_Market description - page 24

 
There is a STATISTICA e-tutorial on this subject, which classifies both the validity of measurements and the significance of measurements, and there is no need to rediscover this. Our task is simpler - to create workable implementations... With implementations we see only two ways - we develop an absolute strategy using "long numbers" and then the key to the solution is in the area of money management, as probability of winning and losing in infinite time will tend to uniform distribution, or the strategy uses stable statistical dependencies in the key role, then we need a plan for its use or methods of strategy execution control, in order to estimate the lifetime of such a strategy.
 
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There's an electronic tutorial STATISTICA, which classifies both the validity and significance of measurements and there's no need to reopen it. Our task is simpler - to create workable implementations... With implementations only two ways can be seen - develop an absolute strategy using "long numbers" and then the key to the solution is in the area of capital management, as probability of winning and losing in infinite time will tend to uniform distribution, or strategy uses in a key role - stable statistical relationships, then you need to have a plan for its use or methods of strategy enforcement, in order to assess the life of such a strategy.

If only there were a translation of what you wrote. It would be really good. It seems to be in Russian, but it's not clear.

Well at least the first line. What do you measure? And how? And then we'll talk about relevance and credibility.

 
Prival 14.03.2009 00:43 There is an electronic tutorial on the Statistica website, or rather several of them, take it and study the material - it is all written popularly - it will be more productive than requiring me to explain the subject area in which you do your own research, after which we can speak the same language.
 
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Prival 14.03.2009 00:43 There is an electronic tutorial on the Statistica site, or rather several of them, take it and study the material - all written popularly - it will be more productive than demanding explanations from me in a subject area in which you do your own research, then we can speak the same language.

You won't believe it. I studied. I even taught others how to use the statistics package. It was a long time ago.

Just answer the question. What do you measure? What is the value?

 
Prival 14.03.2009 01:08 These are general definitions. If we talk for example about trend strategies, although in general there are many variants - but all these strategies are essentially based on stable statistical dependencies, as a category - there is for example a methodology - I select a market or several - simply grouping the training and testing range, using it for example I determine the current set of MA - in general it is no problem to search MA in a wide range and identify MA with the least number of changes of trend direction relative to the MA period - that is actually the detection of effective lag and not the nonsense, which is based on the MA period.
 
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Such a beautiful phrase you gave, and to a simple question, a vague answer.

A simple example to make you understand.

What do you measure? - Voltage.

What do you measure? - A voltmeter?

To what accuracy? 1%

And only then does the work of statistics begin, assessing the reliability, significance of measurements, etc.

I'll ask again (although I think it's already for nothing). What do you measure with this curve, which is visible on the screen ? How do you measure it?

Z.U. Statistics does not measure, but evaluates.

If you're interested and don't mind me asking for ...implementations...long numbers...where does the uniform distribution come from...stable statistical dependence...method of control...

the words are beautiful, I want to know if there is something behind them.

 
Prival 14.03.2009 02:25 Set some range from candle 1 to candle N in the loop. In the range of this cycle we construct an array of values of the calculated muves from the value of 1 to the value of one tenth of the range itself. For each cycle of the muv values the number of changes of the trend direction is counted. A muving that has a smaller ratio of the number of changes of the trend direction divided by its own period is the most relevant to the market. I will not write much - I have other things to do here besides having a good time, but I will try to answer as far as possible, but you don't have to tease me, I don't think I deserve it...
 
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Prival 14.03.2009 02:25 In the cycle we set a certain range from candle 1 to candle N. In range of given cycle we construct array of values of calculated muves from value 1 to the value of one tenth of the range itself. For each cycle of the muv values the number of changes of the trend direction is counted. A muving that has a smaller ratio of the number of changes of the trend direction divided by its own period is the most relevant to the market. I will not write much - I have other things to do here besides having a good time, but I will try to answer as far as possible, but you don't have to tease me, I don't think I deserve it...

Thank you, it is a pleasure to communicate with someone if they are knowledgeable, patient and polite in defending their point of view and giving explanations of their view of the market. That's very good, and I'm not teasing. I just want to check once again for myself whether I am doing the right thing. Do I understand what I am doing. When I ask you questions, I try to answer them first.

Let's move away from the market. Again I will take an example. There is a person and he has characteristics, height, weight, age, etc. For each of these characteristics there is a measuring tool, a ruler, scales and so on. By taking measurements we can say the person is 1m tall, weighs 200kg etc. (I purposely gave such figures, they make you think, how exactly did I measure ? Are my measurements reliable ?).

Now back to the market, this branch is called market description. And before we measure something (even if it's a lot of bags) we have to decide what we are measuring, what is the market characteristic ? (the set of these characteristics is the market description (see the example person)).

If there is no answer to this question, then we don't know what we are measuring. And whether we are doing it correctly. Again I will come back to a human being, we measure height with the help of scales, weight with a ruler, eye colour with a thermometer.) You have to agree that's not right.

So what do we measure with a taree ? are our measurements reliable ? what is the accuracy of these measurements ?

 
Prival 14.03.2009 10:39 Mashka measures the ratio of price changes over time - all this already exists, and here the parameter itself in the context of code to find the winning MA, although you can just call it effective, and the accuracy in this case is calculated by the ratio of the muv period itself to the number of bars and the number of trends that is directed muv movements with a given period, which muv forms at a given range of measurements, well, put it this way: WiningMA = NumberOfBars/(NumberOfTrends*PeriodMA) And the coefficient of reliability of the method is considered as follows: kWiningMA = NumberOfBars/PeriodMA When studying the same statistics I did not meet the use of this method and the choice of names is arbitrary, well let it be called like this.