Is any prediction doomed? - page 24
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When you run your system in the tester, each trade is essentially as unique as each trading situation. It's just that the TS discards a lot and leaves only a small piece of information. As in the case with statistics of crossing the street: you can collect statistics of crossing an object of "Man" type, or specify - "a drunken man" :) But even if the person is the same each time, but the situations are different. I.e. probability is an abstraction invented for prediction under conditions of partial or complete uncertainty and it depends on the awareness of a particular observer. Awareness is not only about having statistics, but also knowing which statistics are meaningful. For example, I don't think it's as useful to collect statistics about crossing the street according to sexual orientation as it is to collect statistics about the psycho-emotional state of the crosser :)
So in the case of an intersection, the statistics are also influenced by the characteristics of the object itself, which are highly heterogeneous. Once again I ask you this question - where is it easier to estimate probabilities, in financial markets or when modelling human behaviour? While all people have personality traits, have different patterns of behaviour in time and space, and while in the case of humans it is impossible to conduct experiments on history with changing process parameters.
That is, in the case of the crossroads, the statistics are also affected by the characteristics of the object itself, which are highly heterogeneous. Once again I ask you this question - where is it easier to estimate probabilities, at financial markets or when modelling human behaviour? And all people have different personalities, with different patterns of behaviour in time and space.
who is better off? I have already written that it depends on the awareness of the particular observer. It is probably easier for a good financial markets specialist. An insurer or someone else professionally involved in assessing the likelihood of accidents on the road is another. The other is the error of measurement of this or that probability (or predicted value) - how competitive their prediction will be in their industry.
Z.U. There are also people trading in the marketplace with their own traits of "individuality"
who is better off? I have already written that it depends on the awareness of the particular observer. It is probably easier for a good financial markets specialist. An insurer or someone else professionally involved in assessing the likelihood of accidents on the road is another. The other is the error of measurement of this or that probability (or predicted value) - how competitive their prediction will be in their industry.
Z.I. There are also people trading in the marketplace with their own traits of 'personality'
Ok. A theorist, equally distant from financial markets and insurance.
This is a general example of randomness modelling approaches, not a study of a particular individual's capabilities. Let people with their own personality traits trade in the market, but their strategy testet works the same in their terminals.
Ok. A theorist equally equidistant from financial markets and insurance.
This is a general example of approaches to modelling randomness, not a study of a particular individual's capabilities. Let people with their own personality traits trade in the market, but their strategy testet works the same way in their terminals.
you want to hear that predicting the outcome of one particular situation (one example) is more difficult than averaging over many? It is. The law of large numbers relates these quantities
Do you want to hear that predicting the outcome of one particular situation (one example) is more difficult than averaging over many? It is. The law of large numbers relates those quantities
You're making this up again - I don't want to hear anything of the sort.
I want to hear the answer to the question - how can one find and use patterns in trading and still not make predictions?
"LeoV:
Generally speaking, forecasting in financial markets is a useless business. Only searching for patterns..... LeoV: "That's the question of this thread.
You're making it up again - I don't want to hear anything of the kind.
I want to hear the answer to the question - how is it possible to find and use patterns in trading without doing any forecasting?
Why are you asking me this question?) I didn't say otherwise
You're making it up again - I don't want to hear anything of the kind.
I want to hear the answer to the question - how is it possible to find and use patterns in trading and not make predictions?
I want to hear the answer to the question - how can one find and use patterns in trading and still not make predictions?
"LeoV:
Generally speaking, forecasting in financial markets is a useless business. Only searching for patterns....." is the question of this thread.
Ok. A theorist equally equidistant from financial markets and insurance.
This is a general example of approaches to modelling randomness, not a study of a particular individual's capabilities. Let people with their own personality traits trade in the market, but their strategy testet works the same way in their terminals.