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The complexity of the organisation of a subject's intellect is the maximum possible "assimilation" of the subject's model... It is therefore useless, however... :)
I don't get it, but I get it :)
Maybe we should "ground" the task a bit, or we'll "fly away")
Practical task. We trade EURUSD and we only use the TA, the target is 100 points, stop 50 points and the final target is to make profit. What we should look at, what indicators with what parameters we should use and the main thing, why? How do you solve the problem? Does it have a solution? Is it just a guessing game with further verification (or maybe just adjustment?) in a tester/optimizer?
We should probably "ground" the task a bit, otherwise we will "fly away")
Practical task. We trade EURUSD, we only use TA, the target is 100 points, stop 50 points, the final target is to make money. At
I think the target selection approach is wrong.
Well, you have chosen 100 p. as a target (now it is 1000 points ;) ), and the move made 300 points, i.e. 200 points are lost. Or, maybe it was 80 points and after correction you will get all of it back without trailing stop, and with fixed trailing stop you will save only part of it.
This is a little bit more complicated, we touch upon these questions periodically, but hardly anyone will tell us their secrets without interest.
But the main thing is not only to determine the price but also to determine the direction of your trading, why?
I have recently come to the conclusion that for forecasts it is more correct (competent) to use indicators using sinusoids and their derivatives (although of course they also need to be "cleverly prepared")... and here's why:
Once I searched the web, trying to find something about Hodrick-Prescott filter and came across this interesting article
a lot of interesting stuff there, but it wasn't what they said about the Hodrick-Prescott filter that caught my attention, it was this passage:
The remarkable Russian mathematician Evgeny Slutsky published an article entitled "Cyclical fluctuations as a result of adding random variables" in 1927, which was then unnoticed by economists. Slutsky showed that adding random variables in a certain way can produce distinct cyclical oscillations.
And here's where it gets more detailed:
Slutsky concludes: "The addition of random causes gives rise to wave-like series, which tend, over a greater or lesser number of waves, to imitate harmonic series composed of a relatively small number of sinusoids, exhibiting an approximate (more or less, depending on the circumstances, strict) periodicity. After a greater or lesser number of periods, a particular mode becomes disordered, with the transition to another mode occurring either gradually from one "average" mode to another of the same kind; or a particular mode may be followed relatively strictly, with the transition from one mode to another occurring more abruptly near particular critical points".
This caught my attention, because it most accurately corresponds to what I've always seen in practice - if you adjust to a certain area an indicator, working, say, by divergence - for a while it works on 5 points, but then the market changes its characteristics and everything "breaks"...
In general, at the moment I think Slutsky's model is the closest to reality...
Maybe we should "ground" the task a bit, or we'll "fly away")
The practical problem. We trade EURUSD and use the TA only, the target is 100 points, the stop 50 points, the final target is to make money. What we should look for, what indicators we should use and what parameters we should follow? why? How do you solve the problem? Does it have a solution? Is it only a guessing, with further check (and maybe just a fitting?) in a tester/optimizer?
With this post I disproved the usefulness of FolVix program on another forum, which is now being actively sold on the Internet for money. It's supposed to be a system of entering by cluster charts (if intraday) from previous strong levels of max. volumes for the day, week, contract, taken from the CME with short stops at 10 pips (if they were strong levels, the price wouldn't break through them even by a pip).I think this post will be relevant, I don't have time to edit it. I think I should base my calculations on price formation, to understand the complex behavior of prices. I wrote from memory, from my head, so there may be errors.
"Why doesn't the levels work? First, there is a huge SPOT market and it is ridiculous to take into account the volumes on the EUR futures separate from the SPOT. I think everything is clear here.Price has crossed the magic combo chart upwards, stochastic showed divergence and you decided to take 300 lots from the market at the price that you see in the terminal, but you will not open at it, because the amount of time.In the book of bids is the following picture of providers (offerers are future unfilled sell orders): 1.2815-113 lots, 1.2816-52 lots, 1.2817-12, 1.2818-178, 1.2814-current price (this is the price of the last transaction).The current price is 1.2818-55 lots.NOTE YOUR MONEY IS GONE, even though there was a BIG LOT SELECTION, because there was a netting and the OFFERS took your money. there is nothing on which the price CAN BE RETURNED.If a much bigger man or a bunch of small speculators come along and dump 400 lots in selling rush, moreover, if the market is thin and there are few bid volumes in the nearest bids, they will push the market down even harder and you will be in deficit.That's why the spread on a real exchange is floating, because the market liquidity is constantly changing, new bids come in, old ones are removed, the spread widens and narrowed, and "gaps" can occur in the prices. The most interesting thing is that when you close your position, you will move the market back down about the same amount, passing through the nearest bid.In other words, you haven't moved the market in pure form, but everything will depend on the current liquidity, but the difference will be only for pennies.When the opinion of most market participants at a certain period of time coincides, the price moves longer in one direction (trends). So the crash happens, because few people want to piss against the wind. If there are no buyers at all, the government intervenes and closes the market to win time and money.No strong levels of volumes there physically, as there is a constant mutual offset, the price has already "eaten" all their movement and accounted for all opinions. and now try to pick up this mechanism mat. formula, indicators, levels, waves, etc..Now about the brokerage companies with fixed spreads: in order to survive competition, they reduce spreads and have to filter quotes for themselves. The frequency of quotes per time unit decreases, giving time margin for clearing positions and opening/closing deals at profitable prices.You may use just one or two ticks when you have a good trade.
P.S. My opinion about the market. i.e. how you can physically describe the end result of the market (what we see as a tick chart). financial markets - it's a Brownian process. Brownian process - it is a chaotic straying of random particles with displacement. displacement - is the coincidence of the opinions of most market participants in a given period of time.As for the volumes, it would be better to use the market slider than to look at what the price has already calculated; the slider shows the current situation, and even the future orders that haven't worked yet but can be removed at any moment.
"First of all, there is a huge SPOT market and it is ridiculous to separate the volumes of fx Euros from SPOTs.
:)
An even more magnificent description. Well done, that's what I call it. ... But don't think of "very rich uncles" as flat as a snuffbox. :) There's your mistake.... And then there's the offers and bids in the "cup" on forex hanging out like madmen.
Overall good description, but not about reality. :)
Maybe we should "ground" the task a bit, or we'll "fly away")
Practical task. We trade EURUSD and we only use the TA, the target is 100 points, stop 50 points and the final target is to make profit. What we should look at, what indicators with what parameters we should use and the main thing, why? How do you solve the problem? Does it have a solution? Is it only a guessing, with further check (and maybe just a fitting?) in a tester/optimiser?
In essence that is good only for the tester/optimizer in the real market cannot obey it.
™ Forex is a complex system, technical analysis uses only the price, it is blind and therefore, it is the reason why it doesn't develop, fundamental analysis is more accurate in the Forex market. if you have the right information, the fundamentals won't fail. it is a consequence of the fundamentals and, due to its lack of information, it cannot predict the appearance of fundamental factors that will subsequently affect the price.
And your suspicions Figar0 about the fact that it's a hoax are absolutely accurate BUT recently created a topic
Where I said that the only way to get something from the ta is to combine all his achievements into an information flow correctly systematized
I am doing it now, people do not seem to understand it, although for me it is necessary to find a small entry point, but one should understand what it means Figar0 if you want to cooperate
:)
Even more magnificent description. Well done, that's what they call it. ... But don't think of "very rich uncles" as flat as a snuffbox. :) There's your mistake.... And then there's the offers and bids in the "cup" on forex hanging out like madmen.
All in all a good description but not about reality. :)
"Ayaaay, loss" (s), well now I definitely can't pass the casting :). But seriously, whether these uncles are flat or not, it makes no difference. The law is the same for everyone: if you have taken something from the handicap, give it back, and if you need something, give it to them; the market is an exchange market, not a stock market.
:)
Even more magnificent description. Well done, that's what they call it. ... But don't think of "very rich uncles" as flat as a snuffbox. :) There's your mistake.... And then there's the offers and bids in the "cup" on forex hanging out like madmen.
Overall good description, but not about reality. :)
>> You are twisting your words to draw attention to yourself, but you figured it out, or you did not read my post carefully. about the rich uncle is just an example, although here is the reality of recent events about the rich uncle in Germany who owned a large network of pharmaceuticals, who sold his shares to Volkswagen without knowing that the company will support the government, lost over a billion dollars and threw himself under a train. there is also a French uncle, who entrusted his money to an investment company and committed suicide in a hotel.
The rich uncle is just an example, but here is the reality of recent events about the rich uncle in Germany who owned a large network of pharmaceuticals, who sold his shares to Volkswagen without knowing that the company will be supported by the government, lost more than a billion dollars and threw himself under a train.
I'm not twisting it, I just know it like the back of my hand... :)
And where in your examples is the "rich uncle" ... For forex ... :)
Anyway, my comment is only for those who can understand it. And it's really a very subtle idea, which is important ... in understanding how it works... Otherwise, I wouldn't even open my mouth ... I just want to help those who have reached a certain level... Otherwise I just don't give a shit... Why, can you give me one reason why I would want to be anonymous while constantly poking fun at the members of this forum... in front of them... I can't even imagine your model of my behaviour. I repeat, you've simply never seen, or even approximately have no idea what interbanking looks like. :) And the game of banks is not him... :)