Why does any strategy only work successfully for a limited time and then stop working? - page 3
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Does it happen to everybody?
strategy is usually speculation. The speculator has a statistical advantage at the expense of other participants. His systematic profit is the systematic loss or underperformance of other participants (not necessarily the same participants). It is an inefficiency and has some liquidity depending on the amount of money involved by the inefficient participants. It is not infinite. If too many people see it and try to use it, they negate it. The more it exists, the more participants will notice it and join the giveaway. And over time, the participants change, so do their methods and inefficiencies. Ineffective ones change even quicker as there's nothing left to give away.
It seems to me that she will not be able to adapt to such conditions.
You have awakened a sporting interest in me. I will definitely try to feed random numbers to the system we're talking about, if I create one. :)
......... if one is created by me. :)
>> :)
>> that's a pretty great phrase.)
Yeah, if I haven't created it, it doesn't mean that no one else has. I'm sure if someone has, they won't share such a great system with me or you. I don't think they will share it either. ;)
"Maxwell's demon is an important element in the mental experiment of the great English physicist Maxwell. It was designed to attack the second principle of thermodynamics. In Maxwell's thought experiment, the demon was placed next to a hole in a bulkhead separating a vessel filled with moving molecules. The demon's job is to release fast molecules from one half of the vessel into the other half and close the hole in front of the slow ones. The ideal demon is thus able to create, without any effort, a very high temperature in one half of the vessel and a very low temperature in the other half, implementing a perpetual motion machine of the second kind." - explanation from the Strugatsky story "Monday Starts on Saturday."
Doesn't it remind you of anything?)))
Yeah, if I haven't created it, it doesn't mean that no one else has. I'm sure if someone has already created one, they won't share it with me and you. It is also unlikely to spread about its existence. ;)
If created, the generator is not random.
If it's random, it hasn't been created yet.
The mathematicians will tell you that better.
If created, the generator is not random.
If random, it is not yet created.
Better mathematicians can tell you that.
Must be very boring being a mathematician... Calculated everything in advance, realised it wouldn't work, hanged myself....
If created, the generator is not random.
Behind every random generator there is a real, often deterministic process. Perfect random is fantastic)))
Again it's all happening now. So you think that the indices show the future, but the forex lags behind, right?
What are you talking about?
How can you predict a chaotic process?
How can you predict price movement in a process with millions of conditions?
Even if there was ONE condition, it is still coffee grounds guessing.
You can only speculate with a certain probability of movement in one direction or another, and that in the present +/- delta over the time interval. Why do you need to make forecasts at all? If the price moves according to the strategy - go for pips!
I don't rule it out... Maybe some people enjoy predicting in the distant/close future, I'm not one of those.
The major reserve currency (I mean the quid) DICTURES the position. Which sector (currency or stock) the money supply of the major reserve currency flows into determines the fall or rise ( respectively ) of the major currencies.
If you understand this the sooner, the sooner you will stop losing your money. It's as simple as that.
And you have to work in the present - all the rest: predictions, neuro... - is rubbish.
Good luck to all.
Geez, screw thermodynamics - I'll explain it on my fingers.
There is a stream of trades opened at random (Maxwell's gas), there is an EA (demon) that follows the MM rule: fix profitable positions (skip high energy molecules) and cut unprofitable positions (low energy ones). The result is a perpetual profitable EA (perpetual engine of the second kind).
Where's the catch? Same place as in Maxwell's paradox. To understand the energy of a molecule, you have to measure it. The result is that entropy does not decrease. And to understand the loss of a trade, that loss has to be recorded. Also, spread, slip, DC cheating, etc. are added to the costs. But nevertheless TS, based on this principle, can be profitable. And no TA assuming determinism.