Why does any strategy only work successfully for a limited time and then stop working? - page 2

 
LeoV >> :

Do you think there are eternal strategies, i.e. "unconstrained"?

Do you think not? Such strategies correspond to adaptive PBX, adaptive ACS.

 
LeoV >> :

Do you think there are perpetual strategies, i.e. "unconstrained"?

Yes, of course there are. Anticipating the next question, I'll answer right away - for example, buy-and-hold on stocks or indices.

In order to better understand the original question, you must first answer the question: "Why is this particular strategy earning money?"

Perhaps the strategy's earning today is just a fluke, which may or may not happen again tomorrow or even the day after tomorrow. That is, it is not a strategy at all. Accordingly, a strategy is only one that is eternal. When you can explain why it earns money. All the others are just a game of chance.

 
I'll say the same thing: what are you basing your TS on? If it is based on the momentary characteristics of a particular market, then the TS will also be momentary.
 
timbo >> :

Perhaps the strategy's earning today is just a fluke, which may or may not happen again tomorrow or even the day after that. In other words, it is not a strategy at all. Accordingly, a strategy is only one that lasts forever. When you can explain why it earns money. All the others are just a game of chance.

Indeed it is. Amen

 
Tsyrus >> :

I agree with sayfuji about market volatility...

In my experience, strategy development involving adjustment to any parameter/merchandise, from the intersection of two wagons to neuro-packages, leads sooner or later to the same result (see Olenenok's post).

All the main movements on the currency market happen for one big reason - the flow of money supply (of course in USD) from one sector of economy to another - from the currency market to the stock market and back. With the growth of the stock market the dollar weakens (money supply decreases on the currency market and increases on the stock market) and the euro and others grow as a consequence. When the stock market falls, the opposite happens - the quid rises and the major majors fall. I personally determine this trading direction by the direction of the major stock indices (DJ30, S&P, Nik225) as well as gold and oil. While there is a major currency the quid and the American stock market - all other currencies move only with the "permission" of the quid.

Maybe someone will find it useful....

Good luck to all!

Again, this is all happening now. So you think that indexes show the future, and that forex is lagging behind, right?

 
Think about why there is a correlation between the markets, where it all comes from, all these hedge funds and glamorous technical analysis.
 

Glamorous TA - Score!!! I'll have to remember that.

Truth be told - the TA that is usually given to the inquisitive at all sorts of training events is exactly that. Where do the analysts come from? The same place. So you listen to their glamorous TA.

Not so many people actually use TA, the rest think they do, because they don't understand what they actually use and what you can expect from TA and what is blah-blah.

 
joo >> :

Do you think not? Adaptive PBXs, adaptive ACSs correspond to such strategies.

And how would they behave if they were fed with random quotes?

 
coaster >> :

And how would they behave if they were fed with random quotes?

The question is a sensible one. They will behave well. The task of the ACS, for example, is to maintain process parameters within a given range under constant exposure to "random" factors. It seems that under such conditions, such a hypothetical ATC would open at the boundary of the "random" quote channel.

 
joo >> :

The question is a sensible one. They will behave well. The task of an ATC, for example, is to maintain process parameters within a given range under constant exposure to "random" factors. It seems that in such conditions, such hypothetical ACS will open on the border of the channel of "random" quotes.

It seems to me that it would not be able to adapt to such conditions.