Martingale is not evil at all, it brings profits - page 2

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You don't look at the profit factor, but at the statistics of the trades. If the probability of the next trade being profitable is higher after a loss or two, then God forbid you should double your bet, and if there is no such connection, then martingale is a game with fire.
 
timbo:
We should not look at the profit factor, but at the statistics of deals. If the probability of the next trade being profitable is higher after a loss or two, then God forbid to double the bet, but if there is no such connection, martingale is a game with fire.

Whether you look at the statistics or not, the variance doesn't matter. Despite any statistics and probability, it can easily give a series of both losses and profits.


Uniform distribution only happens in some PPPs. Market trends are not uniform.

 

Yura, what is the point of talking about martingale if there is a complete theory of OPTIMAL reinvestment, which considers as input parameters the prognostic ability of TS and instrument volatility, and at the output it gives a share of capital for reinvestment. Moreover, any deviation towards decreasing this fraction as well as increasing it will lead to shortage of profit. So, Martingale is a leftover from the table. What is the sense of paying attention to this problem then?

 
Neutron:

Yura, what is the point of talking about martingale if there is a complete theory of OPTIMAL reinvestment, which considers as input parameters the prognostic ability of TS and instrument volatility, and at the output it gives a share of capital for reinvestment. Moreover, any deviation towards decreasing this fraction as well as increasing it will lead to shortage of profit. So, Martingale is a leftover from the table. What is the point of paying attention to this problem then?


This theory is as useful as an optimiser in a tester. The optimal reinvestment is based on historical data and is a fitting of history. The output is the optimal portfolio of yesterday or last year. And then the market does not stand still, it changes all the time, and as you correctly noted:
Neutron:


Moreover, any deviation either towards decreasing this share or increasing it will lead to underprofit.

It means that the optimized portfolio becomes sub-optimal, or even unprofitable.


I suggest reading N. Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness". It describes cases when successful traders used services of mathematicians and thus reduced probability of ruin to very insignificant values. And indeed, for a long time, due to optimization they managed to profit almost as in theory and for a long time. But then, despite all the calculations, the "black swan" still came. After all, any optimization discards the "black swan" and does not consider it, because it does not look optimal at all.

 

The disadvantage of martingale is that we significantly increase the risk and reduce the proportion of capital used in one initial transaction, i.e. using martingale we are always sitting on a powder keg which may explode.

 
Reshetov:

Martingale, combined with a trading strategy and portfolio trading, gives a profit on the real.

See details: http://bigforex.biz/load/2-1-0-170

And what are you trying to say, that this advisor can be used to trade?????

And this is a profitable Expert Advisor ??????


This is a loss of deposit. Trade on your own with your EA.

Test it on the Metakvots server and you will see.

 
lovova:

The disadvantage of martingale is that we significantly increase the risk and reduce the proportion of capital used in one initial trade, i.e. by using martingale we are always sitting on a powder keg which can explode.

Life is also dangerous because :


  1. Spreads like a sexually transmitted infection
  2. Ends in death.


That is why you have to live it so that it will not be painfully painful for the purposelessly emptied deposits

 
Reshetov:
Lovova:

The disadvantage of martingale is that we noticeably increase the risk and reduce the proportion of capital used in one initial trade, i.e. by using martingale we are always sitting on a powder keg which can explode.

Life is also dangerous because :


  1. Spreads like a sexually transmitted infection
  2. Ends in death


That is why we have to live it so that it would not be painfully painful for the purposelessly emptied deposits.

Yuri it's a good thing that if aimlessly drained deposits didn't turn out to be aimlessly wasted years .

I know a friend who is not a poor man, but he likes to live like a hen and eats like a goose.

 
lovova:


Yuri it's a good thing that if aimlessly drained deposits didn't turn out to be aimlessly wasted years .

There is no point in discussing it, because one should not protect oneself from a fate and from a prison. "Fooled by chance" is an example.
 
Reshetov писал (а): ...But then, despite all the calculations and calculations, the "black swan" still arrived...

Vesti 24 at 15-30: "A UK investment fund running a trading robot developed by Stanford University mathematicians

Stanford University mathematicians suffered a $1.5 billion loss. Researchers attribute what happened to the fact that the robot was operating according to a scientifically based market model and that the market is currently non-market."

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