TA or something you don't know about. - page 22
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It is not.
You can continue to engage in self-deception and sincerely think that you are not engaged in any (extra-, inter-)polation into the future.
Well, that's for you to suggest to Swinosaurs. I don't catch principles in these matters. When I make a transaction, I don't think about whether it's an attempt to look into the future or where else. And as for self-deception, all our beliefs about the market are already self-deceptive because they form a bias.
Good night.
how?
The best limiters to sell are 2 lots and someone bought one lot, the deal was executed and the bid and ask did not change?
Secondly - you say "...the price is moving..." . We have to agree on what we mean by price. The default is bid and ask. That is the so-called "best price", without volume.
It can move perfectly well without a single trade on the market. People make and put bids - bid and ask changes values. Just as the fact of a trade does not necessarily lead to a tick - to a change in price.
The best bid is 2 lots, someone bought one lot, the deal took place and the bid and ask did not change.
The best selling limit is 2 lots and someone bought one lot, the deal was done and the bid and ask did not change
there are a lot of myths about pricing, let's add another one:
the total position of orders that are in the market, it really will be zero until someone exits the market, i.e. closes a position - this moment is not to be touched yet
as for your phrase I quoted, it's not like that - if I entered the market to buy 1 lot, alas, the broker guaranteed me liquidity, and he will do it, and I won't wait a couple of hours for someone to sell me 1 lot, but the next, here's that "best selling limiter" of 2 lots will enter the market with me, and I will buy 1 lot from him and he will sell the remaining 1 lot to the buy limiters
for now it looks like this
m, and the next thing will be, here's that "best sell limiters" of 2 lots will enter the market with me, and I will buy 1 lot from him, and he will sell the remaining 1 lot to the extreme buy orders
for now it looks like this
Interesting, interesting, I would like to know more about how one can extract a positive IR into one's pocket from a market's zero IR?
Here is one very common misconception - to see a direct relation between instrument increments (incremental MO) and trading returns (trading MO). That is why it is often stated that one cannot make money on the random process, because the MO of SC is 0).
Well, there is no connection between the process IR and the trade IR.
Why? Because profit can be derived not only from increasing of the instrument, but also from its decreasing! It is even embarrassing to have to say such platitudes.
And how can you check if you can earn on price changes of this or that instrument? You can check it very easily. Absolute profitability for this or that instrument will depend only on two things: on duration of transaction in the market and on total amount of commissions for a trade (simply - spread). Thus, the trade's MO will be calculated as follows: Subtract the spread from the average profit in pips of all trades (for the average lifetime of a trade). It follows from this that no matter how well predicted, for example, the direction of the next tick, the result of a trade with a lifetime between two neighbouring ticks will always be negative.
Therefore, before starting to trade in any trading instrument, it is necessary to check, starting from which TF (time of life of a transaction or forecast horizon) profitable trading becomes possible. For most of currency pairs it is possible to do it on M5, and stable profit is possible only on H1.
P.S. Still waiting for StartEr's "...next time " :-)) )
From a theoretical point of view, you cannot. From a practical point of view, every day you see naive fools endlessly losing their small deposits at a rate many times greater than all imaginable calculation bars. Besides, I am not claiming that the market is so efficient, that one cannot make profit on it or lose it. I am simply saying that a good approach can be understanding that not everything we see is an obvious solution in our favor, and usually in a neutral situation, we can erroneously see a bias in favor of our beliefs, which in fact is not the case.
Speculation is of the "zero-sum game" category, except that it is also negative))) But just because the profits of some can only be made from the losses of others does not mean that one cannot make money. Take any game where the prize pool is formed at the expense of the players. Poker, for example, will also be a zero sum, but some will systematically win and others lose. Therefore, such games are won by anticipating the opponent's tactics. The peculiarity of speculation in the markets is that there are many opponents and one has to select and anticipate massive tactics in terms of finance. Therefore, the prediction is that some significant part of the participants will/should act similarly in similar situations. General rules/levels of stop placing, profit taking, position holding times, etc. Stereotypicality in elements of trading.
there are a lot of myths about pricing, let's add another one:
that total order position which is in the market, it will indeed be zero until someone exits the market, i.e. closes the position - this point is not touched yet
it is always equal to zero - if someone has bought the asset someone has sold it to him, otherwise the transaction will not take place
as for your phrase I quoted, imho not so - if I entered the market to buy 1 lot, alas, the broker assured me that he would provide liquidity, and he will do it, and I will not wait a couple of hours when someone deigns to sell me 1 lot, and the next thing you know, here's the "best selling limiter" of 2 lots will enter the market with me, and I will buy 1 lot from him and he will sell the remaining 1 lot to the buy limiters
for now it looks like this
The dealer guarantees liquidity. But this is wisely done depending on the current liquidity in the real markets or other dealers. You can think of the DC as always standing with a large limit buy order and a limit sell order (Bid/Ask), and the price changes by changing the level of those orders. This is basically the way the banks providing liquidity act - they are the limit side, which offers to execute a deal on their conditions, and the clients are the active side which agrees with their conditions. This is how they move the market. So, in essence, the quoted markets are reduced to the same exchange scheme, but there are also mixed types of ECN - where there is an opportunity to trade in a single market or with a liquidity provider. A simple exchanger also trades with limit orders :)