The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 21

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In general, econometrics makes sense to me... I'm not going to offer any criticism here... All I will say is that it begs a comparison between junior high school and university...
 
avtomat: In general, econometrics makes sense to me... I'm not going to get into a lot of criticism here...
No, Oleg, your opinion on econometrics is exactly what I would like to see.
 
-Aleksey-:
I am a beginner like you. I think we should start simply, i.e. give a logically consistent mathematical definition of the trend, its presence and form in terms of probability theory and mathematical statistics. The current trend, the predicted trend and their interrelation. As long as there is no such clear understanding, I don't think there is much point in counting anything.
I agree. I believe that the trend should be considered depending on the retrospective within which it is defined. In the general case, apparently, this is the angle of the slope of the straight line describing the matrix of prices over the period in question. In order to avoid discrepancies in the methods of determining the numerical value of the coefficient which defines the trend, it should probably be determined by the method of nominal Gauss quadr. Gauss method, which was not a scatter around the straight line in the considered retrospective without any smoothing or "filters", while application of other methods will lead to chaos and discrepancies.
 
avtomat:
In general, econometrics makes sense to me... I'm not going to offer any criticism here... All I will say is that it begs the comparison between junior high school and university...
It seems to me that the disadvantage of econometrics, despite its great advantages, is that the study of a process or phenomenon comes mechanistically after it happens, without going into details of how these results were obtained and it unwittingly became an extension of statistics, adapting each case to already known patterns. I think every process has to be seen from its origins and derive its regularities, however time consuming they may be.
 

When faa1947 comes along, he's going to kick all the critics of econometrics up to their throats...

Vizard: косяк в данном методе в использывании прескота...в атаче веселые картинки...

Well, it says at the top, "Don't use for trading.

 
Mathemat:
No, Oleg, your opinion on econometrics is exactly what I would like to see.
Why? The man does not know the terminology, but has an opinion
 
yosuf:
I agree. I believe that the trend should be considered depending on the hindsight within which it is determined. In the general case, apparently, it is the angle of the slope of the line describing the matrix of the price for the period in question. In order to avoid discrepancies in the methods of determining the numerical value of the coefficient which defines the trend, it should probably be determined by the method of nominal Gauss quadr. Gauss method, which was not a scatter around the straight line in the considered retrospective without any smoothing or "filters", while application of other methods will lead to chaos and discrepancies.

Seconded. I believe that the trend should be viewed in relation to the hindsight within which it is defined. In the general case, it seems to be the angle of slope of the line describing the price matrix for the period in question. In order to avoid discrepancies in the methods of determining the numerical value of the coefficient which defines the trend, it should probably be determined by the method of nominal Gauss quadr. Gauss, which was not the case with the scatter around the straight line in the retrospective considered

Here, I have demonstrated the futility of a linear trend in forex trading.

Nevertheless, to be fair, it should be noted that any attempt to develop a quotient model at the initial stages should always include the trend and a constant in the regression equation. Moreover, a number of tests provide for automatic inclusion of a trend and a constant. But then the question needs to be answered: is the use of these values significant in the model? The answer is given by the value of the probability that the coefficient at trend and constant are equal to zero. In my humble practice, neither trend nor constant was left in the final model for this proven reason.

.... without any smoothing or application of "filters", while the use of other methods will lead to chaos and inconsistencies.
 Application of filters is not an end in itself and I never said so in my posts. You must first define the purpose of modelling. I don't have an objective to "define the trend", but I have an objective to have confidence in the calculated error of the forecast. And you can only trust a forecast if its error, acceptable in magnitude, changes little, and you can only get that if the error has no trend (or rather no dependence between bar errors) and none of the types of heteroscedasticity.

 
Vizard:

I analysed your quotes. Then I took quotes from the terminal for the same period and got a fundamentally different regression level. Please. Where did you get the quotes from?
 
yosuf:
I think every process has to be looked at from its origins and its patterns derived, however time consuming they may be.
Unfortunately, this is how econometrics works - it is a pile of tools with practically no instructions on how to use them. My presence on the forums is due to the fact that I have spawned a huge number of models "from the ground up", but I have not managed to get a single one sustainable. Development of any model even for one currency pair is very time consuming and dull process and I am looking for people on this forum who will join me in building and analyzing models. All of us "old timers" should remember that thousands of people graduate from institutes every year with a degree in econometrics and these people are not inclined to pedal their own bikes.
 
faa1947:
Why? The man doesn't know the terminology, but he has an opinion

Do you want to pinch?

And I presume you have not only the terminology but also the knowledge? :D)))))))))

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