Forecasting - page 5
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So you're saying that the direction of a quote's movement in the next minute depends on the values of somespecific indicators...?
In technical analysis, yes, because the calculation is strictly with numbers.
Technical analysis is built on a mathematical basis,
1. Depends.
2. LOL. TA is a religious teaching. Mathematics is nowhere near there.
Boundaries of opportunity are the pivot points.
Do you have for yourself a set of attributes that allow you to identify "boundaries of opportunity" with a probability other than 50/50?
Technical analysis is based on mathematics, fundamental analysis is not. In fundamental analysis, information is gathered about speeches, publications, rumours and so on to make a decision.
But the price chart is the same. Technical analysis supposes and fundamental analysis disposes or vice versa, it does not matter. The price is dependent on both circumstances.
I've moved into the realm of reality: to be able to make a prediction, you must either know the REALITY, or have statistics that show that after some situation described by a set of attributes, the price, in most cases, behaves this way and not that way
One day's statistics are very different from another day's statistics, and so is the price formation of one day from another, let alone weeks, months, let alone years. Try to draw the distribution law of a trading instrument and what you will see - the answer is nothing. The answer will be nothing. You can gather statistics as much as you want, the reality is that everything is random.
Do you have for yourself a set of attributes that allow you to define "boundaries of possibilities" with a probability other than 50/50?
My experience allows me to say Yes.
Uladzimir Izerski:
... Цена находится в зависимости от обоих обстоятельств.
dimozg:
... What law of distribution does it obey - the answer is none. You can collect statistics as much as you like, the reality is thateverything is random.
The price depends on only one circumstance: where there are more moose, that's where it goes.
And the distribution of moose is a very confusing thing.
... And the distribution of moose is a very confusing thing
The price depends on one thing only: where there are more moose, that's where it's going.
And the distribution of moose is a very confusing thing
This is what randomness is.
Well...
And what kind of prediction are you going to talk about in a random process? (randomness, in this case, is meant as "lack of pattern data"... stupid - ignorance of a mere mortal trader)
1. Depends.
2. LOL. TA is a religious teaching. Mathematics is nowhere near there.