how to identify price reversal points - page 11
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Judging by your posts, you are a good and experienced programmer. I understand you as a good and experienced programmer.
The algorithm is chosen, well programmed, works accurately, without errors. So why won't it work in the future? -
It is the result of statistical processing of all the data in the database. I see no reason not to trust this information. There is always 2+2=4. If the strategy tester had been faster, I would have used it.
Programmer's logic is ironclad - everything must work. As a programmer I understand you very well))))
But I will let you in on a little secret that in financial markets 2+2 is not always 4. It may be 8. Or even -6. Why, you may ask? - Nobody knows ))))).
To explain why this happens, I would like to ask you -
Are you familiar with the concept of financial timeseries? How does it differ from a simple time series? What characteristics and peculiarities does it have?
Are you familiar with the concept of non-stationarity of financial markets? What does it mean?
Are you familiar with the expression "Past profit does not mean future profit"? Why do they say so?
...
To explain why this is happening, I would like to ask you -
Are you familiar with the concept of financial time series? How does it differ from ordinary time series? What characteristics does it have?
Are you familiar with the concept of non-stationarity of financial markets? What does it mean?
Are you familiar with the expression "Past profit does not mean future profit"? Why do they say so?
I see a lot of posts on the forum about testing strategies. A lot of errors occur due to incorrect programming of indicators and Expert Advisors https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/1490
I see topics where optimization errors are described https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/1434
And here you can see a formula according to which the accuracy of modeling of higher TFs is very high.
.......
It would be great if you would not send me to a forum but just point me to a branch where problems of history testing unknown to me are discussed.
You are looking for the wrong keywords - search for fit, non-stationarity, how to determine if the TS will work in the future, why the TS makes money on history and loses money in real life, etc. etc. ......
Are you familiar with the concept of a financial time series? How does it differ from ordinary time series? What characteristics and features does it have?
Are you familiar with the concept of non-stationarity of financial markets? What does it mean?
Are you familiar with the expression "Past profit does not mean future profit"? Why do they say so?
I am not a connoisseur of the terminology, but if I understand you correctly, then ...
1. In simple terms, the patterns of time series do not always change, but in the case of financial series they always do. But there is a theory that the market is cyclical and its future behaviour can be predicted by history. Not everyone shares this theory.
2. As far as I remember the probability theory course, non-stationary processes have a dynamic distribution function. But the dynamics of the parameters of the distribution function can be analysed. This is also known to me.
3. I have not heard about it, but I have always understood it intuitively. I understand why they say so - if you managed to adjust your TS to the market behavior now, it may fail when the behavior changes. But here we need to think about the following - maybe we do not have to look for those same regularities? More and more adaptive methods of time series analysis are being invented that are flexible enough to respond to changes within non-stationary processes.
Have you heard about singular analysis of nonstationary processes? And about multifractal analysis applied to nonstationary processes? I tell all this to that though the forecasting error is always possible, but with use of correct tools, the probability of such error can be minimized. Let us use modern methods. I am not suggesting to build a house with a hammer and nails. Technology is far advanced. And we should not be afraid of them, but should learn to use them to our advantage. I very much regret that I don't know a mathematician who can help me find a mathematical solution to my problems faster.
Right now I'm doing a major refactoring of my TS using new technology. Whether this will help it not to mess up when market changes - we'll see. I know one thing - the methods I am implementing now are much more effective than in my old TS. And if the old TS was not often wrong, the new one should be even more reliable. As the saying goes, the road takes the walker...
As the saying goes, the road is for those who walk...
To help - here, here, here - answer
Already researched...
The article about the grail is entertaining. )
I assure you, the market is much simpler than most people think. And the method used for analysis should be as simple as I've described elsewhere on this forum.
I agree, simplicity is strength. Just keep in mind that in order to move forward, established concepts have to be re-examined from time to time. When Einstein was asked how he discovered the theory of relativity, he replied: 'By questioning an axiom'. (Benjamin Upthorpe Gould)
By the way, andreybs, do you read the private messages?