NATURAL INTELLIGENCE as the basis of a trading system - page 46

 
Sart:
Let's check how this theory works. I recently opened a short position at 105.61 on the real account according to this theory.
The theory gives me the first target around 103.00-103.50 (Alpari quotes).
The opening signal is so strong that in case the price goes even 100 pips higher than the opening one, I will just strengthen my position.

On the yen you play against the dollar and on the euro you think the dollar will strengthen. That is, of those three currencies, the euro is the weakest. Surely the euro-yen chart should confirm this somehow?
 
Yurixx:
Sart:
Let's check how this theory works. I recently opened a short position at 105.61 on the real account according to this theory.
The theory gives me the first target around 103.00-103.50 (Alpari quotes).
The opening signal is so strong that in case the price goes even 100 pips higher than the opening one, I will just strengthen my position.

On the yen you play against the dollar and on the euro you think the dollar will strengthen. That is, of those three currencies, the euro is the weakest. Surely the euro-yen chart should confirm this somehow?

Let's try to put our thoughts about it (...some kind of support) 'Who works with more than one symbol at a time? And then we'll rejoice at success of the new trader of the 7th level.
 

This is also because there are other fundamental factors. For example, oil is tied to dollars, there are large long-term inter-state relations, contracts in dollars. There are exports and imports. A weak dollar is as unprofitable for American exporters as a strong euro for European importers. There are currency reserves of states in dollars.

In short, a very high euro will not be allowed. It's not to anyone's advantage. I think somewhere above 1.5 we should expect intervention. They're more likely to agree than to let themselves take the reins. It's kind of like... natural intelligence:)

 

A test of natural intelligence, eh?

Ok then, see you next Friday))

EURUSD prediction - movement inside the 1.4490-1.4900 box

Forecast on USDJPY - movement within the box 104.90-109 . 50

 
SK. писал (а):

This is also because there are other fundamental factors. For example, oil is tied to dollars, there are large long-term inter-state relations, contracts in dollars. There are exports and imports. A weak dollar is as unprofitable for American exporters as a strong euro for European importers. There are currency reserves of states in dollars.

In short, a very high euro will not be allowed. It's not to anyone's advantage. I think somewhere above 1.5 we should expect intervention. They're more likely to agree than to let themselves take the reins. It's kind of like... natural intelligence:)


Judging by the EURUSD chart, the two bulls' horns have already been broken off at 1.5. But I also think that the bulls will go there again for the 3rd time and there everything will be solved. A strong psychological level + double top (two horns) has already happened. But I think the trend since September 2006 cannot be stopped that easily.
 
SK. писал (а):

This is also because there are other fundamental factors. For example, oil is tied to dollars, there are large long-term inter-state relations, contracts in dollars. There are exports and imports. A weak dollar is as unprofitable for American exporters as a strong euro for European importers. There are currency reserves of states in dollars.

In short, a very high euro will not be allowed. It's not to anyone's advantage. I think somewhere above 1.5 we should expect intervention. They're more likely to agree than to let themselves take the reins. It's kind of like that ... natural intelligence :)


If it were all like that ... But the reality is a little bit different. Oil is another factor in the steadily increasing US trade and payment deficits. I don't think the oil tycoons of the Middle East will long accept as payment the paper that the US printing press is printing faster and faster. It is the ratio of imports to exports that has long been dragging the dollar down, but the economic hubbub of America and Europe think they can settle everything with their hands. That is the problem ! They do succeed, but only for a while. As soon as they go too far against the laws of economics, the seesaw breaks and the whole process gets out of control.

Whether they benefit from it or not, whether they want to or not - no one will ask them about it anymore. The wave of collapse washed away not such clever people. Unfortunately, their names then fall out of history. Students say the Great Depression.

The national banks of developed countries sold more than half of their gold reserves in the last 10 years. Currency interventions have been shown to be completely pointless and dangerous. There was only one time when it helped - when Sorros decided to drop the mark after the pound. Here it helped against Sorros, but never against imbalances (especially strong ones) in global finance and economics. And as for making an agreement among themselves, of course, but with the market, only in their dreams. That is why they are objective laws. :-)

 
Prival:
Judging by the EURUSD chart, the two bulls' horns have already been broken off, somewhere around 1.5. But I also think that the bulls will go there again for the 3rd time, and that will be the final step. A strong psychological level + double top (two horns) has already happened. But I think the trend since September 2006 can't be stopped that easily.


The trend has been going up not since 2006, but since the spring of 2001. And in 2005 it was just a strong correction. You can't go up and up all the time. But it is over now, now you can. :-)))

Korey:

So, until next Friday))

EURUSD prediction - movement within the 1.4490-1.4900 box

Forecast on USDJPY - movement within the box 104.90-109 . 50


Next Friday is February 1, i.e. already after the FED meeting. If the EuR box ceiling has not yet been breached, it is quite possible that the rate will already hit it or be on the eve of it.

However, the gut feeling is that the level of 1.5 will hold for some time. It is hard to expect a resumption of a strong trend after 1500 pips are already passed.

 
Yurixx:
SK. wrote:

This is also because there are other fundamental factors. For example, oil is tied to dollars, there are large long-term inter-state relations, contracts in dollars. There are exports and imports. A weak dollar is as unprofitable for American exporters as a strong euro for European importers. There are currency reserves of states in dollars.

In short, a very high euro will not be allowed. It's not to anyone's advantage. I think somewhere above 1.5 we should expect intervention. They're more likely to agree than to let themselves take the reins. It's kind of like that ... natural intelligence :)


If it were all like that ... But the reality is a little bit different. Oil is another factor in the steadily increasing US trade and payment deficits. I don't think the oil tycoons of the Middle East will long accept as payment the paper that the US printing press is printing faster and faster. It is the ratio of imports to exports that has long been dragging the dollar down, but the economic hubbub of America and Europe think they can settle everything with their hands. That is the problem ! They do succeed, but only for a while. As soon as they go too far against the laws of economics, the seesaw breaks and the whole process gets out of control.

Whether they benefit from it or not, whether they want to or not - no one will ask them about it anymore. The wave of collapse washed away not such clever people. Unfortunately, their names then fall out of history. Students say the Great Depression.

The national banks of developed countries sold more than half of their gold reserves in the last 10 years. Currency interventions have been shown to be completely pointless and dangerous. There was only one time when it helped - when Sorros decided to drop the mark after the pound. Here against Sorros it helped, but against imbalances (especially strong ones) in global finance and economics - never. And as for making an agreement among themselves, of course, but with the market, only in their dreams. That is why they are objective laws. :-)

They wanted to reduce the balance of payments deficit by raising interest rates (attracting money through high interest rates), and they got hit with defaults on mortgages because of the high interest rate. I saw an analysis somewhere on the internet. Graphs - cycles of rising and falling interest rates - how this relates to inflation, etc. IHMO it was a very good economic analysis. Too bad I can't find it and would love to reread it again. If anyone has seen it, please share the link.
 

2 SK

Sergei, can you give me a hint? I need to draw a curve from the script. Is drawing it by segments the only way or are there some more suitable solutions ?

 
Yurixx:
Sart:
Let's check how this theory works. I recently opened a short position at 105.61 on the real account according to this theory.
The theory gives me the first target around 103.00-103.50 (Alpari quotes).
The opening signal is so strong that in case the price goes even 100 pips higher than the opening one, I will just strengthen my position.

On the yen you play against the dollar and on the euro you think the dollar will strengthen. That is, of those three currencies, the euro is the weakest. Surely the euro-yen chart should somehow confirm this?
This is for later - I do not look at anything, only at the bare yen chart. I came back from a walk and sellLimit triggered at 106.61. There are three more upper level waves above the wave we are playing in, pointing downwards.
So, no reason to get excited yet.