Who trades on levels share their experiences - page 63

 
apr73:

Well, Alexander Mikhailovich tells good jokes, butwhy does the likelihood of rebound increase?

He wrote that the euro would rise yesterday, well there you go...
 
apr73:

I've been reading this thread for a long time, but I still don't understand why the probability of a pullback increases ?

I said it wrong, the probability of a reversal is always 50%, so you need to add something else to this probability, for example a trade in a trend, and what do we know about the trend? If a penny drops out as an eagle today, the move will be long and we will catch it. And if all stops are short, then you'll rather take a big profit, from 1 to 3 and higher.

 
Tip. Throw the candlesticks out of the analysis, leave the current levels.
 
Sergey Lazarenko:

I said it wrong, the probability of a reversal is always 50%, so we need to add something else to this probability, for example a trade in a trend, and what do we know about a trend? If a penny drops out as an eagle today, the turn will be long and we will catch it, and if all stops are short, we will rather get a big profit, from 1 to 3 and higher.

Well let's put it this way, the probability is not always 50%, but it tends to be.

Understand, Sergey, you can go around in circles for a long time and catch up with the departing train.

 
apr73:

Well, let's just say the probability is not always 50%, but it's tending to be.

You have to understand, Sergei, you can go around in circles and catch up with the departing train for a long time.

So give me your version of what's going on

 
Sergey Lazarenko:

So give me your version of what's going on.

I don't have one.

 
Ilya Vasenin:
Tip. You should remove the candlesticks from the analysis, leave the levels.

On what grounds? To get out of the way? Or are they misleading? I didn't write anything on the candles, or should I remove them from the chart altogether?

 
apr73:

I don't have one.

then what makes you think it's running in circles?

 
Sergey Lazarenko:

On what grounds? To get out of the way? Or are they misleading? I didn't write anything on the candles, or should I remove them from the chart?

absolutely correct. The timeframes should be excluded from the analysis. There is the price movement. Further you can do it yourself.

 
Sergey Lazarenko:

Then what makes you think it's running in circles?

Sergei, let's speak in tongues.

This is my opinion, based on internal experience. It is subjective.