From theory to practice - page 713
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3. It is foolish to try to describe a trend with the apparatus of statistics, regardless of the coefficients and other crutches applied. A deterministic process will never get an adequate probabilistic model, it's just stupid to build one. There is a random component, but that is for scalpers.
Even if the process is deterministic, it does not mean that it can be predicted. Also, whether it is deterministic or random depends solely on your awareness of the process.
Even if a process is deterministic, this does not mean that it can be predicted. Also, whether it is deterministic or random depends solely on your awareness of the process.
1. Predict. I am not against it.
2. I just understand the process, not informed about it.
Friends, please have a look at the GBPUSD chart for October-November 2018. These are tests on my new TS.
The green circles are positive trade entries with a "return to average" (5 trades in total with a total profit = 282 pips).
The red circle is a negative trade entry that instantly gave a loss of -160 pips.
Has anyone who trades counter-trends managed to avoid such a setback? How?!? Can you tell me or show me on the chart please...? Well, help me out a little, huh?
What are the stop losses of your TS?
The price has a memory and walks clearly along its corridors or channels or whatever you want to call it.
The lower indicator shows the deviation of the price from its average value.
As we can see, nothing good will come from the application of analysis methods such as uniform distribution, Laplace, Gauss, Cauchy and something else, AK_2.
We need to know the corridor and time of the corridor start, the average price within it, and only then we will see the distribution. And that will only be on history, and the future "rabbit-in-the-hat" channel does not know when it will start and where it will be, above or below. But it will definitely be in the corridor.
The price has a memory and walks clearly along its corridors or channels or whatever you want to call it.
The lower indicator shows the deviation of the price from its average value.
As we can see, nothing good will come from the application of analysis methods such as uniform distribution, Laplace, Gauss, Cauchy and something else, AK_2.
We need to know the corridor and time of the corridor start, the average price within it, and only then we will see the distribution. And this will only be on history, and the future "rabbit-in-the-hat" channel does not know when it will start and where it will be, above or below. .
In deep theory, they (corridors) can be caught. In real practice and in "manual" mode, they are even caught. A corridor is a market-agreed price of "older mates", i.e. market participants with larger funds and time horizons.
In three words, everything is very simple - the closer the price comes to the outer limits of the channel, the higher the volatility.
Unfortunately, volatility is hard to measure "right now". And it may change just according to clock + calendar, according to HYIP events.
And there are 100500 different "buts" and nuances that give rise to millions of strategies.
In deep theory they (corridors) may be caught. In real practice and in "manual" mode they are even caught. A corridor is a market-agreed price of "senior partners", i.e. market participants with greater means and time horizons.
In three words, everything is very simple - the closer the price comes to the outer limits of the channel, the higher the volatility.
Unfortunately, volatility is hard to measure "right now". And it may change just according to clock + calendar, according to HYIP events.
And there are 100500 different "buts" and nuances that give rise to millions of strategies.
We can't get away from it. We have what we have. We have to adapt. Nobody will provide us with better conditions.)
1. Predict. I don't mind.
2. I just understand the process, not informed about it.
You can only understand the process if you are well informed about it.
You can only understand the process if you are well informed about it.
Let's say I don't have insider information.
Let me repeat: you don't need to model the process, you need to recognise it. This is the main thing.
By the way, there is still no trend in gold and the long position is still open.
Even if a process is deterministic, this does not mean that it can be predicted. Also, whether it is deterministic or random depends solely on your awareness of the process.
And prediction is a hobby. In real trading it is not necessary.
As for your assertion that in choosing determinism or randomness, I am guided by my own degree of understanding of the question - I will answer in the third person: "do I even know what we're talking about? Or maybe we should try probability theory - it will explain and solve everything". This is the approach of an ignoramus, nothing probability theory will work out, even if you stubbornly estimate the probability that the acceleration of gravity is 9.81 m/s2, Pi number is 3.14 and E is 2.7182828285. And no probability density distribution will ever change that. Learn your physics.