and wandering around randomly again... - page 61
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- The lake of profitable bargains was made,
And on that lake appeared the silhouette of a wild bird, that bird was not big, no matter how big it was, the size of a tit. But the power of that bird was not in its titanium beak. The soul of that bird knew how to revive deposits from ashes.
I like you, Vasilisushka,
the phoenix bird, nurtured by Russia, chirped.
I'm going to open you up like before.
I'm a dabbler on any move I can make.
So you can wave your hands,
or you can wave your little kokoshnik,
Or you can be a baby Ivanov.
The money will fall on its own feet.
For they don't stand a chance
against a Maxwell demon.
the new finance minister:
- hello, is this the central bank? listen to my new directive.... all bets on the pound under the mart, should rebound by the end of the week.... there will be a MOTION...
And on that lake appeared the silhouette of a wild bird, that bird was not big, no matter how big it was, the size of a tit. But the power of that bird was not in its titanium beak. The soul of that bird knew how to revive deposits from ashes.
I like you, Vasilisushka,
the phoenix bird, nurtured by Russia, chirped.
I'll open up to you like I always have.
I'm a dabbler on any move I can make.
So you can wave your hands,
or you can wave your little kokoshnik,
Or you can be a baby Ivanov.
The money will fall on its own feet.
For they don't stand a chance
against a Maxwell demon.
And on that lake appeared the silhouette of a wild bird, which was not a big bird, no matter how big it was, the size of a tit. But that bird's strength was not in its titanium beak. The soul of that bird knew how to revive deposits from ashes.
I like you, Vasilisushka,
the phoenix bird, nurtured by Russia, chirped.
I'll open up to you like I always have.
I'm a dabbler on any move I can make.
So you can wave your hands,
or you can wave your little kokoshnik,
Or you can be a child-bearing Ivanov.
The money will fall on its own feet.
For they don't stand a chance
against a Maxwell demon.
But misfortune came to Vasilisushka.
Gorynych the serpent, the dog is clever,
He pretended to be a chimpanzee with seven heights,
and breathed not fire,
but with words even more scientific.
"Come on, you little sparrow," he said,
Into a dark hole.
For you speak heresy of the world,
and you're not ashamed in front of the nobles,
About emerald bushes.
And let me water the monkey,
With every word an outlandish term,
and then, with a scientific formula.
The sparrow's copper dreams.
And the monkey told Vasilisushka
That it is necessary to work with hands,
and that he should use his head as well.
And to wave them in the sky,
Or other, child-bearing Ivan's,
Waiting for the rains of gold-platinum,
but for a cold head,
I know there's nothing else to do.
bullshit...
Think logically: in a normal distribution there are different probability densities for different series...in the centre of the distribution bell there are the most probable scenarios...
(nowi, give me something to think about in the sun
)
Can you write what you think the probability of my series of 20 eagles falling out is equal to ANY (!) of yours, but one single series of your choice of 20 of the same throws...?
(nowi, give me something to think about in the sun)
Yeah, I'll be off to Excel to do a probability graph... I have nothing better to do than entertain you at the resort...)
just a word on the subject...
there's a big difference in a series of e.g. 12 heads and 8 tails in any order or 12: 8 in a strictly specific sequence...
if you are interested in the probability of getting 20 eagles in a row 11111111111111111111 or getting 12 eagles : 8 tails in a sequence 1122212121221122211 then the probability is the same and very low...BUT
but if 20:0 and 12:8 are compared (in either order) then surely the probability of a series with 12 heads and 8 tails or 11:9 or 7:13 is much greater than a 20:0
(nowi, give me some information to think about in the sun)
Can you write what you think the probability of my series of 20 eagles and ANY (!) of yours falling out, but one single series of 20 throws chosen by you...?
...
there is a big difference in a series of e.g. 12 heads and 8 tails in any order or 12: 8 in a strictly specific sequence...
if you're interested in the probability of getting 20 eagles in a row 11111111111111111111 or getting 12 eagles :8 tails in a sequence 1122212121221122211 then the probability is the same and very low...BUT
But comparing 20:0 to 12:8 in either order, there is a good chance of getting 12 heads and 8 tails or 11:9 or 7:13 in a row, rather than 20:0.
So what have I been telling you all along?!
THIS is already called the probability of matching the outcomes to a set of conditions,... not the probability of a particular series of outcomes falling out
To get your "... probability of getting 12 heads and 8 tails or 11:9 or 7:13..." you FIRST have to have a random "series" (which will fall with exactly the same probability as my 20 heads), and then COUNT the NUMBER of eagles (!)... And it is the RESULTS of such COUNTS, being drawn on a bar graph, that will start to form your favourite "dome" with a probability density (!), and not the statistics of frequency of falling out of each particular series.
Now tell me, are you still going to argue that "...with equal probability in an infinite cyclethe trajectory will always tend towards this ratio (50:50)which means to zero..."?(https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/193378/page53#comment_5245824) _ After all, your words "... the probability of falling 20 eagles in a row 1111111111111111111111 or falling 12 eagles :8 tails in a sequence 112221212111221122211 then the probability will be the same..." unambiguously mean that the trajectory does not tend towards anything... and is moving purely arbitrarily.
There was one here before, he also knew how to forecast, and now he has left the forum, making perpetual motion machines))). It is true in theory.
(nowi, give me some information to think about in the sun)
Can you write what you think the probability of my series of 20 eagles and ANY (!) of yours falling out, but one single series of 20 throws you've chosen... is equal?
That's the whole point! I agree completely. If I set an algorithm in the tester, let's say stop 200 pips, take 700 pips. I enter no matter how, by any indicator. At a certain continuous period, say 2 months. Then it turns out as one continuous series and it can be both profitable and losing.
On the real account the Expert Advisor never works for 2 months continuously. It shuts down and then shifts back up. That is, the series becomes a lot. And it is very important not to set the Expert Advisor on a long series. I would like to see statistical data.
However, the balance chart that has to participate in stopping and starting of the Expert Advisor is also involved.
Can someone check if they flip a coin at random. At a ratio of 200 to 700. In which direction the curve will tend.
In the market it's more complicated though. There are some visible conditions of high probability of movement in my direction. In order to understand and see that. One should discard time charts. And decompose the price movement into pixels (Renko chart to help). Here you can see the patterns and probabilities of price movements in one direction or another, as long as they repeat. And you can't confuse them on the Renko chart, as all the cubes are the same. And the combination of cubes gives a signal - which can be evaluated in terms of probability.
Thus the probability of a move in your direction, can be improved. The problem is the other way out!
Mr. Kent has suggested an idea that has been running around in my head for a long time. To win at the poker table. Most of the players at that table must be in cahoots. Then the money would flow from one player to another, but in a good moment take away money from other players who play alone.
Thus, the more identical accounts, but with different time starts, the higher the probability of taking money from the market.
I think it is enough to have three friends (players) in the market. One plays to go down, the second to go up and the third one, analysing both of them will join the side with the higher mate expectation. This is a signal to enter.