Does the Grail exist? - page 207
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This is a strategy that works with what you have and has a winning percentage of 50/50.
In practice, even less winning trades: - for 3 profitable $200 trades usually 5-7 losing ones for $5-15 - well, this is in dollars (so as not to get lost in pips) - this is for one cycle of 10 trades. When all ten of ten may be losing - a very low probability - but given the opportunity to start a new cycle earlier. Such cycles would be unprofitable in a row - in case we need to make a break, for example.
That is, according to the probability theory we should work and the TS should correspond.
And no one will ever look for (such a pattern) and even after seeing a series of deals nothing will understand the losing ones more.
This is not for praise, but for the MM question (I want to write the third M) - for example, I trade by the TS and continuously make profit and increase the deposit. So we will have one negative cycle (-$20 000) in future and we will see that in 2010 (say trader) we earned 20 000 profit.
So any profit obtained now is useless and all the annual profit will be lost in one trade.
How can this be avoided?
How to avoid this?
It doesn't have to happen 100% of the time. Bernoulli rules here.
Aim for the result of one losing trade not to be too much of a disaster. And at the same time, make sure that there are fewer losing trades. That is, create a system with a positive MO of the trade.
A good system is, for example, if TP/SL = 2, and simultaneously the number of profitable trades is one and a half times greater than the number of losing trades (with a large number of trades, of course). Then the estimate of the profit factor equals 3 (a very good PF). In this case the series of losing trades are not as long as the series of profitable ones, and they occur less frequently.
On 3 profitable series of 200$ usually 5-7 losing ones of 5-15$.
It's a great system, if that. The PF is even bigger than that, on the order of 6. What are you squeaking for?
It does not necessarily happen at 100%. Bernoulli rules here.
Aim for the result of one losing trade not to be too much of a disaster. And at the same time, make sure that losses are less frequent. That is, create a system with a positive MO of the trade.
A good system is , for example, if TP/SL = 2, and at the same time the number of profitable trades is 1.5 times the number of losing trades (with a large number of trades, of course). Then the estimate of the profit factor equals 3 (a very good TF). In this case the series of losing trades are not as long as the series of profitable trades, and they occur less frequently.
This is not about 100% of losses, but about relative growth and an ordinary losing trade in the future (in case of a favorable development) will be equal to profit earned today for example in six months... OK, the experience will remain.
"Good system" - all earned from reverse stop immediately - maximum as on the platform 18pp profit by fact (signal), on one cycle of 5-15 (currency) transactions - the percentage of unprofitable exactly did not count somewhere around 70%.
Depo load 100% - earned profit immediately into new trades.
Profitability from 50% per day - this is such a test.
It's a great system, if that. The PF is even bigger here, on the order of 6. And what are you squeaking for?
I'm not looking - I'm resting in the grail branch....
Explain - with a trade like this the mathematical expectation is negative?
I don't know anything about your trading, the explanations are not very clear yet. But if
обычная убыточная сделка в будущем (при благоприятном развитии) будет равняться заработанной сегодня прибыли например за полгода
you should think about it. It is too wasteful to lose all you have made in six months.
I don't know anything about your trading, the explanations are not very clear yet. But if
then you should think about it.
I don't know anything about your trading, the explanations are not very clear yet. But if
you should think about it. To lose all you have made in six months is too wasteful.
If you do not understand, all this is being monitored on a real account, it is too early to draw conclusions. (If the outcome is positive, I will personally give you a link.)
(all my own stuff from my own garden and the grass as well. plus a "time fugue" of about 15 minutes ahead of time)
47% quality is unacceptable on n1 ... although on m1 and 25% is fine ... provided mismatch errors = 0 ....
Tantrik:
So any profit now is useless and all the year's winnings will be lost in a single transaction.
How to avoid that?
Friends, forgive the intrusion...
I didn't read the whole thread, honestly....
Tell me, have you found the grail?
Do you or don't you ????