So where is the price heading? - page 3
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I'm not going to argue. So where is the price going -- how can you tell?
There must be some other way to ask the question. Maybe we should use the targets as a starting point?
After all, if we can figure out where the price is going, it does not really give us anything. Right now it is moving up and a second later one robot has run out of limits and left the market and the price is immediately going down without inertia. This is the example with the bollards, when they open at the bollards, they do not necessarily open in the direction in which the price is moving. The price has already moved. Or not.
That is, the current price movement is weakly informative. What is informative is a history of some sufficient volume. Mashka, by the way, is the extraction of some information from history. The information can be in the external environment, in the news, in indicators, from acquaintances in London and New York, etc.
On the system: Sharpe coefficient is very low, it is practically absent, but it shows the stability of the system, i.e. the standard deviation of the results of transactions from their performance. the results of your transactions generate a random series. If you take ACF from res. transactions, I assume that it will tend to zero - which means you do not know whether you have profit tomorrow or not. a series of transactions must be persistent and naturally directed upwards. do not despair, all this and should be, and the problem is this:
It is a random walk model, so stochastic trends and flat patterns appear, they simply can not not appear.If someone says that he has found some frequencies, fibo-levels, patterns, using a sophisticated neural network or something else he deceives himself or deliberately lies, thus misleading beginners who lose their deposits.
>> Well, well.
So there is still hope, which is good, but it won't get you very far if you look at technical analysis.
Look at how the cumulative sum of random numbers pushed back from the "psychological level" of 1000 pips.The generator worked better than the real series.Note that the ranges on the top and bottom are roughly the same.There is a figure - head and shoulders.
In reality, the levels are different...
in reality levels are different...
And what are the "real" levels? If you add the kotier level to zero, then something will be close to zero in the EUR and in the MSG.
Comparing a random number generator to a dollar-euro pair is very bold. I am a big fan of random number generators myself, but I disagree with you in this case. Here is my personal rule of determining where the price will go next. It works particularly well at medium-term fluctuations of several days:
IF PRICE GOES DOWN, IT GOES UP.
IF THE PRICE GOES UP, IT WILL GO DOWN.
The beauty of this statement is in its illogicality, which means that it can actually work, especially on the Euro. Here is a simple system that uses this approach to the market. The only optimizing filter in it is Stop Loss, but even without it it gives positive results although much worse:
Testing period 2000 - 2009, on daily bars, the position size is fixed at 1 lot. You may speak about randomness of 2 761 trades as much as you like, but rhetoric cannot supplant reality:)
..
The beauty of such a statement is that it is illogical, which means it can actually work, oddly enough especially on the euro.
..
This is somewhat similar to one of my first TS - if N bars up - then sell, if N bars down - buy. It gave phenomenal results when optimizing stoploss\take profit and N. Too bad we couldn't make a million on it =\.
FOXXXi писал(а) >>
That's what I call a forex enthusiast!
I wonder if you talk to girls the same way. With spectra, bar graphs and charts? :)))
And what are the "real" levels? Where do we calculate, where do we adjust?
I honestly don't know...
For example, here's a graph of the movement of a portfolio of currencies for about a month... at the initial point in time, positions are open on the portfolio and we can see how the profits are moving...