Beginner trader working on a real account on Elliott Waves (invest - password enclosed)... - page 23

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Yurixx: If you want to test VTE in action, try it on a pair for which there is no obvious trend at the moment. How about EURJPY?
On a pair without a clear trend, the EWP might well give its (Principle's) legal verdict: stay out of the market. And it will not be a failure for the Principle. On the contrary, it will indirectly confirm the forecasts of other systems saying the same. That is, in this case, EWP in action is inaction by the one applying it.

The point of the Principle is not to give correct predictions at any given time, but to identify sets of the most likely scenarios and, in the case of a clear skew of some scenarios over the opposite or neutral ones, give recommendations for entry.

2 Sart: Sergei, you will finally convince me when you learn to properly defend your positions (according to the Principle). Nobody cancelled the black swans. Here is a quote (http://news.aif.ru/news.php?id=11810):
In the second half of the 1990s, LTCM was one of the leading hedge funds in the US. In 1994 it was partnered by Scholes and Merton. Together with Fisher Black, they developed the Black-Scholes option pricing model, for which they received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997. Black died in 1995, without waiting for the prize. The sophisticated operations developed by Scholes and Merton allowed the fund to raise huge funds and make big money. But because of the default in Russia, where LTCM conducted large-scale operations with GKO-OFZ, the fund lost $4 billion in a matter of months. It was saved from total collapse by a $3.6bn stabilisation loan from a consortium of 14 US banks.
According to Taleb's assertion (I think it referred to this particular foundation), it was an event equivalent to ten (!!!) sigmas, i.e. the blackest swan, blackest you could think of...
 
Sart:
Now I would just like to point out that in two months of careful observation I have not recorded more than two waves in one direction.
waves in one direction I have not recorded. I don't know what it has to do with this, but I have noticed that for 100% success I need 3 waves of one direction,
Ohhhh! That's more interesting. So it turns out that all sorts of classic structures, like 5-3, are actually a fiction. That is, VTE is not suitable for all instruments and therefore is not a theory at all. It is at best a phenomenology of some class of special cases. Well, I can agree with that. As well as the fact that this phenomenology can also be played profitably.
 
Mathemat:


Alexei, have a look at Sart's last post on the last page. Now that's a meaningful observation.

As for my suggestion, you misunderstood me. I wasn't talking about the pairs that are not trending. I was speaking about the pairs, where the behaviour is not evident. Maybe there is a trend but it is not obvious. If you want to say that for all of these pairs VTE offers to smoke bamboo, that is, VTE is able to give recommendations only where everything is already visible, then what is the point of such a "theory"? What can it do? Give levels? So it's not it, it's Fibo. And, in addition, the accuracy of these levels alas ...

 
I see, Yuri, what can I say. I don't even mention the fact that even the long-term wave markup is far from always obvious. About three years ago there was a discussion on the fxo forum about markup (at least on weeks, i.e. long term) on the oyre. Now I'm not so sure about its fairness. It seems that the only major, concerning the long term mark-up (c 1971) there is no discussion of it, is USDJPY. And that is only now. For all other major it is clearly a correctional one, i.e. absolutely unobvious (EWP since its founder concentrated almost all its problems in correctional figures, desperately trying to keep a pure five in a primordial form).

But Sergei's basic idea - "enter where there is a threefold confirmed movement - on the current working TF and on two higher TFs" - I like it. All that remains is to learn how to intelligently defend against black swans...
 
Yurixx: I wasn't talking about pairs that are not trending. I was talking about the pairs where the behaviour is not obvious. Maybe there is a trend, but it is not obvious.

It is usually obvious today what should have been done yesterday or a week ago. Often when we identify a trend, it is too late to enter. And if you have such a flair, why search for some tools and work out TSs at all? However, practice shows that most traders stand exactly against the trend. Take a look at the oandex:

The yellow line (USDJPY) is currently below the purple line (EURCHF and USDCHF). Obviously, not everyone is seeing the situation from the same perspective.

 
Mathemat:

But Sergei's basic idea - "enter where there is a threefold confirmed movement - on the current working TF and on two higher TF" - I like it.

There is no doubt that this is the right position. Moreover, it has been expressed many times on this forum. Nowadays, I think everyone understands that it's not enough to get a signal, you need to get its confirmation from at least two more senior telephones. It's the same thing.

By the way, Niroba has gone even further. He draws a wave pattern of three cyclically connected currencies and, if the wave pattern corresponds, he trades. Of all the things he said about his system, that was the most sensible and most constructive thought.

2 goldtrader

The situation with JPY on the picture is convincing that the belief in the Japanese government, which has prevented the JPY from appreciating for decades, is still strong.

 
Yurixx:

2 goldtrader

The situation of the yen in the picture shows that faith in the Japanese government, which has not allowed the yen to strengthen for decades, is still strong.

The yen is no exception: the dollar is actively buying against the franc, the eu and the yen, the eu is selling against the pound and the pound is actively buying against the yen. And all these positions are open against a clear trend. What foundation can explain this phenomenon? Or it is not necessary to explain it, as it is the answer to the question "why do 95% of them fail"?
 
Yurixx:
Mathemat:

But Sergei's basic idea - "enter where there is a threefold confirmed movement - on the current working TF and on two higher TFs" - I like it.

It is undoubtedly the right position. Moreover, it has been expressed many times on this forum. Nowadays, in my opinion, everyone understands that it is not enough to get a signal, you need to get its confirmation from at least two more senior telephones. It's the same thing.

It's more like this - if we have a trend on the oldest timeframe, we wait for the trends on two successively lower
timeframes coincide with the trend on the oldest timeframe...
Of course, there is still the question of choosing the tools to determine the trend and what is probably the key moment - to decide on the value of
of these sequentially nested timeframes.
 
goldtrader:
The yen is not an exception: the dollar is actively buying against the franc, the euras and the yen, the euras is selling against the pound, and the pound is actively buying against the yen. And all these positions are open against a clear trend. What foundation can explain this phenomenon? Or it is not necessary to explain it, as it is the answer to the question "why do 95% of them fail"?


I don't seem to have got it right in the picture. My understanding is that 25% are short USDJPY and the remaining 75% are long USDJPY. It means that 25% are shorting the dollar (long for the yen) and 75% are buying it (short for the yen). In other words, 75% are against the yen and for the Japanese government.

The same interpretation on EURUSD says: 35% are short on EURUSD (i.e. short on EUR or long on USD) and 65% are long on EURUSD (i.e. long on EUR or short on USD). In other words, most people do not buy USD against EUR, but sell. It is essential for interpretation whether the dollar is the base currency of the pair or not.

Am I wrong in this picture?

 
Yurixx:

Maybe I got the picture wrong ?

As far as I understand, the numbers mean the ratio of longs to shorts. So, for example, for EURGBP (I think :) ) it is 0.25
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