Is any prediction doomed? - page 23
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
What is the purpose of the cistern? To water? I mean, if the hose bursts, is there anything left unwatered, and the cistern empties. You see, yes, there's a substitution of notions. You come and look, the tank is empty, you think it's watered but it's not. ;)
Is it similar to what traders do? They look at the screen, think (predict) - the price will go up, and then, bam, someone's brains start to flow, figuratively speaking.
Well, I wrote:
I can predict what the water level's gonna be in the tank in 24 hours
and nothing else. Whether it will be watered I do not undertake to predict :), it is only by predicting the whole tank will flow out on the plot with strawberries.
Yes, probably by looking at the bars and indicator signs/lines on the screen traders are trying to predict the price behaviour, which is impossible. You should not equate forecasting with prediction. Forecasting does not predict anything.
What is their accuracy? The number of decimal places. So a DT giving five digits is much more accurate than cents on the stocks?
What about deterministically drawn history?
Don't get it. Don't get it at all. Do you have quotes in your terminal? Are they numbers? Do they have a deterministic value at time t? Or at time t they are "smeared" over the interval? Does your terminal have a quotes history? Does it change in time? Does it mean that today you have one quote as of 01.05.2010 and the next day you have another one?
Can you run your TS through this story? Numerically evaluate its effectiveness?
And in the case of a crossing or a tank - you can run yourself or the tank through the history. Can you run your strategies for crossing the intersection (for a red or green light) through the history n times?
Well, I wrote:
and nothing else. Whether it will be watered down I can't predict :), it's only a prediction that the whole tank will leak out on the strawberry patch.
Yes, probably by looking at the bars and indicator signs/lines on the screen traders are trying to predict the price behaviour, which is impossible. You should not equate forecasting with prediction. Forecasting does not predict anything.
Well, I wrote:
and nothing else. Whether it will be watered down I can't predict :), it's only a prediction that the whole tank will leak out on the strawberry patch.
Yes, probably by looking at the bars and indicator signs/lines on the screen traders are trying to predict the price behaviour, which is impossible. You should not equate forecasting with prediction. Forecasting does not predict anything.
Chattering. Forecasting and predicting are one and the same.
Learn Russian. Thankfully dictionaries are now available online.
Don't get it. Don't get it at all. Do you have quotes in your terminal? Are they numbers? Do they have a deterministic value at time t? Or at time t they are "smeared" over the interval? Does your terminal have a quotes history? Does it change in time? Does it mean that today you have one quote as of 01.05.2010 and the next day you have another one?
Can you run your TS through this story? Numerically assess its effectiveness?
And in the case of a junction or a tank - can you run yourself or the tank through history. your junction crossing strategies (red or green light) can you run through history n-times?
Learn Russian. Dictionaries are now available online.
That is, if someone gives you the history of his transitions, you run it in the tester, evaluate the effectiveness of these transitions - it will be what? The person came to you with all the history, this fact alone should tell you that the efficiency of their non-lethal transitions is 100% :)
I have to go through the labyrinth of your brain - are you sure you have a background in mathematics? Have you actually studied matstat? Even for a semester?
You have a CU. You run it through history. You get a result. Then you change the parameter. You run it again and get a result. Then you change the parameter, run it through the history and get a result. Then you choose the optimal parameter based on the results.
Now, pay attention to a question! Can you run through the history of your junction crossings first the strategy of crossing the red light only, then the strategy of crossing the yellow light only, and then the strategy of crossing the green light only and select the optimum of them?
Don't worry and take your time - think carefully!
So where is it easier to assess probabilities - financial markets or crossroads?
I have to go through the labyrinth of your brain: do you really have a degree in mathematics? Even for a semester?
You have a CU. You run it through history. You get a result. Then you change the parameter. You run it again and get a result. Then you change the parameter, run it through the history and get a result. Then you choose the optimal parameter based on the results.
Now, pay attention to a question! Can you run through the history of your junction crossings first the strategy of crossing the red light only, then the strategy of crossing the yellow light only, and then the strategy of crossing the green light only and select the optimum of them?
Don't worry and take your time - think carefully!
So where is it easier to assess probabilities - financial markets or crossroads?
I have to go through the labyrinth of your brain: do you really have a degree in mathematics? Even for a semester?
You have a CU. You run it through history. You get a result. Then you change the parameter. You run it again and get a result. Then you change the parameter, run it through the history and get a result. Then you choose the optimal parameter based on the results.
Now, pay attention to a question! Can you run through the history of your junction crossings first the strategy of crossing the red light only, then the strategy of crossing the yellow light only, and then the strategy of crossing the green light only and select the optimum of them?
Don't worry and take your time - think carefully!
So where is it easier to assess probabilities - financial markets or crossroads?
When you run your system in the tester, each trade is essentially as unique as each trading situation. It's just that the TS discards a lot and leaves only a small piece of information. As in the case with statistics on crossing the street: you can collect statistics on crossing an object of "Man" type, or specify - "a drunken man" :) But even if statistics are collected for a specific person, but situations are different every time. I.e. probability is an abstraction invented to predict under conditions of partial or total uncertainty and it depends on the awareness of a particular observer. Awareness consists not only in having statistics, but also in knowing which statistics are meaningful. For example, I think collecting statistics on street crossings by sexual orientation is not as useful as collecting statistics on the psycho-emotional state of the crosser :)