Why does any strategy only work successfully for a limited time and then stop working? - page 6
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Uh-huh. Another eternal value! ))) What a parsley mystery in the French manner (Polichinelle).
What is a trend? I think I gave a definition in the post. (By the way, many people simply cannot define a trend - I checked it once, but at the same time they are discussing synapses, market spectra, and God knows what else.)
Within the current trading range, you determine that there are meaningful fluctuations (the threshold in the zigzag as a function of volatility, for example, to visualize this), and then in accordance with the definition of the trend. However, I am repeating myself. Of course it is not the only way and not even the best one. But again these are details.
Flat - well, it is clear. - Or do you also need a definition?
That's not the question, it's about predicting, predicting or understanding - in short calculating - when they will start........
everything is brilliantly simple.
in fact, we have been using the perpetual motion machine - the hydroelectric power plant - for a long time now, haven't we? sometimes it breaks down... well, let's fix it.
Of course, but there is still a way to go, like from an arithmometer to a computer.
(piezo-cells, photocells, thermocouples) flag in the hands of nanotechnology
Flat - well, understandable. - Or do you need a definition too?
It doesn't make any sense. If you call yourself a coward, get in the back, dear man. We are waiting for the definition of a flat.
By the way, I haven't seen the definition of a trend yet. Probably I did not watch it very carefully.
P.S. I found it:
Trends, which are known to be upward or downward movements of extremums (peaks / troughs).
This? So a flat (logical negation of a trend) is not an upward or downward movement of extremes (peaks/troughs). >> Right?
It doesn't make any sense. If you call yourself a coward, get in the back, dear man. We are waiting for the definition of a flat.
By the way, I haven't seen the definition of a trend yet. Maybe I did not look it well.
No windows, no doors, crawlspace full of pickles. >> it's a flute. :)
That's not the question, it's about predicting, predicting or understanding - in short, calculating - when they will start........
No. It's not a question of predicting when they will start. That's for you to go to a fortune teller then.
The question is to understand that they have ALREADY started. "You don't have to try to predict the market. You have to follow it."
And the earlier you understand, the more precise methods of trend identification, the more profitable your TS will be. Naturally, it is necessary to understand that it is a trend before it ends.
Well yes, there are individual comrades who need to get soaked to the skin to identify the rain. Or better yet, to be sure, wait until it's over. They are the ones who claim that all TAs are crap and work on the left side of the chart. I don't argue with them - that's how it works for them. But it's their problem, not TA's.
There are, of course, techniques for figuring out when to expect a rush, but it's all so unreliable. Although, the statement that the narrowing of a trading range precedes its breakout is certainly true. But there is something of the assertion that the rope is simple. There are all sorts of indicators such as Demark's Sequence, Linda Raschka has it, I do not remember its name. You never know. In principle, with a strict MM this will also work. But with an efficiency similar to that of a "demon".
However it is possible to understand at an early stage that a trend has begun with sufficient accuracy for profitability.
What is left to be understood is what is meant by "early stage"?
It remains to be understood what "early stage" means?
It remains to be seen what "profit" means?))
Early in, early out. To make the TS profitable, it is necessary to catch movements (trends) that would beat off the costs of the TS, including false entries. If we manage to catch 30% of average movements, it's a very good result. Even very good. You can soak your liver somewhere in a bungalow under a palm tree. In shorts and a cork helmet.
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That's it. Goodbye, everyone.
It remains to be understood what "profit" means?))
If we enter earlier, we take away more. In order for the TS to be profitable, we need to catch movements (trends) that would repel the costs of the TS, including false entries. If we manage to catch 30% of average movements, it's a very good result. Even very good. You can soak your liver somewhere in a bungalow under a palm tree. In shorts and a cork helmet.
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(Sighs) All right. Goodbye, everyone.
The profits are pretty clear ))))
Let me give you an example. We know that a trend is 500 pips (for example) and we catch such trends. 30% - this is 150 pips. That means we may miss 175 points at the beginning and at the end. So, we understand that a trend has begun and we open after 175 points. But the market turns around and goes the other way. Can that happen? - It could. So it's not as clear-cut as we'd like it to be.....)))
The profits are clear ))))
Let me give you an example. We know that a trend is 500 pips (for example) and we catch such trends. 30% is 150 pips. That means we may miss 175 points at the beginning and at the end. So, we understand that a trend has begun and we open after 175 points. But the market turns around and goes the other way. Can that happen? - It could. So it's not all as clear-cut as we would like it to be.....)))
"including false leads."
What word in that sentence is unclear to you?))
Get some sleep. >> that's what. You and me both.
you mean dividends on stocks and index shares (DIAMONDS etc.) ?
... ... and dividends too. But also share price appreciation. Despite its simplicity, buy-and-hold is a real trading strategy. It's not the best strategy, but it's a real strategy. It has the answer to "why it's profitable" and it's a timeless strategy.