The most banal trading strategy - page 31
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Another example.
Is the prediction of positive and negative R (pink and blue lines) even close to zero likely to be true? Relatively healthy? Yes. Hence it is not surprising that the forecast of the price (red line in the upper chart) quite sensibly correlates with its real subsequent movement during the next day (blue line in the upper chart). As an example, the EURUSD fragment is taken from the recent past, of the order of a couple of weeks.
heh...
"I don't understand why those who try to predict the price at all (I'm generally against it, I for one don't need it, but there are those who do price predictions) are trying to predict the price chart itself? "
and this fic you are drawing has been used by many for a long time
But none of them are shaking the air with shouts of joy.
and, as they say, it's worth a try...Renat Akhtyamov:
this feature you're drawing has been used by many people for a long time
but so far none of them are shaking the air with shrieks of joy.
That's because they can't make it properly. Although I am by no means claiming that this "feature" is strong enough for me to personally use it in trade. Certainly not. I have more advanced ideas. But even that triviality can - in fact - make much higher quality predictions (if prepared correctly) than at least 80% of predictions made with all kinds of crap called "technical analysis for suckers".
This is because they are unable to cook this "thing" properly. Although I am in no way claiming that this "chip" is strong enough that I personally use it in the trade. Certainly not. I have more advanced ideas. But even that triviality can - in fact - make much higher quality predictions (if prepared correctly) than at least 80% of predictions made with all kinds of crap called "technical analysis for suckers".
wrong
this is about the validity of that theorywrong
it's about the validity of that theory.This is not theory. It is arithmetic. All curves are rigidly connected by simple dependencies. And there is no doubt about the validity of arithmetic.
Thus, the price prediction problem is reduced to the prediction of two curves, one of which is always positive and not too far from zero, and the other is always negative and not too far from zero (and moreover, correlated with each other).
It is much simpler than predicting a price (which can go anywhere). And when you put it that way, any more or less sensible prediction of positive and negative components of the signal difference with SMA (how I prepare them, those positive and negative components, is a separate question, so your beliefs that that's how many people use the "feature" are groundless) will naturally produce a quite sensible price prediction.
For example, if I make a slightly different prediction by eye, I like it better that way:
and the output:
This is not theory. It is arithmetic. And there is no doubt about the validity of the arithmetic. Any more or less sensible prediction of the positive and negative components of the difference with SMA will naturally give a quite sensible price prediction.
For example, I'll run the forecast straight lines a little differently by eye, like I like it better that way:
and the output:
check that by predicting on history.
e.g. I would take the plot from June 13 to 15, 2018,
и ....
check such things by predicting on history
e.g. I would take the site from 13 to 15 June 2018,
и ....
There is no need for an arithmetic check.
So we write 2+2=4 and we're in the money?
Nuh-uh... good luck with that.
So we write 2+2=4 and we're in the black?
Nuh-uh... good luck to you
Essentially so. The problem for 99% of traders is that they are unable to accept the fact that nature loves symmetry and simplicity. Once again I stress your attention to the following: ANY (more or less sensible) prediction of always positive and always negative price difference signal component with SMA gives quite a sensible price prediction, i.e. the stability of such games is high.
For example, if I make a forecast by the third method, which considerably differs from the first two. I will again obtain a completely correct price forecast.
Essentially this is the case. The problem for 99% of traders is that they are incapable of accepting the fact that nature loves symmetry and simplicity.
the fact must first be confirmed
No one here takes their word for it as they trade for money.
confirmation is the state.
or at least the coincidence of a prediction on history, but made on a previous historical plot
no one here takes their word for it as they trade for money.
So I don't need your faith. People with brains will learn something useful for themselves and see for themselves what they get out of it.