Probability. - page 6
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For example in sports, you can see the result of a prediction probability at the end of a match, but in financial markets there is a continuous process. What options would you suggest?
What do you mean by a continuous process?
For example, where will the price go in the next 10 pips?
or in the next 10 minutes will the price go up or down?
It is clear that the end result will be a change in the balance of the deposit.
For the result to be positive I have an estimation of the forecast for the upcoming event, i.e. for the change in the price of the asset.
It looks like this, I am pasting a picture.
I have a thought that if a proportional value of money is used for trading operations for entering the market, stable profit will be possible.
This is why I brought up this topic. We could discuss this question together.
Why do we need a flat? What does a flat give us? You can't make money on a flat).
If you even take a split by time (binary), the price is unlikely to be the same after 10 minutes as it was at the start. it will move by at least 0.1 pip.
In binary, if the price shifts by at least 0.1 pips - then we already have a 60% benefit.
while in forex we make money on the number of pips.
The main thing is that the price shifts at least a little bit in n time.
What do you mean in sports? How do bookmakers determine odds?
For example, they took the last national championship and looked at how many matches a team won. and each team was given a number .
Then there should be a match between 2 of these teams. One team has a number 7, the other 1. So the first is 7 times stronger for the second.
And they calculate the odds. The first team gets odds of 7, the second 1.14.
Then these odds are decreased by 30% - bookmaker's profit.
So they use history to know which team is stronger.
In forex, the probability that the price will go up or down is always 50%. if you don't have a trading system!
and if there is a trading system in which 60% of normal trades, then the probability that the price will go in the direction shown by TS, is equal to 60%!
I have my own system for calculating the odds. It takes into account rise, flight and fall. Flat is a must in a prediction!
Why a flat? What does a flat give us? You can't make money on a flat).
Let's take an example from the weather)))
The probability of precipitation is not high.
It's close to 0 or 50% ????????????
Or maybe all 100 will take over.
This forecast will not be specific.
If the forecast is for 10%, I can walk without an umbrella and wait for a light rain at a bus stop or in a market)).
The situation is the same in the markets.
Let's take an example from the weather)))
The probability of precipitation is not high.
It's close to 0 or 50% ????????????
Or maybe all 100 will take over.
This forecast won't be specific.
If the forecast is for 10%, I can walk without an umbrella and wait for a light rain at a bus stop or in a market)).
The situation is the same in the markets.
Weather forecasters came to Stalin to report on their successes and solemnly declared that they had achieved a 40% confirmation of their forecasts! Stalin, after thinking about it, replied: And you predict the opposite - it will be 60%!!!
The weather forecasters came to Stalin to report on their successes and solemnly declared that they had achieved 40% confirmation of their forecasts! Stalin, having thought about it, replied: And you predict the opposite - it will be 60%!!!
))
Good to see you.
From Comrade Stalin to the present day, weather forecasting has advanced by leaps and bounds.
It seems to me that we should not lag behind in forecasts in financial markets with their growth rates.
All we have to do is think hard)))
There is no doubt that the collective mind would embrace progress in this area, but individualism does not allow it. There is greed, mistrust and many other factors.
Trend probability factors are the same, flat probability factors are different, peculiarities of reversal situations are a separate story and although all snowflakes are hexagonal no two are the same,
The maths of probability in poker is based on analysis of completed (open) cards, although high roller Tom Dwan said in one comment - that if he plays 5 thousands hands with someone he will play not by cards in the future, the psychological component (reading the opponent) will be a determining factor.
Trend probability factors are the same, flat probability factors are different, peculiarities of reversal situations are a separate story and although all snowflakes are hexagonal no two are the same,
The maths of probability in poker is based on analysis of completed (open) cards, although high roller Tom Dwan said in one comment - that if he plays 5 thousands hands with someone he will play no cards in the future, the psychological component (reading the opponent) will be a determining factor.
Not everything useful can be taken from poker. The stakes and the depot at the table are brought to a common denominator there.
The markets don't have that. Sharks can break through any strength levels, and this is the likely demise of small leveraged depots. The game is not pre-set on a level playing field. That's actually what they're designed for.
The weak have absolutely nothing to do in the financial markets. They are doomed.
Observance, experience, quick reaction will bring success. If these qualities are lacking, then it is not fate.
Not everything useful can be taken from poker. There, the stakes and the table depot are brought to a common denominator.
The markets don't have that. Sharks can break through any strength levels, and that is the likely demise of small depots with a lot of leverage. The game is not pre-set on a level playing field. That's actually what they're designed for.
The weak have absolutely nothing to do in the financial markets. They are doomed.
Observance, experience, quick reaction will bring success. If you do not have these qualities, it is not your destiny.
I guess the market isn't malicious towards us, it's indifferent. At our rates.)))
That's my premise. And I don't give a damn about sharks, puppeteers, market makers, etc.. Whether they are there or not: makes absolutely no difference.
I'm surprised to read that someone is after their penny stocks). Nonsense. Mania of grandeur, apparently.