[ARCHIVE] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 14: April 2012) - page 33
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but where does the volume data come from? if it's not too hard to say in a nutshell. thank you! all i've seen in my life in terms of volumes is a test week on volfix ...
Here you can look and there are some volume tools, free for now...
h t t p ://fxcoder.ru/
Euro/dollar. Fundamental levels
$1.3280 - small approaching/stop offers
$1.3240/50 - medium size buffers
$1.3205/20 - large buffers
$1.3190 - stops
$1.3180 - medium size buffers
$1.3165/70 - small buffers
$1.3145/50 - medium size buffers/stops
$1.3115/25 - medium size buffers
$1.3095/100 - large buffers
$1.3068 - current Euro/dollar
$1.3035/30 - strong demand/stops
$1.3020 - moderate demand
$1.3005/00 - strong demand/$1.3004 March 15 low/stops
$1.2980/70 - moderate demand
The dollar/yen made another attempt to get close to the eighty-first figure on Tuesday, boosted by increased demand for the Japanese currency due to the Bank of Japan's previously announced decision to maintain the scale of quantitative easing at the same level. During the trading the pair has established a fresh monthly minimum at Y81.05. However, according to Jane Foley of Rabobank, uncertain prospects of actions concerning monetary policy of Bank of Japan can restrain interest of market participants in purchase of the Japanese currency. Foley adds that more significant event will be the meeting scheduled for April 27, where long-term forecasts may be changed. Source: Forexpf.ru
The most accurate "forecasters" believe that the euro will continue to decline and that a slowdown in the Eurozone economy, triggered by cuts in public spending in peripheral countries, will be the main driver. Nick Bennenbrock, the head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo, who has topped the list of top analysts in four of the last six quarters, predicts the euro/dollar exchange rate will reach $1.24 by year's end , whileWestpac analysts , who are firmly in second place, expect the single currency around $1.26. "If the Eurozone economy does not revive soon, the ECB may continue stimulating, while the Federal Reserve will take pause . Inthat case, a change in the rate differential would make the dollar more attractive than the euro," says Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac in New York. Source: forexpf.ru
09.04.12. The classic triangle in the euro looks set to form another point.
09.04.2012 17:08 | Author: consortium | |
I looked in the calendar again and I almost felt sick. This week the FOMC members seem to have decided to individually and collectively explain to us something inexplicable, e.g. the cryptic deviations of unemployment and jobs and all the questions about the latest "minutes". The most interesting thing is that the speakers are not just Fed officials, but officials with a voice, i.e. the very ones who gave us the latest FOMC minutes. I didn't count the number of speeches, but I haven't noticed such an abundance of verbosity from the commission members before. It will be surprising if markets cannot get anything new out of this flow.
So I have no comment on the states, let the members comment, at least they are paid for it. And in Europe there are conflicting rumours and opinions. Greece has already gone into austerity, at least in words, but the Greeks expect further austerity in everything from taxes to further wage cuts and layoffs. Spanish GDP will fall by 1.5% this year and unemployment will worsen, according to the Finance Minister. Yields on Spanish ten-year notes continue to rise as do yields on the entire European periphery. This is usually a bad sign but for now the focus is on the uncertainty in the states and therefore all the European potential euro declines are cumulative for now. Let's just keep it in mind.
The US indices at the opening today regained the data that was lost over the weekend and then went back up, if I understand correctly, on a good reading of the Chicago Fed manufacturing index. The rest of the day doesn't really count. h ttp://mafn.ru/
Trading trader's analytics.
Bearish outlook
The single currency rose in the first quarter on agreement on a second bailout package for Greece following a successful debt swap with private investors. The transaction slightly eased market worries about the eurozone crisis.
Austerity measures, lower corporate debt financing and weak economic growth will inevitably push the region towards recession in the second quarter, according to Westpac analysts. "The ECB may need additional QE, while the Fed is unlikely to ease monetary policy, meaning the interest rate spread will widen in favour of the dollar," analysts believe.
BBH: Political risks associated with the upcoming elections in France and Greece, as well as weak economic data in Europe, are likely to push the euro below the $1.297/1.300 level soon. Attention should be drawn to the debt auction that Italy will hold on April 12.
Bullish outlook
Nevertheless, some analysts are optimistic about the future of the single currency. In their opinion, monetary authorities of Eurozone have all necessary financial mechanisms to help troubled countries. Most likely, Italy and Spain will not need a financial aid, while the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy is not so great that the Fed could raise the interest rates.
HSBC: The EUR/USD will trade in a range of $1.30/35. Nothing in the market indicates that Spain alone will be able to take the pair below $1.3000. However, if something unexpected happens and the pair breaks through that level, the next support is at $1.2600.
Rabobank: The Euro might rise to $1.35 within 9 months and $1.40 within a year if the Fed keeps interest rates low and the USA manages to cut its budget deficit after the presidential elections in November.
Yeah... it's going down... what's the reason? Any ideas?
...the news on america is bad...
plaza thank you very much! ABS - can you tell me where you read? terminal - late, ribbon Reuters - I can't afford it )) thanks!
http://www.stocktime.ru/calendar.htm