Intraday trading - page 5

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USDCHF 6:12 GTM



 
Entering and targets from past sub/sopr levels (fractals) oriented?
 
sealdo:
Entry and targets from past sub/sopr levels (fractals) oriented?

The entry and targets on the charts with the white background are not mine - they are Sostratos' recommendations. I am posting them so that people can compare them with their own calculations.

P.S. Once a week at the weekend I will remove all the intraday charts as they are not needed.

Sincerely

 

The euro/dollar pair slumped after a Hungarian official claimed that "Hungary's economy is really struggling".

Market participants are thinking about a possible default...

 
"The euro fell sharply while hitting a series of 4-year lows, falling well below the key $1.20 level amid disappointing US jobs data and fears that the eurozone sovereign debt crisis is spreading across the region. The euro was already under pressure, hitting a 4-year low earlier in trading amid fears that Hungary will face a sovereign debt crisis, as are the financially strapped eurozone countries. Weaker than expected U.S. jobs data added fuel to the fire, prompting investors to question the pace of global economic recovery and prompting them to shed risky assets in favour of safe haven currencies like the dollar, yen and Swiss franc. Even before the data release, the euro had fallen to a record low against the Swiss franc. This prompted some investors to watch closely for possible another intervention by the Swiss National Bank to curb the franc's strength, although one analyst noted that there was no sign of central bank activity in the markets when the euro regained some of its strength. The euro/dollar pair traded at 1.1985 on Friday afternoon on EBS versus 1.2156 on Thursday evening. When US stock indices extended their losses immediately after noon, the pair fell to its lowest level since March 2006, at 1.1972. The dollar/yen pair traded at 91.83 against 92.64 and the euro/yen at 110.23 against 112.63. The British pound/dollar pair traded at 1.4506 versus 1.4615. The dollar/Swiss franc pair traded at 1.1607 versus 1.1565. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of other currencies, was 88.157 versus 87.240. The index reached its highest level since March 2009 due to demand for the dollar as a safe haven currency. After a jobs report indicated that the number of non-farm jobs in the US increased by 431,000 in May, rather than the 515,000 expected by economists, the euro and global growth-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar continued to fall. The euro/dollar pair's precipitous fall earlier on Friday may have accelerated as the single European currency fell to a record low against the franc, hitting 1.3865. Investors are turning to the franc as a safe haven currency amid a sovereign debt crisis that continues to rock the eurozone, while Swiss data is steadily improving. The euro is also under heavy pressure as Hungary's new government failed to reassure financial markets, shaken on Friday by a statement from one of its leaders who said the country faces a fiscal crisis similar to that seen in Greece. The vice-president of the ruling Fidesz party, Lajos Kosz, said on Thursday that Hungary was facing a sovereign debt crisis similar to Greece's. This has hurt the Hungarian forint. The dollar was up more than 3 percent against the Hungarian currency by early morning trading. A spokesman for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declined to comment on Kosci's remarks. He said that the new government intends to prevent a Greek scenario from unfolding but noted that the situation in Hungary is very serious. Hungary's prospects have also been hurt by the rise in the Swiss franc, as many mortgages in Hungary are denominated in francs, said Mark Chandler, a currency strategist and analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. The single European currency has fallen more than 15% against the dollar since early 2010 amid a sovereign debt crisis that is spreading across the eurozone's periphery, with fears now that it will hit the region's financial system or even stall global economic recovery as a whole. The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, which are considered commodity currencies, were hit harder than the euro by the release of employment data, which was weaker than forecast. This reflects their greater sensitivity to concerns about global economic growth."
 

UK, The Sunday Telegraph: Euro to disappear in 5 years;Euro to fade into oblivion before the end of this parliamentary session, says The Sunday Telegraph.



" The single currency is in a state of agony and will not be able to survive in its current form for a week, let alone the next five years, according to economists in London's business quarter. The statements confirmed suspicions that the new chancellor, George Osborne, will face a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office.
Of the 25 leading economists surveyed by The Sunday Telegraph, 12 predict the euro will not survive this parliamentary term in its current form, compared with eight who believe it will. Five said the outlook for the euro is unclear. Britain's economy is also expected to grow by more than one percentage point less than forecast in March. The government will borrow almost £10bn less than the Treasury expected, despite this lower growth rate. Many economists believe that the Bank of England will not raise rates until 2012.
But the conclusions about the euro are perhaps the most unexpected. A year ago or less, few within the City confidently predicted the currency's demise. But the hardships of Greece, Spain and Portugal in recent weeks, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel's admission that the currency was facing an "existential crisis" have radically changed that view.
Douglas McWilliams of the Centre for Economics and Business Research said of the single currency: it "may not even survive until next week", while David Blanchflower, a professor at Dartmouth College and former Bank of England member, added: "the political consequences of a (euro) break-up could have far-reaching consequences if the Germans refuse to pay for other countries. "
 

Quote:

"

- The euro/franc and euro/yen currency pairs are down along with Asian equities. The French banks are not doing well. The credit default swap for France has crossed the UK default swap. Thus, a problem has formed in the continental eurozone... and it could spread beyond its borders.

- Investor sentiment indicators are deep in negative territory, so with the S&P500 testing the 1040 level, a pullback in risky assets is quite possible. We forecast a consolidation in the 1050-1100 range, after which the decline will resume.

- The Fed's Beige Book is published tonight. Also today there are elections in the Netherlands. The German Constitutional Court on Friday will give its opinion on the PIIGS bailout plan for the country. "

 

Thank you - please continue.

 
Tentative JPY
BOJ Press Conference




10:00am EUR
Italian Trade Balance

-1.03B
-1.34B
10:30am GBP
CPI y/y

3.5%
3.7%
10:30am GBP
Core CPI y/y

3.0%
3.1%
10:30am GBP
DCLG HPI y/y

10.3%
9.7%
10:30am GBP
RPI y/y

5.0%
5.3%
11:00am EUR
German ZEW Economic Sentiment

48.7
45.8
11:00am EUR
ZEW Economic Sentiment

41.2
37.6
11:00am EUR
Employment Change q/q


-0.2%
 
11:00am EUR
Trade Balance

1.7B
0.6B
11:00am GBP
Inflation Report Hearings




11:00am GBP
CB Leading Index m/m


1.0%
12:15pm USD
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks




2:30pm CAD
Labour Productivity q/q

1.4%
1.4%
2:30pm CAD
Manufacturing Sales m/m

0.3%
1.2%
2:30pm USD
Empire State Manufacturing Index

20.1
19.1
2:30pm USD
Import Prices m/m

-1.1%
0.9%
3:00pm USD
TIC Long-Term Purchases

77.3B
140.5B
Tentative USD
NAHB Housing Market Index

22
22
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