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already posted in the last post. The x-axis is the reference number and actually the time :)
there is also the option of a ratio rather than a difference. Like how many times more upwards have passed than downwards. For the same data:
it's clear that in the beginning, while there's not much data, the results are unrepresentative.
Here's without the first two hundred counts:
Level 1 - equality of upward and downward growth from the beginning of the count.
And in general, this illustrates the changes in the slope of the straight line from the starting point and forward in the data plot under consideration
I think it's more useful to plot the dynamics of the linear regression angle on this data rather than on the two points
Thank you for your promptness, innovation and support. Indeed, now it is possible to analyse the dynamics of the angle you mentioned and get to the moment of a global trend change, for example. What will happen if we analyze the traditional chart below? Can we reveal any advantages of the new chart? What do you think?
Thanks for the promptness, innovation and support. Indeed, it is now possible to analyse the dynamics of the angle you mentioned and come out, for example, at the moment of a global trend change. What will happen if we analyze the traditional chart below? Can we reveal any advantages of the new chart? What do you think?
I don't analyse it visually - only statistically. That's why I don't need graphs in any form. I do not know whether it is possible to find non-trivial regularities in such processing of series - but I think that first I need a trading idea - where, what and how to look for it.
The elementary basis is the consideration of 4 forces. The first two are liquidity and counter-movement (usually it is pending buy and sell limit orders or dealer's liquidity) - that for example contains the market depth. Another two are market orders, which form the movement (stop orders are also essentially market orders). In the exchange it is the order-book or Level II. These forces change and their correlation completely determines the price dynamics. Only the change of these forces is a non-trivial task and it is determined rather by the trading stereotypes of some participants. I.e. no matter how you look at it - to outbid someone and take their money you have to anticipate their behaviour (probabilistically). This is the basis of speculative ideas. Statistics are already based on this - otherwise it's a fit :) imha
the appendix contains a script that draws this in Excel. The parameter is the number of bars to draw. The reference point is the droppad.
The library https://www.mql5.com/ru/code/8175 must be installed
Please tell me, why different scales for x and y? Wouldn't it have been easier to take them the same, to see the line of parity more clearly, by the way, you could probably have drawn this line beforehand.
Please tell me, why different scales for x and y? Wouldn't it have been easier to take them the same, to see the line of parity more clearly, by the way, you could probably have drawn that line beforehand.
It seems to be the same. You can draw it, but it won't be much clearer :) The code is simple, even a non-programmer will be able to add what he wants ;)
I don't analyse visually - only statistically. So I don't particularly need graphs in any form. Whether it is possible to find non-trivial regularities with such processing of series - I do not know, but I think that at first we need a trading idea - where, what and how to look for.
The elementary basis is the consideration of 4 forces. The first two are liquidity and counter-movement (usually it is pending buy and sell limit orders or dealer's liquidity) - that is what the market glass contains for example. Another two are market orders, which form the movement (stop orders are also essentially market orders). In the exchange it is the order-book or Level II. These forces change and their correlation completely determines the price dynamics. Only the change of these forces is a non-trivial task and it is determined rather by the trading stereotypes of some participants. I.e. no matter how you look at it - to outbid someone and take their money you have to anticipate their behaviour (probabilistically). This is the basis of speculative ideas. Statistics are already based on this - otherwise it's a fitting :) imha
Perhaps the way we are looking at will help you to solve the problem, because we are looking at the dynamics of confrontation between two forces, though not 4 forces. Also, it seems that on the graph you do not show the ratio of true values of x and y, but their sum, so you get a seeming improvement with increasing sample size. We have to give a physical meaning to this graph in order to make statistical calculations and conclusions based on it.
Perhaps the path we are looking at will help us solve the problem you mentioned, because we are looking at the dynamics of two forces, though not 4 forces. Also, it seems that the graph does not show the ratio of the true values of x and y, but rather their sum, so there is an apparent improvement with an increase in the sample size. We need to give physical meaning to this graph in order to make statistical calculations and conclusions based on it.
If we don't make sums, but individual increments, it will be a set of points, not a 45g line in a flat
In my opinion, this approach is not so much flawed as it is narrow-minded...
I will try to explain my point of view. First of all, let me remind you of such notions as individual and group movements. You can imagine them with such a simple and illustrative example:
A boundless ocean, calm. A huge cruise liner is moving calmly and measuredly from port A to port B. On the liner there are a thousand passengers, minding their own business, playing and having fun, walking left-right, running back and forth... rest ;) == each of them in their own individual movement ... But they are all together on a liner, carrying them all together, as a group, from point A to point B == it is their group movement ...
.
So, getting back to the topic, we can compare this approach to trying to determine the direction of an airliner by the individual movements of its individual passengers.
Applied to our sheep...
Here's TF Montly -- our liner.
For months, the "passengers" have been flickering up and down. But at the same time they were all in a common group movement for them all.
Let's isolate this section of the movement
and switch to a smaller TF Weekly
We see how such an obviously directional movement is hiding... And yet this is just the first near smaller TF -- and this is the weekly TF !!!
By continuing to go further down the path of the smaller TF, we lose the main thing -- the global direction of the movement.
.
Of course, everything is much more complicated, but, hopefully, my point is clear.
a huge cruise ship is moving
It is not a working association. There is no struggle for life. Not a job, but a solid recreation. ( joke )
I would like to offer my own analogy for consideration. It is more adapted to the real world. The protagonists are a completely disparate group of herbivores. The terrain is rugged enough, i.e. there is no straight path and you have to twist your way around obstacles. The objective is to find the most nutritious meadows and fields. Circumstances - all tied together by leashes of different lengths and different stiffness. Elephants are the largest and least mobile animals. The others are by descending mass and mobility. While the elephants walk assiduously towards their cherished clearing, the rest of the animals find food "on the way". It should be noted that while elephants can pull a large mass behind them, they are not immune to the unanimous gusts of the majority. But when they calm down, they go back to where they need to go, taking everyone with them. In my opinion, this association answers all questions of philosophy and psychology, which may arise. What questions cannot be answered by the scheme presented?