The St Petersburg phenomenon. The paradoxes of probability theory.
Probably no one is interested in combinatorics, but if it helps to increase the chances of trading)).
Show me how to make a profit out of it. Most of the people here are practicing traders and programmers, and there are no theorists. :)
Show me how to make a profit out of it. Most of the people here are practicing traders and programmers, and there are no theorists. :)
- 2017.12.01
- www.mql5.com
Probably no one is interested in combinatorics, but if it helps increase the chances of trading?)
If you had worded the problem in a clear way... The people might have picked up on it.
Show me how to make a profit out of it. Most of the people here are practicing traders and programmers, and there are no theorists. :)
Yeah, sure.
You declare a game:
The player makes a bet, which the banker picks up (you're the banker). We toss a coin, the player declares heads or tails. If the prediction comes out immediately, you pay the player 1p. If at the second time - 2p. If at third time - 4p. If from the fourth time - 8p... And so on until the tenth time, after which, whether or not the prediction lands, you pay 1024r to the player.
That's it.
If you want to make a profit on the pot - make a bet of 20p. If you want to make a profit at the player's place, bet 5p.
Yeah, it's easy.
You declare a game:
The player makes a bet, which the banker (you're the banker) picks up. We toss a coin, the player declares heads or tails. If the prediction comes out immediately, you pay the player 1p. If at the second time - 2p. If at third time - 4p. If from the fourth time - 8p... And so on until the tenth time, after which, whether or not the prediction lands, you pay 1024r to the player.
That's it.
If you want to make a profit on the spot, you have to bet 20p. If you want to make a profit at the player's place, bet 5p.
I have known one win-win game for about thirty years.
It was in 1985-87m. At that time, many people remember that 3 roubles was money... So one guy, at work, was telling us the terms of the game.
You offer the player 20 kopecks. You yourself also put 20 kopecks in the same hand.
You say, guess a number... Did you guess it?
Yes.
What's the...
The answer is 7.
I have more, I win And you put the money in your pocket.
You offer him to play again.)
- Only I'll be the host...
Okay.
Make a number.... You got it?
Yes.
What's the...?
Bigger than you think and put the money back in your pocket.
But that's not the end of the game...
You offer another round...
You're the host... You propose a number.
You get back, "More than you think." ......
The highlight reel:
I don't care what number you give me, I've won and you put the money in your pocket.
After a while, the guy comes to work and swears at the guy who told him about the game...
The natural question is, "What happened?"
Turns out his relatives came to him, celebrated the reunion, went for a smoke and he took turns playing this game with them for 3 roubles.... Naturally there was no one near the players, they played one-on-one, no witnesses.
We had a good laugh that day.))))))))))))))
I've known one win-win game for about thirty years.
It was back in 1985-87. Back then, a lot of people remember that 3 roubles was money... A guy at work was telling us the terms of the game.
I've known one win-win game for about thirty years.
....
:) The same scheme was used in the past by crooks, and it's likely to be used now by crooks of all stripes as well. The main thing for them is for the victim to give them the money, and they won't get it back.
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In this thread, please post any probability theory paradoxes you can find.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox