EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 912
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Published 09:24 02/02/2010
Hello!
Yesterday the market corrected after falling on almost all fronts against the dollar.The USD/JPY rose to 90.91 during the American session, almost 100 pips above the low.The JPY weakening and the demand for risky instruments was boosted by US data showing a significant increase in business activity in the country.
The ISM index in the USA in January came to 58.4 (the forecast was 55.7). US Constructionspending index was -1.2% in December (the forecast was -0.5%).
Support was also given to the so-called "commodity currencies": Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. The Euro/Dollar is stable around 1.3920. The main focus of investors this week is the publication of the US labor market survey, which is scheduled for Friday.
The Euro/Dollar is trading in a range of 1.3850 - 1.3920. The 1.39 level acted as a stopgap to yesterday's recovery. The strategy range of 1.38 - 1.44, which implies expectations for the pair's recovery, has been updated for today. In this case the initial recovery target is the level of 1.4150.In case of decrease the level of 1.38 will provide support. A further decline is fundamentally important, because in this case the pair will have a long downside risk (benchmark is the beginning of March). However, the April option contracts indicate a range of interest of 1.35 - 1.50. A more detailed analysis suggests that the current decline will be limited to the range of 1.3850 - 1.35. Importantly, the pair has now almost reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 04.03.09 - 25.11.09 uptrend. An upward correction is likely from here. The next significant Fibonacci levels are located near 1.3760, 1.3630 and 1.3515.
On AUDUSD, during the RBA decision, the pair dropped from 0.89 to 0.88, which is a strong support, however a further decline to 0.84 is likely.
Have a good day.
FIBO Group MFH Analyst, Michael NersesovИменно евро-аусси?? Там вроде в прогнозах про него не было. Я бы селлил. :)
Perhaps they knew something or calculated something. A rate cut will now indeed ensure the pair's uptrend. At least to the border of the channel.
I flipped on it yesterday. Very fortunate, I had three sales.
Who doesn't need to, don't read....:)
EUROPEAN CURRENCY MARKETS TEHANALYSIS:
Dollar/yen pair heading towards 91.55-92.05
LONDON, Feb 2 (ANI). /Dow Jones/. Moving charts for 24 hours:
Spot quotes: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot at 05.44 GMT 1.3927 90.80 1.5941 1.0585
Three-day trend Down Up Down Up
Weekly trend Down Up Down Up
200-day scol.cp 1.4334 92.45 1.6203 1.0531
3rd resistance 1.4053 92.05 1.6080 1.0723
2nd resistance 1.4017 91.55 1.6050 1.0644
1st resistance 1.3939 90.94 1.5982 1.0625
Pivot point* 1.3907 90.44 1.5929 1.0581
1st support 1.3886 89.99 1.5894 1.0553
2nd support 1.3851 89.76 1.5851 1.0525
3rd support 1.3801 89.14 1.5834 1.0500
Quotes on the spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot on 06.09 GMT 0.8734 126.36 1.4735 0.8798
Three-day trend Lateral trend Down Down Down
Weekly trend Down Down Down Down
200-dn cfm 0.8856 132.42 1.5071 0.8604
3rd resistance 0.8855 128.38 1.4782 0.8960
2nd resistance 0.8794 127.28 1.4770 0.8924
1st resistance 0.8767 127.08 1.4755 0.8890
Pivot point* 0.8730 125.74 1.4716 0.9177
1st support 0.8686 125.81 1.4723 0.8785
2nd support 0.8631 125.30 1.4702 0.8737
3rd support 0.8603 124.45 1.4696 0.8681
2 February. /Dow Jones/. The euro/U.S. dollar pair is showing corrective gains from Monday's low of 1.3851 and there is room for further consolidation towards the 1.4000 level. However, the bearish investors who are now dominating the market will try to limit the rise to 1.4017 because a strong break-up there will form a "bearish failure" at 1.3851. The 1.4017 area also represents a retracement level of the 50% fall wave from 1.4195 to 1.3851. In order for the pair to target the low of 1.3851 again, it needs to break through 1.3886. The bigger picture still favors the pair to fall to new 10-11 month lows below 1.3801 and to an area of accumulated support levels at 1.3650. At the time of writing the euro/dollar pair was trading at 1.3923.
- Written by Francis Bray, Dow Jones chief technical analyst for Europe; translated by PRIME-TASS; +7 495 974 7664; dowjonesteam @ prime-tass.com.
Axel analysis on the levels posted above:
EUR/USD during the day: The pair is showing corrective gains from last Friday's low of 1.3851 and could continue to consolidate up towards 1.4017. However, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside and a drop below 1.3886 would again target the pair lower, making 1.3851 vulnerable.
EUR/USD on the weekly chart: Downtrend.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair during the day: The pair continued to rise from the Jan 27 low of 89.14 and the confirmed higher low of 89.76 created potential for further gains towards the projected target levels of 91.46 and 91.55. The upward momentum is strengthening and a further rise towards 92.05 is also likely. Only a fall below 89.99 would argue in favour of a decline to a higher low of 89.76.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair on the weekly chart: Uptrend.
GBP/USD during the day: The pair is rising from Monday's bullish hammer figure low at 1.5851 and threatening to close the gap lower at 1.5982 on the daily chart. However, the rise is corrective and should be capped by the 1.6050 level or the completed bear-flag pattern low at 1.6080. A downtrend dominates and a break below 1.5894 would again target the pair sharply to the low of 1.5851.
GBP/USD pair on the weekly chart: Downtrend.
US Dollar/Swiss Franc pair during the day: The pair is consolidating below last Friday's high of 1.0644 and is likely to trade in a range from that level to Monday's low of 1.0553. Given the strong underlying uptrend, the balance of risks is tilted towards a break above 1.0644 towards the 1.0723 wave equality target. Trading below 1.0553 would provide limited downside potential towards 1.0500.
Euro/British Pound pair during the day: The pair made a break above 0.8745 on Monday, which eased its short-term downward tone and contributed to further gains towards the lower high of 0.8794 reached on January 25. "Bullish divergence" on the daily chart supports this rise from the low of 0.8603 reached on January 28 and a break of 0.8794 would open the way to the upside around 0.8855. At this point, a retest of 0.8603 is not expected in the event of a fall.
Euro/British Pound pair on the weekly chart: Downtrend.
Euro/Japanese Yen during the day: The pair on Monday broke out of a wide bullish absorption pattern, weakening the dominant downtrend, and aimed for resistance levels at the lower high of 127.08 and at 127.28. However, only a rise above these levels will change the tone of the pair to positive and create the potential for further corrective gains towards 128.38. A fall below 125.30 is needed for the pair to return to 124.45, the low from which the recovery started.
Euro/Japanese Yen on the weekly chart: Downtrend.
Euro/Swiss Franc pair on the day: The pair is consolidating the recovery from 1.4635 shown on Friday following the intervention that took it to 1.4770 and a break above 1.4738 would create the potential for a retest to 1.4770. However, the rally is essentially a corrective one and a break above 1.4723 will be controlled again in the short term by the down marketers, who will target the pair at 1.4696-1.4702.
EUR/Swiss franc on the weekly chart: Downtrend.
Aussie/U.S. Dollar on the day: Contrary to the upside signal on the Japanese candlestick chart, the pair made a break-down to new short-term lows below 0.8790 and is targeting the reactive low of 0.8737 reached on December 23. The dominant downtrend tone is gaining strength and the balance of risks is shifting towards a break below that level towards down channel support at 0.8681. Only a rise in the pair above Tuesday's high at 0.8924 would negate the downside outlook.
Aussie/Dollar: Downtrend.
Действительно, нах такое постить ?
Why are you pissing off the man?
It's not just the pros on this forum.
For me, as a layman, this is useful information.
Ладно, если считаете, что засоряю эфир, могу остановиться...
don't stop.
you're doing a good thing!
The only two people who think you're clogging up the airwaves
They're like pros and they're not interested.
but most people are interested and it's good to know.