It's impossible to make money on Forox!!! - page 9
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Half an hour ago I made a .hst file with random ticks (first quote 01.01.2008 and number of ticks per hour was taken from Eurodollar)
Opened it in MT4
What is not a real H1 chart ?
Then tell me why do we need all sorts of levels and macros, if you believe that time series of quotes are random? Because it's obvious that neither TA, nor waves, etc. will help to make a profit on a random series.
p.s. And the random variable was taken with what distribution? :)
What's not a real H1 chart ?
It doesn't really look like it to the eye. But instrumental measurements will show it for sure.
If you want to hide the fundamental difference, then you're playing with words by calling both a prediction.
Or do you really have no idea what you're talking about? >> Well, no, I don't.
I'm done talking.
I didn't sign up for the groupie.
>> with grasn... play.
What!!! Again? And the peace agreement? So should I go dig the hatchet?
>> Uh-huh. And me along with it. )))
Shit. I'm not going to argue with anyone. I don't feel like answering either, I'm going to repeat myself. Those who have questions - first let them look at that thread.
Seryozh, well, I have no desire to start this fuss. Everything has already been said there. I have nothing to add.
It was the other way round as well, (it's already difficult for me to describe it) they were decomposing the quotation stream for a certain period of time into some statistical deviations or something like that and it turned out to be no different from the cube emissions. From this I have made for myself [...] it is possible, having gathered some history, to begin to apply thehanalysis and predict the results of future throws
Yes, we know these arguments. Yes, in certain sections the real chart is visually indistinguishable from the generated one (probably a Wiener process). And vice versa, the synthetic process shows all TA shapes.
So, does it mean that the price is always random? No. It only tells you that classical TA is ineffective and in the long run only allows you to slowly drain.
If you have a crisis of ideas, take a little rest at first, and then try to look at the price with an open mind, forgetting about all the standard indulators and TA methods (well, almost all of them). Try to look for yourself only logically reasoned answers with the application of mathematics, not necessarily higher mathematics. Maybe then you will be able to catch the cat by the tail?
Ask yourself the simplest questions first.
What is the SMA, i.e. what does it actually show in, say, growth? (Anything but the behaviour of the current price. Can you give us a formula?)
Why does the SMA very often go up and the price goes down? (Again, the answer is in the language of formulas.)
Can the SMA on very different price patterns behave qualitatively the same? (Of course it can.)
And the most important questions: Are there any conditions that allow us to say something definite about where the price will go on, say, the next bar? On what principles can this price prediction be based? Again, only a rigorous mathematical answer will do, and not classical TA reasoning about higher trends, channels, patterns, etc.
The more you understand the true mathematical limitations of conventional indices, the more you will understand which direction to go. More precisely, you don't.
Uh-huh. And me along with it. )))
Shit. I'm not going to argue with anyone. I don't feel like answering either, I'm going to repeat myself. Those who have questions - first let them look at that thread.
Serez, well, I have no desire to start this fuss. Everything has already been said there. I have nothing to add.
So organize a branch and try to prove your assertions. I will be glad to read your arguments.
P.S. I have seen that branch.
I'm done talking.
I didn't sign up for the groupie.
>> play with grasn.
Not really sure what you didn't sign up for? :о)))
PS: Although, no, please don't open your subconscious, just in case.
The purpose of this experiment is this:
If looking at a randomly plotted chart (+7pips or -7pips on each tick), I don't notice anything special, then my trading from wags and all sorts of other niceties is comparable to flipping a coin.
The task is to understand : what will catch the eye, what is wrong with this chart?
Then maybe play that card.
I don't really understand what you didn't sign up for? :о)))
PS: Although, no, please don't open your subconscious, just in case.
I don't mean that in an offensive way, rather in a ... hilarious way