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I am a beginner like you. I think we should start simply, i.e. give a logically consistent mathematical definition of the trend, its presence and form in terms of probability theory and mathematical statistics. The current trend, the predicted trend and their interrelation. As long as there is no such clear understanding, I don't think there is much point in counting anything.
In general, econometrics makes sense to me... I'm not going to offer any criticism here... All I will say is that it begs the comparison between junior high school and university...
When faa1947 comes along, he's going to kick all the critics of econometrics up to their throats...
Vizard: косяк в данном методе в использывании прескота...в атаче веселые картинки...
Well, it says at the top, "Don't use for trading.
No, Oleg, your opinion on econometrics is exactly what I would like to see.
I agree. I believe that the trend should be considered depending on the hindsight within which it is determined. In the general case, apparently, it is the angle of the slope of the line describing the matrix of the price for the period in question. In order to avoid discrepancies in the methods of determining the numerical value of the coefficient which defines the trend, it should probably be determined by the method of nominal Gauss quadr. Gauss method, which was not a scatter around the straight line in the considered retrospective without any smoothing or "filters", while application of other methods will lead to chaos and discrepancies.
Seconded. I believe that the trend should be viewed in relation to the hindsight within which it is defined. In the general case, it seems to be the angle of slope of the line describing the price matrix for the period in question. In order to avoid discrepancies in the methods of determining the numerical value of the coefficient which defines the trend, it should probably be determined by the method of nominal Gauss quadr. Gauss, which was not the case with the scatter around the straight line in the retrospective considered
Here, I have demonstrated the futility of a linear trend in forex trading.
Nevertheless, to be fair, it should be noted that any attempt to develop a quotient model at the initial stages should always include the trend and a constant in the regression equation. Moreover, a number of tests provide for automatic inclusion of a trend and a constant. But then the question needs to be answered: is the use of these values significant in the model? The answer is given by the value of the probability that the coefficient at trend and constant are equal to zero. In my humble practice, neither trend nor constant was left in the final model for this proven reason.
.... without any smoothing or application of "filters", while the use of other methods will lead to chaos and inconsistencies.
Application of filters is not an end in itself and I never said so in my posts. You must first define the purpose of modelling. I don't have an objective to "define the trend", but I have an objective to have confidence in the calculated error of the forecast. And you can only trust a forecast if its error, acceptable in magnitude, changes little, and you can only get that if the error has no trend (or rather no dependence between bar errors) and none of the types of heteroscedasticity.
I think every process has to be looked at from its origins and its patterns derived, however time consuming they may be.
Why? The man doesn't know the terminology, but he has an opinion
Do you want to pinch?
And I presume you have not only the terminology but also the knowledge? :D)))))))))