Cyclical patterns in the market - page 17
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What conclusions can I draw from this graph?
I know the algorithm and I know that it exists, but I cannot calculate it just by looking at the chart. That is, there is a definite development law and all future movements, roughly speaking, are predefined by past movements and there are errors in calculations, that is, a forecast of one bar has an error, forecast of the next bar has an error and every next bar has an error from the previous one. Thus the error is accumulated and this results in sharp rises and falls of fluctuations. So the question is whether it is a random fluctuation mathematically or it is a regularity. If it is a regularity, then by restoring the algorithm for constructing this graph, it is possible to create an algorithm for constructing a real graph in the same way.
That's where the error accumulates, you have to count differently.
By the way, about the SB I want to add something. Here is the chart
This is a H1 chart of GBPUSD. But it's not a real chart, it's a synthesized one. Based on the volatility forecast I made a price movement prediction indicator. That is, each subsequent bar is calculated on the basis of the previous one. What can we see there? The same as regular chart, i.e. support lines, resistance lines, trends, flat, TA patterns (double bottom and top).
You can take the volatility as the size of the high-low, and there is also the open-close, so you can forecast two channels, consequently obtaining a candlestick forecast.
This volatility can be taken as the size of the high-low, but there is also an open-close, so you can forecast two channels, thus obtaining a candlestick forecast.
This is how it is done)
That's roughly how it's done)
If you have a prediction, you will see that each prediction structure has its own error and not an overlapping one when calculating each successive prediction. By the way, how long do you do forensics?
I don't even remember anymore, about 7 years.
I know I shouldn't do it, when I wrote this tool the aim was to predict 1 bar in the future, sometimes it's accurate to 1 point, sometimes it doesn't hit at all. But I wonder what will happen if there is a lot, just with the cumulative error.
I don't even remember anymore, about 7 years.
I know I shouldn't do it, when I wrote this tool the aim was to predict 1 bar in the future, sometimes it's accurate to 1 point, sometimes it doesn't hit at all. But I wonder what will happen if there is a lot, just with the cumulative error.
If you're a forex broker, it's better to be a regular forex dealer than a professional forex dealer.
In general, we have found the distance squared to determine how far the price can go in the next 12 hours. For example, the ATP calculation shows that the price should pass in total 200 points (back and forth). Rooted by the distance, we obtain that the price may fall or rise by no more than 59 points.
But the question is, how to fit the remaining 141 points into this straight line? Several chart variants with different scenarios can be created. Of course, within the limits of permissible deviations, otherwise there will be an infinite number of them. And to get some variants of the development of events approximate
In general, we have found the distance squared to determine how far the price can go in the next 12 hours. For example, the ATP calculation shows that the price should pass in total 200 points (back and forth). Rooted by the distance, we obtain that the price may fall or rise by no more than 59 points.
But the question is, how to fit the remaining 141 points into this straight line? Several chart variants with different scenarios can be created. Of course, within the limits of permissible deviations, otherwise there will be an infinite number of them. And to get some variants of the development of events approximate
No, thick tails will break the whole picture, skewness may be prolonged. In fact the point is not to get absolute values but to get quantitative inflection points of volatilities.
So here is what I got, flipped a coin, profit and loss 20 pips, red profit, blue loss. Question, is the picture correct? Do I need to look for a pattern in it....
Maybe I have guessed, I need to draw a line and sell on each candle above the line and buy below. And on each candlestick I should pre-cut the line to the highs/minimums? Who thinks so?
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... I wonder if he will or he won't (thoughtfully...)