how to identify price reversal points - page 20
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And when TS will close unsuccessful entries in time and prolong successful ones, the percentage of profitable trades will fall at least by half.
The ratio of average profit to average loss is even worse - about 1:20. And profitable trades - 96%. So what's the big deal here?
It would be bullshit if the profit factor were higher than 1.14. It is too unreliable and can easily swing below 1.
Are you aware of what the sharpe ratio is? Your balance curve is very unconvincing - all you have to do is move the part starting with 262 trades to the beginning of the period and the deposit will be drained. The curve should resemble a straight line when viewed from a long distance. Profitability is at least 2. IMHO.
Is it possible to evaluate the indicator in such a way? It does not make sense when closing positions is not used. For example, let's take the same EA for the same period, change the tp/sl ratio and obtain (see below) - indicators fly in the sky. At the end we have an open order. It's clear that TS will not work that way. Well, only a TS can evaluate its effectiveness.
Here is another example. Let's change tp/sl a little bit more. So, what do we see? At the end there is not even a collapse. Positions should be s-o-r-r-u-t-y and only then we can calculate the efficiency.
Well, perhaps one more example. Now let's apply the simplest rules of channel trend trading and position closing to the indicator. And what do we see?
Same period, same indicator. Already better? So is there any point in evaluating the indicator by the performance parameters applied to the TS?
Deposit load is the ratio of the volume of a position opened to the deposit size, expressed as a percentage value.
Maximum position size - 5% of the deposit, minimum - 0.01 lot. Maximum 1 position is opened at a time (on the last figure there are 5 open positions at most). Is this relevant to the indicator in question?
Of course it does.
With a deposit of 4,000? The load is approximately 25%. Not a lot, but not a little either. With tp/sl ratio = 10/100 it's more likely to fail.
Well, it was a picture, and that's what I was evaluating. I didn't care if it was an indicator or a system. The main thing is that it was an Expert Advisor.
I see, that's not what the picture was about. ))) You better evaluate this other - can price reversal points be considered as good entry points or not. Many people here believe that it is not. I believe that everything depends on the way they are filtered and that the combination with channel and trend filters changes the situation dramatically. I think my point is confirmed by the fact that the orders are 97% effective and the picture is flattened out when even the most primitive order closing system is used. Nothing else matters in this case. Here is my thought. I have not come to TS and EA yet. I am still completing the indicators.
Of course it does.
With a deposit of 4000? The load is approximately 25%. Not much, but not too little. At tp/sl ratio = 10/100, it's more likely to lose.
And at a deposit of 1000? What kind of load can be considered "good"?
What is the connection with the tp/sl ratio? After all, if we close positions according to certain rules, then roughly speaking sl can not be exposed at all.
Your "super-high" efficiency of 97% (by the way, where did 97 come from? in the picture 96) is absolutely not a statistical advantage: the average loss per trade is about 20 times the average profit.
You compensate for extremely inaccurate entries with just this, i.e. a loss to profit ratio of 20:1 per trade. Where is the miracle here?
The percentage of profitable trades is not a parameter to pay attention to. Other parameters are more important - drawdowns, profit factor, recovery factor.
P.S. Don't be fooled, your entries are almost indistinguishable from random in terms of efficiency: the profit factor is very low and differs too little from 1.
Mathemat:
The percentage of profitable trades is not the parameter to pay attention to. Other parameters are more important - drawdowns, profit factor, recovery factor.
I see you have ignored the essence of the question. Well, that's fine. We'll apply your method when I get around to assembling the TS and EA.
Run the year 2001 or 2007, a chunk of this year is a bit above average
Similarly. When I get to build TC and EA out of it, then I'll race it through the whole story. I'll post screenshots. In the meantime there's no point, the TC isn't ready yet.
Done. Green is High and red is Low. The SMA has been used in the oscillator.
IMHO High and Low speed dynamics are too broken - it is difficult to analyse the divergence.
On the contrary, the more broken the curve is, and if the divergences are divided into high and low candlesticks, the better divergences are fixed - both latent and classic ones. Now they are clearly visible on the chart (though not all of them where you've shown). You have not mixed up "Green on High, red on Low"? Maybe it is vice versa?
If you promise to give me the indicator I will write in my personal message the conditions of determining the signals on divergence.
andreybs: А при депозите 1000? Какую загрузку можно считать "хорошей"?
What do you think?
andreybs : What is the relation to tp/sl ratio? Because if you close positions according to certain rules, then roughly speaking sl may not be exposed at all.
The relation is very simple. Here is an example. I do not know what sl=100 means, but for instance it is 100 pips. You have a deposit of $1000 and you have opened with 1 lot. In 100 pips your deposit will come kolyan and sl will not help. )))) The calculations are all approximate.