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What is a fredo ?
It's a compliment, an evaluation. It's like, smart as hell, like Sigmund Freud.
What use then is this terminology of commonly known methods if they don't work in a straightforward way.
A year ago I would have agreed with you, but not now. Trading on the russian fund time and again I notice a direct correlation between the efficiency of the TS and the efficiency of the market. In the most open, liquid and massive markets, TCs show the best results, which cannot be said for illiquid stocks with dubious reputations. Apparently market efficiency does not seek at its limit to the roulette wheel, but gives everyone an opportunity to make money.
I have been told by people I generally believe that the whole Russian market is inefficient.
Working with illiquidity is a separate art with its own approaches, algorithms, etc. It's the same on 0merica.
If you put aside all the bullshit, "efficient market = martingale".
I have been told by people I generally believe that the Russian market is all inefficient.
Working with illiquidity is a separate art, with its own approaches, algorithms, etc. It is the same in America.
Compared to the american market, any other market, much less the russian one, will not be liquid. But that is not even the point, there is enough liquidity. If to compare some low-liquid Russian shares with high-liquid American stocks it appears to be that American stocks behave more technically, their TA strategies work better, while doubtful Russian shares do not work or work very badly. Or another example - Si (usdrub). Before 2008, it was a completely different market. What we trade on it now did not work at all before 2008. After the crisis, liquidity came to the Si, new participants came, the market became more interesting and effective. Now you can make money on it. What was that all about? The message is simple, we misunderstand market efficiency. We understand it in terms of EMH. But who says the market is consistent with EMH? Rather the opposite, its efficiency seeks some kind of consensus with all participants. It begins to meet the expectations of all participants as if at once, which we observe as the increasing efficiency of TCs, i.e. TCs not only worsen their characteristics over time, but in some cases improve them as well.
There is some correlation between these notions, but they are not identical.
In general, very liquid and very illiquid securities are very difficult to "earn". next, the efficiency of a particular security is not constant; there are periods when you cannot earn on a security, and there are periods when any moron can earn.
The next thing is that the effectiveness of a particular paper is variable. there are times when you cannot make money and times when any moron can.
PS. i almost forgot. the situation in the market is constantly changing. today, some algorithms are working, tomorrow there are other chips, etc. this is normal. - this is normal.
"The efficient market hypothesis can be formulated as follows: a market is efficient with respect to any information if it is immediately and fully reflected in the price of an asset."
So this hypothesis is clearly utopian because there is always energy, except in cases of illiquidity when the price jumps instantly.
Trading on the ross. fund, I have noticed time and again a direct correlation between TC performance and market performance. In the most open, liquid and massive markets, TCs perform best, which cannot be said for illiquid stocks with dubious reputations.
So this hypothesis is clearly utopian because there is always energy, except in the case of illiquidity when the price jumps instantly.
there is a trend(inertia) and a random process around it with variable dispersion(price jumps) = unsteady quotidian
this trend exists only on history when it has already ended so catching it mathematically in the future is utopia.