Trading probability - page 15

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avatara >>:

Где тогда вероятность - тема топика?

Which stop or take profit is better can be argued endlessly, but it makes no sense without considering the events whose probability you are calculating. In the most general terms, if you have a large number of events and a limited number of positions that you can open, a strategy with small values of TP and SL will give more profit. If the SL or TP are too big, then either pseudo-win or lose trades will clog up the entire available buffer.

 

Colleagues, here's a very similar idea I'm following:

http://forextechnologies.ru/for/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=28

 

I don't know any maths at all. A little arithmetic, mental calculation, basic trigonometry, geometry and algebra... Yeah, I also know how to make matchsticks, I don't know if I should...

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If we're talking about probability trading, it makes no sense to calculate the probability of a RUNNING entry! What is there to prove, if, other things being equal, the ratio of TR and SL is simply different and determines the probability in each individual case.

BUT! While the probability of a smaller profit (in each separate case) will be higher than the larger stop - the total mathematical expectation for N trades will certainly go down:

N*TP/N*SL < 1

this is where mathlab is concerned.

Only non-random entries, and only after that the TP/SL ratio can shift the probability in the right direction.

Besides, only non-random entries allow you to get the effect of shifting TP/SL > 1, because it increases the probability of a move to a higher profit, which in turn improves the overall expectation of a trade.

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So don't do XY-zoney - look for profitable, favourable, probabilistic entries to trade....)))

 
mikfor >>:

Коллеги, вот очень похожая идея, за которой я наблюдаю:

http://forextechnologies.ru/for/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=28

God, what profound nonsense)))
 
Bullshit or not, it hasn't yet merged, and even has growth.
 

why is it nonsense, it's an obvious example,

the author tilted the overall equal probability in favour of profit by non-random entries, he says he uses some simple analysis to enter,

but it is of little use, a sharp jump in profits - it's good luck on the general decline, and then bang - and it goes back to the beginning,

inefficient analysis, stalling.

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