Is any prediction doomed? - page 16
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Do not use the word "forecast". Use the word "conclusion". "Prediction" is uncertainty, "the will of chance". "Inference" can be formalised. Additional conditions can be imposed on it. "Seamless" crossing the street is not for professionals. A professional pedestrian will look around 10 times more, rather than rely on chance, reading a newspaper on the go when crossing. All he has to do is continue to comply with the "look left" and "look right" conditions. Such a pedestrian is difficult to hit. Practically impossible - he can bounce away (... though... 'if the Chukcha didn't open the door - the old lady would leave').
No offence, but I've had enough of one fictionist and "on my fingers" explainer. Otherwise I will answer you the same way - he came to a traffic light, looked 10 times to the right, 10 times to the left and then a helicopter fell on top of him.
A forecast is a probabilistic estimate of the future based on a method (preferably scientific). Any trader opening a position makes a forecast unless he opens it randomly. What his prediction is based on the patterns found is a second question.
comes to a traffic light, looks 10 times to the right, 10 times to the left and then a helicopter falls on top of him.
A popular exposition of the induction problem)))))
"Black Swan" in action))))))
What does it have to do with insults if with a "prediction" you will get a disadvantage. With a "forecast" you will get a minus, and write it off to "probability"...??
I honestly don't see the difference - output and prediction. A forecast can be formalised and additional constraints can be imposed.
Simply, all over the world, a probabilistic estimate of the future is a forecast.
If you have estimated the future price dynamics of an asset and your estimate is not 100% probabilistic, what difference does it make whether you call it a forecast or a conclusion? Conclusions cannot give a minus in trading?
All trading is an estimation of the future. And it is specifically probabilistic.
The point is that finding multicurrency tensions by fictitious overbought/overbought condition is as thankless an exercise as it is in the case of a single pair.
Using "probability" is not using a "pattern". On "probability" - I don't know how to apply filters. On "pattern" - quite possible.
If you find a pattern in the financial market that previously worked 100 times out of 100, does that mean that it will work with the same probability in the future?
Even more narrowly - do you know a pattern in the market that would work 100% of the time? A TS which would have no losing trades over a long period of time?
cardiogram?