The path to the grail: thechanalysis vs MM

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I started this thread because I often read posts on this very topic in other threads.

So, gentlemen colleagues. What do you think brings us closer to success in the market? Is it technical analysis with its various possible and impossible indicators, filters, a la "artificial intelligence", or competent management of funds?

After many years and (without too much modesty) ineffective practice of working in forex and futures, I increasingly tend to believe that the entire analysis with all its smarts and predictions - in terms of percentage of contribution to a successful and profitable TS - tends to zero.

I am almost convinced that tons of books, and gigabytes of internet publications, thousands of formulas and indicators - mean almost nothing. For the probability of their predictive value is practically zero.

Moreover, I'm getting more and more convinced that correctly built MM - can really make money, without indicators and technical analysis at all. By MM I mean a reasonable increase of volumes at the right time, reasonable averaging, etc...

It would be very interesting to discuss this topic and hear the opinions of colleagues...

 
Congratulations. What comes close? Common sense and sobriety of judgement.
 

I see a contradiction in your conclusions, on the one hand you say that TA is not necessary, and on the other hand you use a "smart" MM with a well thought-out averaging.

The smart averaging can be achieved only with MM and price series analysis, because no matter how "smart" the MM is, it is fraught with a fiasco to enter the averaging in the arbitrary chosen part of the chart.

 

going into averaging is fraught in PRINCIPLE.

with or without TA.

 
moskitman:

going into averaging is fraught in PRINCIPLE.

with or without TA.

:)

If anything, going into the market is fraught!

I didn't mean no TA at all. In general, the entire TA is contained in the candlestick chart when you have a certain skill.

Probably, I did not understand it correctly. I meant the uselessness of complicated and sophisticated indicators. The market cannot be predicted even on the next tick.

 
You don't need to predict
 

Более того, я все больше и больше убеждаюсь в том, что грамотно построенный ММ - способен реально зарабатывать деньги, вообще без индикаторов и тех.анализа. Под ММ я подразумеваю продуманное увеличение обьемов в нужный момент, продуманное усреднение и тп и тд...

Is the "right moment" happening at the same time as the "judicious averaging" or not? :) Maybe it's just martin at your place?
 
Meat:
Does the "right moment" happen at the same time as the "judicious averaging" or not? :) Maybe it's just martin?


Well don't get down to "ilan" :)

I assure you - there are smarter systems for managing funds :)

ZS: Correction. Ilan - has the right to exist, if it wasn't so primitive...

 
lexandros:

I started this thread because I often read posts on this very topic in other threads.

So, gentlemen colleagues. What do you think brings us closer to success in the market? Is it technical analysis with its various possible and impossible indicators, filters, a la "artificial intelligence", or competent management of funds?

After many years and (without too much modesty) ineffective practice of working in forex and futures, I increasingly tend to believe that the entire analysis with all its smarts and predictions - in terms of percentage of contribution to a successful and profitable TS - tends to zero.

I am almost convinced that tons of books, and gigabytes of internet publications, thousands of formulas and indicators - mean almost nothing. For the probability of their predictive value is practically zero.

Moreover, I'm getting more and more convinced that correctly built MM - can really make money, without indicators and technical analysis at all. By MM I mean a reasonable increase of volumes at the right time, reasonable averaging, etc...

It would be very interesting to discuss this topic and hear the opinions of colleagues...


I don't get it - MM is bolted onto the TS. If the TS is not based on TA, what is it based on?
 
On the sub :) totally agree with the topicstarter, I've seen a lot in almost 5 years and it's all crap, I'll dig differently now
 
Demi:

I don't get it - MM is attached to the TS. If the TS is not based on TA, what is it based on?


The TS is based on the MM.

I am beginning to think - this approach is more viable. All of the analysis goes to shit. It does not give anything at all...

At the moment, despite all indicators and TA, the yen went very strong and pulled the other pairs with it. None of the indices were expecting anything like this.

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