Building MTS on price chart analysis is UTOPE!!!
Have they gone down the drain or what? =)
>> you don't answer a question with a question.
I think that analyzing one chart and using it to build an MTS is utopia, and I realized that a long time ago. Many EAs write excellent MTS for EURUSD, but lose money using another currency, for example USDJPY. Why, for example, in the next year the EURUSD chart will not change to USDJPY's one and vice versa? That's why I think that it's impossible and even dangerous to analyse a single price chart. I just draw a randomly chaotic chart by hand, will your EA be able to profit from it? And the price chart may take exactly that form. When the EURUSD is rising, who can answer the question (by analyzing only the EURUSD chart), is it EUR rising or USD falling? So how can we perform deals without knowing the nature of this growth? If the MTS gives a buy signal, may we look at EURGBP? Maybe this pair is falling, so GBP is rising even stronger and the MTS may work better for GBPUSD?
So I suggest we discuss this topic.
1. Do you use methods to evaluate the market in general?
2. What methods do you use?
1. No. I do not need to analyze the whole market to play one pair.
2. -
I only use Woodie CCI on one chart and I don't care what the others do. Each pair develops differently, although I do not deny that there is a correlation between them. But still only one chart only one time frame. No comparisons with older periods and currencies.
I have such a system.
I haven't used them and don't plan to. And it's even scary to imagine such a system... how many computers would have to "chew" the data in order to analyze it all, and even predict it... a path to nowhere, although correct, because the Japanese predict the weather on many parameters with a probability of 99.999999%... they have a whole hangar of computers, they call it a supercomputer.
Of course it is possible to bypass the problem and analyse indexes, but this is not reliable, as many have said, indexes do not reflect reality for a long time.
Good luck!
I think that analyzing one chart and using it to build an MTS is utopia, and I realized that a long time ago. Many EAs write excellent MTS for EURUSD, but lose money using another currency, for example USDJPY. Why, for example, in the next year the EURUSD chart will not change to USDJPY chart and vice versa? That's why I think that it's impossible and even dangerous to analyse a single price chart. I just draw a randomly chaotic chart by hand, will your EA be able to profit from it? And the price chart may take exactly that form. When the EURUSD is rising, who can answer the question (by analyzing only the EURUSD chart), is it EUR rising or USD falling? So how can we perform deals without knowing the nature of this growth? If the MTS gives a buy signal, may we look at EURGBP? Maybe this pair is falling, so GBP is rising even stronger and the MTS may work better for GBPUSD?
So I suggest we discuss this topic.
1. do you use techniques to assess market conditions in general?
2. What methods do you use?
i.e. do you deny the postulate that all information is reflected in the price?
In a calm market it may be ...,
but when the prices of the underlying economic fundamentals (like oil, copper, ...) change sharply, the buildings built on them start to fall (or wobble)
that is why a simple leading correlation with major instruments (charts) allows you to take a bite out of
I have not used and do not plan to use. And it's scary to imagine such a system... how many computers have to "chew" the data in order to analyze it all, and even predict it... a path to nowhere, although correct, because the Japanese predict the weather on many parameters with a probability of 99.999999%... they have a whole hangar of computers, they call it a supercomputer.
Of course it is possible to get around the problem and analyse indices, but that is not reliable, as many have said, indices do not reflect reality for a long time.
Good luck!
So you deny the postulate that all information is reflected in the price?
in a calm market it might ...,
but when there is a sudden change in the price of the foundation of the economy (like oil, copper, ...) the buildings built on it start to fall (or wobble)
Therefore a simple leading correlation with major instruments (charts) allows to bite off pieces
First, you don't have to have a super system and a super computer to make predictions (although of course you can have a sophisticated one). Let's consider the simplest example and take the simplest system by the example of MASD, let's assume we open only by its signals. Obviously this system is not good, but if a buy signal appears on EURUSD and USDJPY as well, may be we better buy EURJPY.
Here are the options.
1. If the signal on both pairs is correct, we are in the black
1.1 EUR goes up, yen stands still, we are on the plus side
2. The EUR stands still, the yen is up, we are on the plus side
3. Euro goes down, yen goes up, we're flat.
4. Euro rises, the yen is down we are on the plus side.
5. Finally, the only losing option is when both of them start to fall, i.e. the signal on both of them should turn out to be positive.
What are your thoughts on this?
6. euro in place - yen down
Also down.
So the number of pluses and minuses is equal.
And in total we are in minus position by spreads-swaps-commissions-requotes-and other brokerage tricks
//----------------------------
Besides. Crossovers often run on their own. And not as a sum of dollar components
I am a supporter of chart analysis and study of statistical patterns on the chart.
As a matter of fact. The situation with yen pairs and crosses . In my opinion is very promising.
Exactly. You can build a good trading system on the research of all "yen-euro-dollar-pound" charts.
(I apologize for my writing style. My comma button "glitched")
Of course it's possible to bypass the problem and analyze indexes but it's not reliable - many people speak about it already, indexes don't reflect reality for a long time.
Delusion...
It depends on how the indices are calculated. You don't need a supercomputer for that. I have a single core centrino that can handle it.
Although, of course, at first the non-optimized program required a lot of resources.
I think that analyzing one chart and using it to build an MTS is utopia, and I realized that a long time ago. Many EAs write great MTS for EURUSD, but lose money on another currency pair, for example USDJPY. Why, for example, in the next year the EURUSD chart will not change to USDJPY chart and vice versa? That's why I think that it's impossible and even dangerous to analyse a single price chart. I just draw a randomly chaotic chart by hand, will your EA make money on it?
The chart is not very chaotic. The technical analysis is still quite applicable to the chart analysis. There is a general trend + some noise. To build a trading system it is possible to use one currency pair. But in any case several timeframes should be analyzed simultaneously. Then it will be enough. Of course, the information from other pairs will be useful for more accurate entering and exiting, but nevertheless I wouldn't overthink it. I've made an indicator (attached in the attachment), multicurrency MACD, apply them to several pairs and tune to the needed currency pairs and see how they move during simultaneous analysis.
And to assess the state of the market in general - it is better to apply FA. A good example in this case is the result of Gorz at the 2008 Championship. When analyzing the FA, he predicted that the FUY would fall for several months and disabled the BAY trades in his EA. That said, his SELL entries easily fit into a trivial MA cross.
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I think that analyzing one chart and using it to build an MTS is utopia, and I realized that a long time ago. Many EAs write excellent MTS for EURUSD, but lose money using another currency, for example USDJPY. Why, for example, in the next year the EURUSD chart will not change to USDJPY chart and vice versa? That's why I think that it's impossible and even dangerous to analyse a single price chart. I just draw a randomly chaotic chart by hand, will your EA make money on it? And the price chart may take exactly that form. When the EURUSD is rising, who can answer the question (by analyzing only the EURUSD chart), is it EUR rising or USD falling? So how can we perform deals without knowing the nature of this growth? If the MTS gives a buy signal, may we look at EURGBP? Maybe this pair is falling, so GBP is rising even stronger and the MTS may work better for GBPUSD?
So I suggest we discuss this topic.
1. Do you use any techniques to estimate the market condition in general?
2. If so, which ones?