end of 2011. - Beginning of the second wave of the crisis - page 2
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More to the point, how far in? And most importantly to where?
Alexei, do you have specific targets? Do we reach eurodollar parity?
I think it's all bullshit.
You and I will have to wait 6-7 years for the second wave of the crisis)))
More accurately, it will not be the second wave but a completely new crisis.
And there is no point in waiting for the second wave of the crisis, it will not happen.
Frankly speaking, I do not remember that the markets worked out the crisis in two waves.
That's why the crisis starts at the most inopportune moment, just at the peak of flows, which are still a long way away.
It does not come in two or more waves, everything happens fast and in one go.
This is my opinion.
Horror!
Have no fear. Not a goddamn thing is going to happen to this system anytime soon.
Once the Dow gets to 13,000 points, it's going to plummet down at least to the 61.8% support level
from a century of growth to 5,000 points, and that's after the interest rate hike, which means all the stock markets will fall and
people will run from stocks and commodities to quid and maybe to precious metals.
The capitalisation of US companies will fall by at least 3 times! Tax revenues will fall, the strong dollar (EUR/USD = 1:1) will make it more expensive to service the national debt!
Already no one is buying US Fed treasuries because the current US interest rate is at a ridiculous 0.25%.
Alreadynow the Fed has to buy 70% of the outstanding government bonds http://top.rbc.ru/economics/11/03/2011/557237.shtml
http://top.rbc.ru/economics/16/05/2011/592467.shtml
And it's only going to get worse, the U.S. costs are rising not by the day or even by the hour, but by the second! http://www.usdebtclock.org/
And revenues will shrink many times over!
We must live within our means! You can't live in debt all world wars, I wonder what the U.S. government is hoping for!
p.s. As it turns out, there is no better candidate for the post of president of Kenyan origin...
More to the point, how far in? And most importantly to where?
Alexei, do you have specific targets? Do we reach eurodollar parity?
My calculations suggest the following scenario:
Roman, don't be so quick. Let people warm up, get into the theme. Let Alexey's fans come up. Then we'll start talking about global trade goals. And we'll be the envy of Buffet and Soros...
Well, yes, in haste, but in general, very interested in the opinion of guys from this thread https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/132402 more than worthy opponents in terms of technical analysis.
I think it's all bullshit.
You and I will have to wait 6-7 years for the second wave of the crisis)))
More accurately, it will not be the second wave but a completely new crisis.
And there is no point in waiting for the second wave of the crisis, it will not happen.
Frankly speaking, I do not remember that the markets worked out the crisis in two waves.
That's why the crisis starts at the most inopportune moment, just at the peak of flows, which are still a long way away.
It does not come in two or more waves, everything happens fast and in one go.
That's my opinion.
Brent is at its highest level and I expect the price to fall to around $12-15 per barrel over the next year, depending on the oil grade.
That's when it will be fun, with a huge hole in the federal budget.
Crisis is a blessing for a trader, it comes seldom. It is an opportunity to make thousands out of 1 ruble (blue chips, #C, #AIG, Commodities, Metals, Chinese stocks). All diversified savings increase purchasing power, prices fall (inflation) for Consumer Goods (housing, cars, food). There are more disadvantages at the household level, so save in times of prosperity and buy up in times of crisis. The poor get poorer and the rich get richer, I strongly advise to look at the Forbes ranking and compare it with the time of accumulation of the original capital of the oligarchs and you will understand everything yourself. If you look at America, it benefits. 1st The national debt problem is postponed until the fall. 2-e Weak dollar is more profitable than ever for the US as it solves two fundamental problems, devaluing the national debt and increasing production over imports to create a surplus.
According to my calculations in the near future the ruble may quickly correct against the dollar, at least to 33 rubles per 1$.
When the second wave of the crisis arrives, the ruble will approach a strong resistance level of 42 RUR/$1,
If we break through 42, we will continue upwards towards 50-55 RUR/$.