NATURAL INTELLIGENCE as the basis of a trading system - page 24
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
The topic is certainly a very interesting one. It only seems to me that the participants in the thread are too distracted by the moral and ethical and philosophical side of the issue. It seems to me that in order to create a full-fledged methodology for the use of natural intelligence for stock trading, at the first stage we must move away from these aspects of the problem, although I admit that they are very important, but it seems to me that the question of ethics of using something that does not yet exist is completely pointless.
In the meantime, "the question of ethics is utterly meaningless"...
... I'm just talking about a person's ability to control their perception, to transfer the unconscious to the conscious level, or to learn, just as you learn anything, with the help of feedback mechanisms...
... I think a particular difficulty in solving this question is the choice of signal sources and their representation. We're too used to the graphical form of representation
of numerical series. Besides, are there possible other (not quoted) signal sources that have the expected dependence on the current market state? For example, one friend of mine claimed that analyzing statistical characteristics of some words on news sites you can make fairly accurate predictions of financial and political situation in the country...
... We are too accustomed to the graphic form of numbers. Besides, are there possible other (not quoted) sources of signals with supposed dependence on the current state of the market?
When I work at MICEX, I almost never use charts, because I have the possibility to work in the "stack" (in the slang of Russian traders). The stack is a window with the ten best bids (buy bids) and ten best offers (sell bids). This is an analogy of the pit, but the only difference is that you are limited to see only the 20 nearest to you (potential) counterparts. Using only the stack, the possibility of scalping appears. And in general, over time, just the sense of the market emerges.
I tried to find a broker which would give the possibility if not to trade, then at least to monitor the stack, because all trading systems have stacks and only FX is presented to us as a chart and no more, which significantly reduces informativeness in decision-making and, consequently, reduces the profitability of trading and increases the number of losing participants. An example of the stack can be found on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where you are given demo access for several days, and the stack shows the five best bids and five best asks. By the way, there are 7 figures quoted on the Chicago exchange, not 5 as we are usually used to seeing. I suspect it's the same on FX, but a currency exchange is not FX. Penetrating the FX currency pair stack is an unattainable value for a mere physicist. Although, there are still brokers, who for a deposit of 100kilobaks and more, give the possibility to monitor the stack with recalculation of commissions in % of turnover (like on the classic exchange). That is why some brokerage companies easily reduce spread even to 1 pip, which in reality is 100 points.
And to say that the stack is "unquoted" is hardly possible.
In short, it all comes down to my appeal to broaden traders' horizons and not to deal with currency pairs because understanding of trading as a phenomenon via FX alone is very limited.
The topic is certainly very interesting. But it seems to me that the participants of this thread are too distracted by the moral and ethical side of the question. It seems to me that for a full-fledged method of using natural intelligence for stock trading, at the first stage we must move away from these aspects of the problem, although I admit that they are very important, but it seems to me that the question of ethics of using something that does not yet exist is completely senseless.
Now let's get straight to what this forum thread is all about.
This is all well and good, but the whole point of this discussion, in my opinion, boils down to the search for an answer to the question about the fundamental limits of natural intelligence. These limits are obvious to me, and I have tried to show them to all those interested. To put it simply, the following conclusions can be drawn:
The topic is certainly very interesting. But it seems to me that the participants of this thread are too distracted by moral and ethical side of the question. It seems to me that for a full-fledged methodology of using natural intelligence for stock trading, at the first stage we must move away from these aspects of the problem, although I admit that they are very important, but it seems to me that the question of ethics of using something which does not yet exist is completely senseless.
Now let's get straight to what this forum thread is all about.
This is all well and good, but the whole point of this discussion, in my opinion, boils down to the search for an answer to the question about the fundamental limits of natural intelligence. These limits are obvious to me, I have tried to show them to all those interested. To put it simply, the following conclusions emerge:
I think that for all your rightness you are still limited to one or more hypotheses about the capabilities of our intellect. I think this is the wrong approach. Moreover, I did not speak about the control of intuition. Control implies awareness, while intuition, in my opinion, is a product of subconscious psychical processes. But even this unconsciousness can be useful. I will give a fishing analogy (may be naive, but very close:))) Fisherman is using both rational and rational functions of his brain (he knows how and where to choose the best place, he knows the currents, water temperature, air temperature, time of year, etc.) and intuitive one, which allows to generalize his experience without using logical reasoning (I just feel that it is necessary to drill a hole, but I cannot say why:))) I think this feeling is familiar to anyone who has ever traded without using a trading system. The only question is how much we can trust this gut feeling. For this trust we need a methodology, which will show an objective result of our choice, and also a set of tools allowing a person to improve this result by means of education and training. Of course, they may tell me that intuition cannot be trained, that it is a gift, etc... But I hold the view that in narrow spheres of human activity the capacity for intuitive thinking increases in proportion to accumulated experience, and therefore intuition can be trained, one has only to know how to do it
in the most effective way.
... We're too used to the graphical representation of numerical
series. In addition, are there possible other (non-quoted) sources
signals with the supposed dependence on the current state
market? ...
In MICEX I almost never use charts, because I have
Stock" (Russian traders' slang).
or stack. The stack is a window with the ten best bids
and ten best buffers (bids to buy).
It's an analogy of a pit, but the only difference is that it's as if you
would be limited to being able to see only the 20 closest
to you (potential) counterparties. Using only the stack, there appears to be
the possibility of scalping. And in fact, over time, you get
just that sense of the market.
I've been trying to find a broker that would give you, if not trade, at least monitor the stack.
I've been trying, to no avail, to find a broker that would give me at least stack monitoring, if not trading,
Because all trading systems have stacks, and only FX is presented to us
that significantly reduces the informativeness of
in making decisions, and consequently, reduces the profitability
of trading and increases the number of losers. An example
You may find the example of stack at Chicago Foreign Exchange, they will give you
access for a few days and the stack shows the five best bids
and the top five asks. By the way, there are seven figures quoted on the Chicago exchange,
not 5 as we're used to seeing. I suspect it's the same on FX,
but the currency exchange is not FX. Penetrating the currency pair stack
FX is an unattainable value for the mere physicist. Although
there are brokers who offer monitoring of stack with 100K deposits and more.
possibility to monitor the stack with recalculation of commissions in % of
of turnover (like on classic stock exchange). That's why some brokerage companies easily
reduce spread even to 1 pip, which in reality is
100 pips.
And to say that the stack is "unquoted" is hardly possible.
is hardly possible.
In short, it all comes down to the fact that I'm once again urging everyone to broaden
and not to shake on currency pairs, because
To understand trading as a phenomenon using only FX is very, very limited.
limited.
indirectly and usually not consciously taken into account by traders in trading. For example, economic reports are not quoted, but traders consider them and this information influences the market. For example the level of noise in the trading room, or traders' movements during trading are not related to the market information, but can indirectly reflect the market situation. The same as for example frequency of such words as "rise", "fall", "recession", "crisis", "conflict", etc. appeared in financial news.
... I'm just talking about a person's ability to control their perception,
to transfer the unconscious to the conscious level, or to learn as one learns anything, by means of
feedback mechanisms...
... The particular difficulty in dealing with this question seems to me
is the choice of signal sources, and their presentation.
We're too accustomed to the graphical representation
of numerical series. In addition, is it possible other (not quoted)
signal sources having the expected dependence on the current
market condition? For example one of my friends claimed that by analyzing
statistical characteristics of some words on news
websites you can make fairly accurate predictions about the financial and political situation...
and political situation in the country...
I would love to hear from you. I think, based on the above, you have something to offer. Suggest
Alas, I do not have a method that has been developed and tested, I only have ideas about the direction to take. For you to understand what I mean, I will tell you about a conversation with my neighbour. One day he came to me regarding a communal harkter and saw two monitors with price charts. He started asking me what was going on. I gave him a brief explanation. He listened attentively and then asked a puzzling question: May I listen? I didn't understand what he meant and asked him to explain, he told me that he worked as a submarine acoustician in the navy for five years and could distinguish even the smallest nuances of objects (boats, ships), if it was presented in audible form, he said, He said they had an apparatus on the boat that allows you to analyze signals on the graphs, but he almost never used it because he listened much better and when he saw my charts and I told him he could make money on it he wanted to know if he could present it all in audio form, which would be more convenient. After that I wondered if the common approach to presenting financial information is correct? And maybe there are other options to improve the quality of intuitive forecasts.
I think you are right but are limited by one or more hypotheses of our intellect. I think that's the wrong approach. Moreover, I did not speak about the control of intuition, while I consider intuition to be a product of subconscious psychical processes. But even this unconsciousness can be useful. I will give a fishing analogy (may be naive, but very close:))) Fisherman is using both rational cognitive functions of his brain (knowing how and where to choose the best place, considering currents, water temperature, air temperature, time of year, etc.) and intuitive one that allows to generalize his experience without using logical reasoning (I just feel that it is necessary to drill a hole here, but I cannot say why:)))) I think this feeling is familiar to anyone who has ever traded without using trading systems. The only question is to what extent we can trust this inner feeling. For this trust we need a methodology, which will show an objective result of our choice, and also a set of tools allowing a person to improve this result by means of education and training. Of course, they may tell me that intuition cannot be trained, that it is a gift, etc... But I hold the view that in narrow spheres of human activity the capacity for intuitive thinking increases in proportion to accumulated experience, and therefore intuition can be trained, one has only to know how to do it
in the most effective way.
The point of your position is clear.
Indeed, the feeling that "there is going to be a reversal" is familiar to many traders. But when it comes to
I'm against it. However, in essence, this is an aim to "put intuition under control" or to serve oneself, as the case may be, the essence is the same.
As far as methodology is concerned, as of today society is not ready to declare at least the foundations of this methodology. More accurately, of course, there will be "experts" who will tell you and me anything (for some reason, for example, to satisfy a megalomaniac, for bragging rights or even more so for money). To a certain extent, esoterics answers the question of methodology (esoterics is not a science, but a field of knowledge, which is not recognized by everybody and is not recognized as science). But one has to realize that there are few true esotericists and one should not indulge in illusions - they are not even close to you and me, because of our down-to-earth aims.
One should be especially careful with all kinds of "tools". What can one person (let us say an ordinary visitor of this forum) really offer? A straightforward question demands a straightforward answer - and nothing good. There are only mindless enthusiasts with initiative, which, as always, want to createa "grail" on an empty place, and preferably by this evening. And they will begin to experiment with their psyche and body (stimuli - sound, light, shape of objects - pendulum and rotation, weak electricity, weak drugs, a hundred grams, light hypnosis, mantra, hot bath, special. poses, sex without measure or prolonged abstinence, with or without headphones, asleep or awake, breath holding or hyperventilation, candlelight and burning, piercing and "tolerating" pain, balancing on a ledge and many others) mixed with perverted delusions, such as throwing needles into a frying pan, whispering "for love until the grave" with your lips in the mirror (with variations such as "I won't breathe, don't say kozyrtsya" or "I incant, let there be a Sell out"), tying silver cords to major currencies, and other nonsense.
Being in the right mind and bright mind, it is not difficult to imagine the result - he will be crippled, the fool, that's all. That is why it would be better to put an end to it.
And the positive is the same - to learn and use the knowledge gained in practice. But to do everything really well, at the limit of your natural abilities.
... I would like to pay special attention to the natural neural networks (the brain)...
My question is formulated as follows:
Is it possible to train the brain (I say exaggeratedly) on historical data for predictive purposes? I.e. learning what many programmers and mathematicians try to teach the ANN. Training with the same methods (but on a different plane).
Thank you.
Implex
Good thing you gave signs of life on the forum. I had hoped that the man had just asked a question and dropped dead. But it turns out no, he sits, reads, observes and has long been engaged in the creation of intelligence.
Aw, bright souls, re-read again what you are asked about, you see only the good, bright and good and think that everyone is like that.
For those who did not see what I saw, let me explain.
All attempts to take even a spark of intelligence out of computers have failed, at least at the current stage of development. Firstly, the computer has a binary logic (Yes and No), i.e. two states 0 and 1. It doesn't have a zone I don't know. At a minimum, there should be a ternary logic +1 0 -1. Secondly, no matter how many times we increase (parallelize) calculation resources the human brain (natural intellect) does not think in parallel but rather figuratively, there is even a concept "image thinking" + 80% of information the human brain gets in the form of pictures (images). We can see it even on the example of this thread(ballistika shows a trading strategy, and for a better perception komposter drew its strategy, if we make it move (picture) as there SL, TP Limit-tips are set it would be even more evident). It turns out:
1. that it is more natural (faster) to train in the form of moving pictures, but you need feedback (to know how everything is trained there).
2. Artificial Intelligence cannot be built on a computer, you need another basis.
This is why I have the following questions for you Implex.
You are just reading, and like a psychologist you are watching us. Speak up. I don't feel good about it.
Here we go! Happy Holidays, colleagues!
Prival, you're a man of passion, save your time. Rosh once wrote that his natural neural network (i.e. his own brain) copes better with market evaluations than artificial NS (sorry, Rosh, if I distorted the thought). But I'm pretty sure he didn't train it on purpose - Influence the pain or pleasure centre or whatever. It's just that intuition came with experience. By the way, intuition is better understood according to Descartes: "By intuition I understand not the belief in shaky testimony of the senses and not the deceptive judgment of disordered imagination, but the concept of clear and attentive mind, so simple and distinct, that it leaves no doubt about what we think, or that the same, solid concept of clear and attentive mind, produced only by the natural light of reason and due to its simplicity more reliable, than deduction itself, although the latter can not be constructed badly by man... Thus, for example, anyone can intuitively comprehend with the mind that he exists, that he thinks, that a triangle is limited to three sides only, that a ball has only one surface and similar truths. "
Implex, Prival, what do you want from your natural intelligence? To keep it busy watching quotes and issuing buy and sell commands on different instruments from time to time?! It seemed to me that we gathered here on this forum with the exact opposite purpose - to put this boring occupation on the artificial intellect.Prival, your pessimism about the artificial intellect says only that you haven't begun to study it yet. There has long been neurocomputing and neurocomputers that, based on fuzzy logic, various normalizations, synaptic connections and other non-linear (and linear) processing, perform "figurative" (equivalent to parallel) "calculations" rather than being limited to binary logic. Doesn't Better's example inspire you, why should you be distracted by these psychological experiments! You have already tried to proclaim here the Pythagorean thesis that numbers rule the world. Oh, come on!