NATURAL INTELLIGENCE as the basis of a trading system - page 47
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A test of natural intelligence, eh?
Ok then, see you next Friday))
EURUSD prediction - movement inside the 1.4490-1.4900 box
Forecast on USDJPY - movement within the box 104.90-109 . 50
I don't know how you can think in numbers, I'm more comfortable with pictures. Lately I like this layout. Channel + psychologist level + speed and acceleration + signal energy (power of crooked hands :-))
No exact figures, but some strong pivot points can be seen here
to Prival
Sorry for the delay, the picture was erased, I was restoring it quickly. .
Hidden resistance levels - green horizontal.
Two regressions - yellow dotted line - regression on the tops, and red: "new history" regression.
Two parallel velocity lines straight across the bars. Between them is a resistor to identify the beginning of "new history" for the red regression - the intersection of the velocity line, from which the "new history" regression is drawn.
The box ceiling is under the red regression, and the same resistence line is moved parallel to the yellow regression=top regression.
The bottom of the box is secured by a strong hidden level - (green horizontal), which has already been tested. To test the hypothesis about the strength of this line there is an equidistant channel - blue dotted line, which showed the price in its lower third, now it is half-width.
There are no obvious shapes on the OBV indicator, i.e. the double top is NOT confirmed.
The Bollinger Bands width indicator shows a contraction on the downside and an expansion on the upside, i.e. the main movement is up or horizontal.
The conclusion is a channel.
Fundamental reasoning: winter, cold, oil for dollars, oil for euros, Japanese stocks for euros, ...Dollar started to rise with rising volume - gained elasticity.
Conclusion - up both Dollar vs Yen and Euro vs Dollar.
Conclusion - the channel.
Conclusion - up both the Dollar against the Yen and the Euro against the Dollar.
That is, if I understand you correctly, growth within the channel. If not, what do you call the word growth ? What does it mean in the numbers "both Dollar vs Yen and Euro vs Dollar" ?
2 SK
Sergei, can you give me a hint? I need to draw a curve from the script. Is drawing it by segments the only way or are there some more suitable solutions ?
There is also an option of drawing the line by a custom indicator. For this you need to send data to it. This can be done either through client terminal global variables or through a file.
to Yurixx
In the numbers, the floor/ceiling of the box is named in the forecast,
what is meant by growth is the following:
In the days of Harry Kissinger the Japanese yen was so cheap that it caused inflation of the dollar, At that time the Amerks repeatedly and publicly gave the Japanese their presidential mandate to revalue the yen in their defence. The Japanese were given a drop of relief for this in the unconditional surrender of 1945. The Japanese were even allowed to build a supercomputer under Kissinger. And last year they launched an aircraft carrier, a Japanese one, of course... Consequently, the Japanese needed a cheap yen to expand into commodity markets after that victory. Now the Japanese NiKey Index is galloping, and the Japanese are worried about one thing - namely the expensive yen could damage the precious R&D, R&D, STD carried out in Japan. High-tech" stocks are chattering. And on the other side of the Japanese export production looks like this: their production is largely moved to PRC territory and protected by the yuan, the same yuan also protects Japanese commodity production from rising oil prices. That means that Japanese merchandise exports are to a large extent dependent on the yuan and not on the yen. Here Bush Jr. a year ago publicly decreed to raise the yuan to make the US feel better about the "Japanese", but it didn't work out.
In terms of attitude to people Japan is the mirror image of the USA, in Japan they won't hesitate over mortgages. If necessary, the average Japanese will bend over backwards as and where they need to go, and won't even say bae. That is why Japan has had no desire to defend the high exchange rate for decades. This is the 101st time they are likely to increase the attractiveness of their securities with a low yen and high interest rate.......
Conclusion: the yen will be pushed down.
The Ameras won't like it economically, but they need it politically (the dollar is already flying low), but they will tolerate one quarter for the sake of a stronger dollar. Where will M1, M2 money run to? - First of all, to gold, secondly to the euro. Accordingly, a slight, so to speak, rise of the euro against all currencies... This will partially strengthen the dollar, it will also go up, but with the Euro lagging behind. It would be shameful for the Europeans to push the Euro further than 1.5, that is, unseemly in a decent house (this is fraught with the collapse of the world economy). That is, they will hang around the ceiling of 1.5, waiting for a balancing act.
The media has been pumped up about how currency fluctuations are allegedly hurting the global economy. The next step is to offer the world a hero currency that will save the world. Guess who it is?)
Conclusion: the Euro will now earn the image of a stable currency, supposedly neither rising nor falling at a strategic top of 1.5.
P.S. Question about the website. My site takes me 5 minutes to open paging (I'm at 128 speed, register is cool, facies is off) Is it just me or is it like that for everybody?
Korey, I don't have that - it's true, the speed is higher. You must be affected by the multidimensional NE :)
There is also an option to draw the line by custom indicator. To do this, you need to send data to it. This can be done either through global variables of the client terminal or through a file.
Yes, such an idea has occurred to me but I do not like it. But I must be wrong. The script can be drawn as an indicator without bothering with piecewise linear drawing. Thank you.
what is meant by growth, the following:
So there is no need to fear a global financial crisis, not to mention the collapse of the financial system ? Everything is under control and those at the helm are capable of handling it?
Frankly, I doubt it. Your analysis is clear and unobjectionable. My doubts follow from more general considerations. If everything depended on those "who benefit from it", a lot of events in human history simply would not have happened. Even now, the strain on the global economy is, it seems to me, too great to be solved by conventional means or at least with little blood. Though it certainly doesn't mean that everything will collapse tomorrow. Such processes may take several years, but now there may be some respite. However, this is just my opinion.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see which of us will be right. :-)
to Yurixx
When they talk on TV about which national currency is stronger, they appeal to male feelings, they call for shame but not to economic reason.
When the euro was converted to cash Thatcher said something like: "Thatcher said: "In Europe, problems are always created and later other countries have to solve them.
The iron lady was staring into the water. Indeed, the movement in the Eurozone, fight against globalism, then it affected the oil workers, and now it came to the so-called "global crisis". So, if there is a crisis, it is not for nothing, but has a purpose - to revise the results of World War 2. As a result, everyone is floating and yes, so that there is a reasonable hope of capitalism for the communists of the PRC, i.e. for a planned economy.
However, by Russian standards a crisis is an incomplete collapse, when everything is on the move but without a hitch, but by Western standards a crisis would be a loss starting at 5% !!!!
That is, we have a crisis when everything is gone, and they have a crisis when everything is just a little bit gone.
A failure of 5% depth we consider everything under safe control and they consider it a collapse.
But even that is unlikely to happen.
to Yurixx
...................
But even that is unlikely to happen.
Yes, very figurative, and even funny. :-) But
When the US stock market went down after all the bubbles in the autumn of 2000, the Dow shrank 1.5 times, the S&P500 1.8 times, and the NASDAQ almost 5 times. Agreed, 5 times is not 5%. Meanwhile, they did not say anything about a crisis, much less a global one. So, a minor recession that only lasted 2 or 3 quarters. So your story about 5% sounds more like an anecdote than a real judgement.
About the TV, I didn't understand what was being said. I don't watch or listen to it. Especially financial and economic topics - they're a day or two late and they say such things... In general, except for very few shows and rare movies, you should not watch it - it's not healthy. Continuous and frank washing of brains, intended for unconscious or unconscious condition of the spectator and appealing to the lowest feelings and primitive reactions. I quite agree with you there. I do not understand what it has to do with it.
And what about the Euro - it's a revelation for me! It turns out that the euro is supposedly the source of the global crisis? Who would have thought it! And the purpose of all this is "revision of the results of World War 2" ? Yeah ... I have great respect for Marx, but it is not his traces that are visible here, but rather Vladimir Ilyich's. But my views differ considerably from his. Alas.