Is any prediction doomed? - page 20
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3) Well, that's what it's all about. If you simply divide the amount of something by something, at a crossroads, or in the market, than it is not a prediction, which everyone stubbornly calls prediction.
Who calls the fission process foresight? Who exactly? By whom? Where? Link.
Just be specific - let's get the scoundrels and obscurantists out in the open!
FAGOTT:
Would you agree that if it is possible to calculate for transition, it would be possible to try for the market? And if it fails, it is not worth trying for the market. Tried it, it is worthwhile.
So there is a secret kungfu technique, but you won't show it to us. I see.
FAGOTT:
Probabilities of what? Tester grails? You can try them too. The probability of positive profit of any TS during the year on any instrument is also possible. Universal tool, damn it.
As universal as a crooked mirror.
FAGOTT:
That last sentence is good. No, it's not. Here we come seamlessly to what Taleb was talking about. But not to the black swans themselves, which one usually associates with Taleb, but to the part of his book where he tries to impress upon us the value of alternatives. Shall I tell you about the Monte Carlo method?Better about the value of alternatives. In fact, it's almost the most key point in the story.
Who calls the fission process foresight? Who exactly? By whom? Where? Link.
Be specific - let's expose the scoundrels and obscurantists!
Better about the value of the alternatives. In fact, this is almost the key point, in this story.
Objection, it was said "a little bit of mathematics", this means just one small section of it. Specifically, applied mathematical statistics and complex systems modelling.
If you are familiar, as you claim, with the modelling of complex systems, then why can you only see "divide one number by another" when talking about forecasting?
If this is what your knowledge of complex systems modelling is limited to, then indeed you are only "a little bit"...?
1) So divide one by the other, but what's the point?
2) You can't. And rightly so, it's kind of weird to use that value for predicting hit-and-runs. Especially when you're talking about your own body.
3) Well, that's what we're talking about. If you divide the amount of something by something, on a crossroads, or in the market, than it is not a prediction, which everyone insists on calling prognosis.
There's something wrong with the link.
A prediction is a message about an event that will certainly happen in the future.
A prediction, on the other hand, does not guarantee the realisation of an event.
If you are also familiar, as you claim, with modelling complex systems, then why, when talking about forecasting, and can you only see "divide one number by another"???
Would you like to talk about your favourite automata? By the way, teach the automaton how to cross the street.
If this is what your knowledge of complex systems modelling is limited to, then indeed you are only "a little bit"...?
the link is not quite right somehow.
A prediction is a message about an event that is bound to happen in the future
A prediction is not a guarantee that the event will occur.
Are you familiar with information theory? Or are you only slightly familiar with it?
I am looking for a real expert in this theory (not to be confused with computer science!), who can professionally explain to me where to go.
If you can point me to a forum with specialists living there, I will certainly have a look.