EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 732

 
I can't add anything clever to the analysis. I don't think there are any signs of a EUR collapse and therefore, so far, only a drawdown of maybe 200 pips more. I put a short on EUR/JPY. EUR/USD will become clearer on Wednesday.
 
vic2008 писал(а) >>

Although I would like to see some kind of confirmation figure on the diaries. :)

A pattern on 123 will do for you, where the price goes like a locomotive, in 75% of cases it is a sure sign of descending by 100%, with the possibility of detachment of carriages in the process.

 
Helex >> :

The pattern at 123 will suit you, where the price rushes like a locomotive, in 75% of cases it is a surety of going down another 100%, with possible detachment of the wagons as you go.

I guess that's it! I even dare to suggest that the price will go with option A if gold continues to fall or B if not. (H4 TF)


 

Hello all, by the way, after the lull and waiting on this thread for 1.53 and this prediction didn't work... everyone just went quiet... is it not important to make squeaks after such a move?

***

In general, the latest U.S. unemployment figures are crap, the next statistic will be worse. The drop in unemployment, it's a New Year's Eve hiring spree.

Fundamentally, you may think that in the run-up to the end of the year, there will be a drawdown in many assets, after the banks and corporations close their annual balances and the data is released...

 

The up-movement is a matter of time, the only thing left is to find out the starting point of the movement. What we saw at the end of Friday 4.12.2009 is a logical wave - the movement and the turning point is at 1.4820, as I have already described it. But till the divergence change on H4 is not observed, so we can assume that the wave from D1 will be working now. But in any case the change of the global movement should take place only when the divergence changes from one type to another. In the present case on H4 and H1 we do not see it yet. Only on M30 the attempt of change of a trend - but in my opinion it has a local character.

According to the growth forecast there is a pattern to the movement point 1.532 on the B1, but taking into consideration the error, it is at least 50 pips lower and the start point may move with the above mentioned.

 
Forsage писал(а) >>

The up-movement is a matter of time, the only thing left is to find out the starting point of the movement. What we saw at the end of Friday 4.12.2009 is a logical wave - the movement and the turning point is at 1.4820, as I have already described it. But till the divergence change on H4 is not observed, so we can assume that the wave from D1 will be working now. But in any case the change of the global movement should take place only when the divergence changes from one type to another. In the given case on H4 and H1 it is not observed yet. Only on M30 there is an attempt of change of trend - but in my opinion it has a local character.

According to the growth forecast there is a pattern to the movement point 1.532 on the B1 but taking into consideration the uncertainty it is at least 50 points lower and the start point may be shifted taking into consideration the above mentioned.

Illustrate this statement on previous trend changes.

 
Forsage >> :

The up-movement is a matter of time, the only thing left is to find out the starting point of the movement. What we saw at the end of Friday 4.12.2009 is a logical wave - the movement and the turning point is at 1.4820, as I have already described it. But till the divergence change on H4 is not observed, so we can assume that the wave from D1 will be working now. But in any case the change of the global movement should take place only when the divergence changes from one type to another. In the present case on H4 and H1 we do not see it yet. Only on M30 the attempt of change of a trend - but in my opinion it has a local character.

As for the growth forecast, the model to the point of 1.532 on the B1 is already formed, but considering the uncertainty, it is 50 points lower and the start point may move with the above mentioned.

Will the divergence not work in this scenario? Do you think we will move slowly towards 1.532 ?


 
The figure above shows the divergence indicator. It shows very well different types of divergence - one type is class A, the second type is class C - the hidden divergence, I do not remember which type is indicated by which line type, and I do not want to get into the code, my head is full of other tasks. If we carefully compare it with the zigzag, we will see the change of trend and change of the divergence. In danom case we use divergence on stochastic with parameters 5,2,3, but if reroute stochastic on 3,2,3 it will be displayed point of divergence change 27.11.2009 12:00 (specific point 8:00).
 

Has anyone used this index _http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/russian/marketwatch/sentiment/_

Does it show the market sentiment well?

 
EricGR писал(а) >>

Hello all, by the way, after the lull and waiting on this thread for 1.53 and this prediction didn't work... everyone just went quiet... is it not important to make squeaks after such a move?

***

We have decided it is time to sell the euro )))) >> we'll see about that.