if it seems crazy.
the market is the action of its participants.
there are participants that cause random movements on the market (exporters/importers)
there are participants that cause regular market movements (market makers, banks, central banks, professional brokerage organizations).
that is, the market has a natural and a random component.
this is if you take a gsb and a chart with patterns and sum them up.
one might add:
Non-markets (exporters/importers, related markets) cause strong fluctuations and trends, taking the exchange rate away from any average. Because their need for currencies is objective and depends little on current exchange rates.
Funds, brokers and partly banks, on the contrary, balance the market by speculating wholesale on extremes
Market makers and traders smooth out sharp swings by providing retail liquidity. The former at a profit, the latter mostly at a personal loss :-)
one might add:
Non-markets (exporters/importers, related markets) cause strong swings and trends, taking the exchange rate away from any average. Because their need for currencies is objective and depends little on current exchange rates.
Funds, brokers and partly banks, on the contrary, balance the market by speculating wholesale on extremes
Market makers and traders smooth out sharp swings by providing retail liquidity. The former at a profit, the latter mostly at a personal loss :-)
How do you know that?)
What if you don't?)
what then?))
or do you have the gift of telepathy?
It is easier to win for someone who understands the situation and understands the timetable.
It goes beyond the narrow-minded i.e. just the graph is everything.
the markets can be seen like this
or as follows
Make comments on the subject, don't get personal.
Okay. Okay.