[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 6: August 2011) - page 82
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
There are such thoughts:
http://news.mail.ru/economics/6515270/?frommail=1
Oleg, don't take it as an instruction (or something similar), but the wave (ii) of [5] is marked incorrectly (in my opinion). At the moment, at the senior level, we have five waves and they (the waves) do not look like a triangle (and in the second wave, the triangle is quite rare). Hence the conclusion that one should expect the formation of any of the zigzags. A simple zigzag consists of three waves, a double zigzag of seven waves, a triple of eleven waves. We have five waves down, plus one up (maybe this is the first in the impulse, maybe xx). Since a triangle of five waves does not work out, then seven waves of a zigzag should be expected.
The collapse on the stock exchanges - a harbinger of another global crisis?
The US and the Eurozone continue to experience severe market turmoil that comes from the same source: the perception that the global economy is once again entering a period of low growth. Yesterday's fall in the stock markets reminded many of August 2007, when the global credit crisis began to gain momentum. How to stop investor panic and save the global economy? - guess the media and experts.
The European Central Bank reopened the crisis on Thursday, buying up government bonds after a four-month hiatus in response to a debt crisis that began almost two years ago in Greece and now threatens to overwhelm Spain and Italy, writes The Wall Street Journal .
Officials also noted that the ECB would extend generous bank lending programs until next year and warned that economic uncertainty was "particularly high."
At the same time, the readiness of the ECB to spend the resources necessary to protect Spain and Italy remains in doubt. The decision to buy bonds was met with dissatisfaction from members of the ECB's board, including Germany's powerful central bank, the Bundesbank, according to author Brian Blackstone.
The purchases of bonds - Portuguese and Irish, according to traders - were mostly met with indifference in the financial markets. Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds remained at 6%, and the euro fell after the ECB meeting, the newspaper notes.
The US and the Eurozone continue to experience severe market turmoil from the same source: the perception that the global economy is once again entering a period of low growth, writes the editors of El País . In the US, stocks fell due to lackluster growth and suspicions that the debt deal would be an obstacle to economic recovery; As for Europe, the statement of ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet about the resumption of purchases of debt obligations of the eurozone countries sounded so sluggish that it turned out to be rather counterproductive. Markets interpreted his message as recognition that the system is in trouble, and in such conditions it is impossible to believe in an economic recovery, the newspaper writes.
On Wednesday, Jose Manuel Barroso outlined the market stabilization scheme proposed by all economists and institutions of the eurozone, but for some reason ignored by the leaders of France and Germany, which provides for the speedy completion of the rescue program for Greece, recognition of the applicability of a similar procedure for Portugal and Ireland, and the possibility for the European Stability Fund to buy debt in the market and giving the Central Bank freedom of action to stabilize markets.
However, Germany and France pretended not to have heard all these calls for immediate action, the newspaper notes. All decisions have been put on hold until September and may take months to translate into norms, money and protocols; meanwhile, solvency doubts will spread to countries like Belgium, and rising debt-servicing costs will place the brunt on individual states, wiping out hopes for an economic recovery, the paper predicts.
"There is an emergency in the financial markets" - this is how The Guardian evaluates the events . Was it a repeat of August 2007, when the global credit crunch began to gain momentum? As a result of those events, the global financial system was on the verge of death. "Yesterday it was hard to get rid of the feeling that the same thing is happening," the newspaper notes.
At the moment, investors need a safe haven: US IOUs, Swiss francs and gold are in demand, but no one needs assets associated with the periphery of the eurozone, including bonds of British banks. The trouble is that the periphery of the eurozone is expanding all the time: Italy and Spain have come under fire, and a threat has arisen for Belgium. Incredibly, there is a discrepancy even between French and German government bonds, the newspaper notes.
This panic has two root causes - one chronic, the other acute. The first is the constant fear that the Western economy has run out of fuel, but still has not accelerated. The second is the fear that Spain and Italy will repeat the fate of Greece, as they borrow money at dangerously high interest rates. "Stock market crashes and rising interest rates are, in fact, a process of changing the price of investor risk, exacerbated by the fact that few people are trading for big in August," the article says.
The task of politicians is to support European banks, issue urgent and cheap loans to Spain and Italy, and protect the real sector of the economy. "But this requires money, as well as the skill of public administration, which has evaporated from European politics," the article says.
"Currency Blocks" is the title of an editorial in The Times . "The sharp appreciation of the yen, the Swiss franc, as well as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars is primarily a sign that the economic fundamentals of the US and the eurozone have weakened," the newspaper writes.
Usually, the US and the eurozone - in fact, these are two currency unions - are perceived as a safe haven for investors. But America recently found itself on the verge of default, and the eurozone is tormented by a debt crisis that has affected even Italy. Great Britain is not easy, but at least it is outside the eurozone. Investors' concern about the situation is what caused yesterday's collapse in the stock markets.
Judging by the experience of the 1930s, deliberate devaluations of national currencies aimed at increasing competitiveness are ineffective. These steps are met with protectionist measures, which is "a sure path to stagnation and lower living standards," the newspaper writes. "The bitter truth is that the principles of financial prudence must be rediscovered if the world economy is to recover," the newspaper concludes.
"Above all, be afraid of your own fear," urges the Financial Times . "Just a few days ago, politicians did their duty to the economy by fighting each other. Now stock market traders have joined the battle: central banks are trying to stamp out the fire of an explosive stock market panic," the newspaper writes, believing that all efforts are in vain.
According to the publication, three comprehensive changes have taken place in the world financial markets in recent weeks. First, stock markets are plummeting. Second, in the foreign exchange markets, the yen and the Swiss franc, favorite currencies of fearful investors, are strengthening against the world's major currencies. Thirdly, there is "turmoil in the markets for bank financing, especially in Europe." Bonds in Italy and Spain are falling in price, their banks are having difficulty raising funds in the private bond markets, and stocks are falling sharply.
The reason is a wave of pessimism and fears for the future of the economy, the paper said. "Only the politicians and the finance ministries they command have the means to transform fears for the economy into hopes. But lately they've been in such a state that the fear is reasonable," the newspaper writes.
According to the American economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crisis, the global situation has become more difficult compared to the previous crisis, writes Eugenio Occorsio in an article published in the newspaper La Repubblica .
According to Roubini, "the probability that the US will fall into another recession is 50%." "America is faced not only with the problem of private debt, but also with the problem of public debt equal to 100% of GDP. The economy is stagnant (...) an important partner of Europe is in a frightening crisis," says the New York University economist. Japan is struggling to recover, China's economic growth is slowing, and even Germany is showing signs of fatigue.
“Following Greece, the crisis has swept Ireland and Portugal, in these countries it is really necessary to introduce a protectorate led by Germany, which will control tax policy. Italy and Spain may very soon find themselves in the same position, they are on the verge of losing access to international markets and therefore need interventions," emphasizes Nouriel Roubini.
"It's not true that Italy is too big to fail. It could go bankrupt, the problem (...) is that it's too big to be saved: resources to help Italy should come from the European Financial Stability Fund The funds of the fund itself should be doubled, if not tripled, in parallel with the new mass issuance of bonds," Roubini argues.
"Italy does nothing to stop the spread. It has lost the confidence of the markets, as evidenced by the rampant fall in securities prices. The government has lost touch with reality (...) Berlusconi claims that the markets act regardless of politics: but who, if not politicians , starting with their personal behavior, contributed to the loss of confidence in Italy?" - gives the publication the opinion of an American economist.
There are many parallels between the eurozone crisis and the US financial storm in 2008, says Financial Times columnist Gillian Tett.
Greece is very small compared to global markets - but Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns also seemed small compared to the US financial sector as a whole. Like the US authorities at the end of 2007, European politicians are now unsuccessfully applying palliative measures, postponing difficult decisions for later. The leaders again admitted that they would not save everyone from bankruptcy and not always, which scares investors. The fears of investors are contagious, especially since it is difficult for them to judge the reliability of banks - the system is too confusing. Short-term financing risks are resurfacing, on which eurozone banks are heavily dependent. There is a growing danger of an accelerated outflow of capital.
Will it end in a full-blown financial crisis, like in 2008? In any case, there is a sense of deja vu, the author of the article writes.
"The turmoil on the stock exchanges reminded of August 2007" - echoes The Guardian . Banks today seem to be in better condition, writes columnist Larry Elliot. But August 2007 is reminiscent of the current feeling that the regulators are not saying something, fearing to increase the panic.
Optimists point to differences: many companies in good shape, fast-growing China and Russia can be the locomotive that will take the rest of the world. But the author points out an unpleasant difference: the possibilities of politicians are almost exhausted. There is also a difference in mood: in 2007, financiers and politicians expected that everything was about to return to normal. And this week, the world saw the threat of a US default, the collapse of the agreement to bail out the euro and the flow of negative economic news, and the markets were scared out of their wits.
"Where will the economic recovery come from? The trouble is, no one knows the answer," says Washington Post columnist Ezra Klein. It is easier to say where recovery will not come from - not from the USA, not from Europe and not from Japan. Hope for China and other emerging economies failed: Beijing admitted that the Chinese economy has overheated. What if the Chinese leadership fails to make a "soft landing"?
Compared to 2009, the situation is more stable. "But it seems that this is stability with high unemployment, low economic growth and endless risks. It seems that we have not come out of the crisis, but got used to it. And no one really knows where the way out is," the author concludes.
A feint to the right - a feint to the left ... now, while the penalties will be beaten.
Oleg, don't take this as an admonition (or anything like it), but wave (ii) of [5] is not correctly marked (in my opinion). At the moment on the upper level we have five waves and they (waves) do not look like a triangle (and in the second wave a triangle is quite rare). Hence, we should expect formation of one of the zigzags. A simple zigzag consists of three waves, a double of seven waves, and a triple of eleven waves. We have five waves down, plus one up (possibly the first in an impulse, possibly an xx). Since a triangle of five waves does not work out, we should expect a seven wave zigzag.
From the looks of things, the Eurobucks are only going up (4 chances out of 5):
Apparently, the Eurobucks only way up (4 chances out of 5):
Everyone has their own drawings... :)) Waiting for the downside...
stranger showed his option...i like this development
Everyone has their own drawings... :)) Waiting down...
On H1-H4, yes, rather a bit down:
On H1-H4, yes, rather a bit down:
Dear Sir, would you please share an inductor?
Dear Sir, please share your turkey.
On moderation at the QB.
Looks like a gap is inevitable.
It's all quiethere :