Classical thechanalysis doesn't work any more. What works, maybe quantum? - page 20
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CLASSICAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOES NOT WORK.
Classic TA is based on methods developed before the advent of the computer. It is clear and easy to use. Training of traders starts with it. It is based on postulates - trend, correction, signal. It was very popular and showed good results till 2006. With the development of market theory, it was superseded by more modern methods of time series analysis, such as: neural networks, cluster analysis, quantum analysis and rhythm dynamics.
(from Trader's Encyclopaedia 2052)
Not recognising BP as non-stationary will not change and it will remain as a dynamical non-stationary process.
If you pay attention, you will notice that the quoted text had a personal focus. If one thinks the price is non-stationary, then one must think TA is not working. Otherwise it is schizophrenia. That's what I clarified with the person.
The strength of TA is that it does not go into the statistical characteristics of BP, but goes the other way - patterns: there is a crossover of two MAs - there is a signal. A profitable trading system can be built on the basis of patterns and there are many examples (see the Championship).
The Championship has not proved anything - see Monkey Championship.
A pattern, you say? Well done! First words on the point. So the intersection of the two MAs.
Let's code it, run it through the history of anything, statistically evaluate the results and get 50/50. I.e. the pattern is guaranteed not to work, there is no such pattern.
If you pay attention, you will notice that the quoted text was personal. If one believes that the price is non-stationary, one must believe that TA is not working. Otherwise it is schizophrenia. That's what I clarified with the person.
nonsense. Non-stationary simply means that the estimates of the underlying statistical characteristics do not converge, but actually change over time. It certainly doesn't mean that TA doesn't work.
nonsense. Non-stationarity simply means that the estimates of the main statistical characteristics do not converge, but actually change over time. It certainly does not mean that TA does not work.
Yes, I went a bit overboard there. Got hung up on random rambling. I.e. the phrase should be that a believer in the random walk of price cannot believe in TA.
Yeah, I overreacted here. I am fixated on random rambling. I.e. the phrase should be that a believer in the random walk of price cannot believe in TA.
Well faith has nothing to do with it. Any theory or model is not the truth - it is only a tool which can be useful in one situation or another. Therefore the creators of the theories which for example were based on a price model like SB or SB with drift do not say that it is true and that TA does not work on this basis. They are just premises and assumptions to build a theory, which may be useful sometimes, but never claiming categorical statements like "everything else doesn't work and is bullshit".
CLASSICAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOES NOT WORK.
Classic TA is based on methods developed before the advent of the computer. It is clear and easy to use. Training of traders starts with it. It is based on postulates - trend, correction, signal. It was very popular and showed good results till 2006. With the development of market theory, it was superseded by more modern methods of time series analysis, such as: neural networks, cluster analysis, quantum analysis and rhythm dynamics.
(from Trader's Encyclopaedia 2052)
Throw this encyclopaedia away. By the definition of technical analysis (analyzing a chart of quotes to make a decision), everything listed from neural networks belongs to technical analysis.
If Papa Carlo carved a mechanical Pinocchio with a knife from a log (and his friend Giuseppe started doing it with an axe), and Pinocchio lost five gold pieces, it does not mean that the Kolomna wooden palace cannot be built with an axe and a knife (and even 300 years before that):
Well said!
I would also like to add, a common slogan:
If you lose your deposit, it does not mean that Forex is a scam, that technical analysis does not work, it does not mean anything other than that LOSS IS YOU, and you should not shout about it so loudly.
That's exactly what you're doing: if you have a profit for 5 years, then TA works. If you had 55 years, you could talk about some significance of this fact, but this is an accident, on the basis of which you draw global conclusions.
))) Nah, I like this guy! He pokes, rudely and behaves in general, as befits a classic - I'll shit myself, but I will not give in!
My friend, up to 1000 trades a day on Forts says something to you (on average, somewhere around 400)? That's only on forts on index futures. On mamba, of course, much less frequent, but still. And I'm not an investor.
What 5 years? 5 years is the time when I simply have no other source of income - can you read? It does not mean that I started trading in 2004))). Well, fuck it, let it be 5. Do you still believe in arithmetic, I hope? Multiply it. Not enough? Sorry! ))) What time do you get it, the billionth time? I'm sorry.) You know, there's an intelligence test where you have to continue a series of numbers. So you can continue it after 10 to the 9th. Even if that row is 1, 2, 3, 4... So you'll say, "Doctor, it's a small sample! It's all just a fluke! That's where you'll die with the doctor. Counting. )))
Don't mess with my head - you understood everything perfectly and just went unconscious. (All right. Have fun with it. )))