Grail. The puzzle is an interesting theme.

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In English Code base I found a very original Expert Advisor which increases lots by Fibonacci number. The author suggested the positions distance between orders = 20 pips. S/l=10 pips. Of course, the stop works very often in this situation. By the search method I have found a good combination of distance=21 pips and stop 34; distance 55 and stop 34 work quite well as well but the number of profitable orders decreases though the risk is lower. With parameters 40/24 and set T/R limit of 250 pips a profit from an initial order of 0.02 ($20) reaches $434 with a risk of $4.8!

The conclusion is that the further the number of pips is and the smaller the distance between the orders, the more money the Expert Advisor makes, so we don't want to introduce T/R and S/l at all. The Expert Advisor is based solely on Fibonacci and is activated immediately by the market when switching only longs / only shorts. Also the author has set a variable position closure when the account reaches a certain size (he set $2000) when testing it should be increased multiple up to 100000.

I have to use a good trend indicator, preferably both long and short, which will give good entry (position opening) and exit points (closing).

Who has thoughts? Who has a good idea?

 
What's the point of writing in all the threads?
 
Kharin:
Why bother writing in all the threads?
I've persuaded you, I won't write in all the threads anymore, I wanted to attract more attention - the topic is really interesting. And I wrote in another thread, as a response to Sart's suggestion - post the algorithm - I will write an advisor.
 
Fibo:

It is necessary to insert a good trend indicator, preferably long and short, which will give good entry (position opening) and exit points (position closing).

If I had a good trend indicator, then why do I need that Expert Advisor, and why do I need the nonsense of increasing lots by Fibonacci? I wish I could use moon phases, it would be even more useful, and the EA's work would be even more mysterious. And the history matching method can give any result, but it won't do any good.
 
Fibo:
The subject is really interesting.
For everyone...

Many people are not optimistic about increasing the lot after a loss. Try to run the Expert Advisor with the "good" settings from another starting point. And the interval is longer - illusions usually disappear.

 
real-trader писал (а):
Fibo:
The topic is really interesting.
To whom it may be...

Many people are not optimistic about increasing the lot after a loss. Try to run the Expert Advisor with the "good" settings from another starting point. And a longer interval - illusions usually disappear.

When the second lot with parameters 40/24 is opened with 0.02 lot which I analysed, the possible loss is 1.6$, for the first order the possible loss is 4.8$ and when the third order triggers, the stop is already closed in profit. Here is such a progression. Once again I would like to emphasise that the strategy is initially profitable, but to optimise it we need a trend indicator for entry/exit points.
 
timbo:
Fibo:

It is necessary to insert a good trend indicator, preferably long and short, which will give good entry (position opening) and exit (position closing) points.

If I had a good trend indicator, what for do I need that Expert Advisor and why would I need this nonsense with increasing lots by Fibonacci? I wish I could use moon phases, it would be even more useful, and the EA's work would be even more mysterious. And the history matching method may give any result, but it won't bring any profit.
I agree, but read it again: 250 pips t/p with 0.02 lot takes 434 quid profit with 4.8 quid risk, with second order - 1.6 quid risk. A simple order opening takes 4.8 quid risk, 50 quid profit. Convincing?

Let's take simple mathematics - science is precise, unlike lunar phases.

We opened 40 points, lot 20 quid - our profit on the first order is 20*0.4=8 quid. The worst scenario - in this place triggered the second order another 20 quid - a total position of 40 quid and as bad luck - stop! Our risk is 40 * 0.24 = 9.6, but the initial profit on the first order of $ 8 total 9.6-8 = 1.6 dollars. We will not calculate the third order - we see that it is going to profit. Where does $434- come from? At t/p 250 points we will have 7 open orders (0.02; 0.02; 0.04; 0.06; 0.1; 0.16; 0.26). The first order will take 250 pips, the second 210, the third 170, the fourth 130, the fifth 90, the sixth 50, the seventh 10). Again to the maths, profit = 50 (20*2.5) + 42 (20*2.1) + 68 (40*1.7) + 78 (60*1.3) + 90 (100*0.9) + 80 (160*0.5) + 26 (260*0.1) = $434 with the risk I wrote.

Which is more accurate mathematics or lunar phases here?

 
Fibo: just read it again: a 250 pips t/p with 0.02 lot takes a profit of 434 quid at 4.8 quid risk, the second order takes a risk of 2 quid. A simple order opening takes 4.8 quid risk, 50 quid profit. Convincing?

If everything is so nice, why does he need a trend indicator?
 
Figar0:
Fibo: just read it again: at 250 pips t/p with 0.02 lot takes profit 434 quid at 4.8 quid risk, the second order takes risk 2 quid. A simple order opening takes 4.8 quid risk, 50 quid profit. Convincing?

If everything is so great, why do we need a trend indicator?
The problem is that it should detect entry points by itself, the Expert Advisor works when the market is either buying or selling. That's what I want to change with the indicator. At the moment it's just a good capital management system to make an Expert Advisor out of.
 

My impressions:

1. imagine a situation where you have enough margin and all that armada starts working:

2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1316 sell stop 377.00 GBPUSD at 1.8775 sl: 1.8809 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1315 sell stop 233.00 GBPUSD at 1.8830 sl: 1.8864 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1314 sell stop 144.00 GBPUSD at 1.8885 sl: 1.8919 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #131313 sell stop 89.00 GBPUSD at 1.8940 sl: 1.8974 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1312 sell stop 55.00 GBPUSD at 1.8995 sl: 1.9029 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1311 sell stop 34.00 GBPUSD at 1.9050 sl: 1.9084 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1310 sell stop 21.00 GBPUSD at 1.9105 sl: 1.9139 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1309 sell stop 13.00 GBPUSD at 1.9160 sl: 1.9194 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1308 sell stop 8.00 GBPUSD at 1.9215 sl: 1.9249 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1307 sell stop 5.00 GBPUSD at 1.9270 sl: 1.9304 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1306 sell stop 3.00 GBPUSD at 1.9325 sl: 1.9359 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1305 sell stop 2.00 GBPUSD at 1.9380 sl: 1.9414 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1304 sell stop 1.00 GBPUSD at 1.9435 sl: 1.9469 ok


2. The wonderful Fibonacci property doesn't work in this EA. It is just for fun!


P.S. In general - an interesting Expert Advisor, but only for research purposes.

 
VBAG:

My impressions:

1. imagine a situation where you have enough margin and all that armada starts working:

2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1316 sell stop 377.00 GBPUSD at 1.8775 sl: 1.8809 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1315 sell stop 233.00 GBPUSD at 1.8830 sl: 1.8864 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1314 sell stop 144.00 GBPUSD at 1.8885 sl: 1.8919 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #131313 sell stop 89.00 GBPUSD at 1.8940 sl: 1.8974 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1312 sell stop 55.00 GBPUSD at 1.8995 sl: 1.9029 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1311 sell stop 34.00 GBPUSD at 1.9050 sl: 1.9084 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1310 sell stop 21.00 GBPUSD at 1.9105 sl: 1.9139 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1309 sell stop 13.00 GBPUSD at 1.9160 sl: 1.9194 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1308 sell stop 8.00 GBPUSD at 1.9215 sl: 1.9249 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1307 sell stop 5.00 GBPUSD at 1.9270 sl: 1.9304 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1306 sell stop 3.00 GBPUSD at 1.9325 sl: 1.9359 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1305 sell stop 2.00 GBPUSD at 1.9380 sl: 1.9414 ok
2008.04.05 19:26:26 2007.02.16 09:29 ElitejeFibovTraderlv2l1u.1 GBPUSD,M30: open #1304 sell stop 1.00 GBPUSD at 1.9435 sl: 1.9469 ok


2. The wonderful property of Fibonacci does not work in this EA in any way. That's it - just to screw it on!


P.S. In general, it is an interesting Expert Advisor, but only for research purposes.

That is why I changed my initial lot to 0.02 instead of 1.0. Then the 14th order is 7.54 instead of 377.0 And the order after the second is breakeven!!! The main risk is the first order (read my calculations above). And that's why I'm writing about the need for a trend indy. By the way, in the T/p 250 pips example I am considering, from an order of 0.02 the total position becomes 0.66 with the last order of 0.26. Can't argue with the maths!
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