One for all. General exeprt. - page 11

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RIK, you can read my thoughts on the news here:
https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/50458 solandr 04.10.06 10:11

 
Basically your view on the news is nothing but filtered through the tenets and dogmas of hundreds of articles and books and other statements about most of the market fundamentals. What I mean is that the news itself is an excuse for the market to break out legally so to speak and it can do whatever it needs to but it needs a reason. The market itself needs the world's banking system, and since we traders have stuck to this system and try to earn some profit by following the system's rules. This is why all sorts of tricks and filters of quotes were invented for us, they mutilate world-known indicators beyond recognition. And therefore the systems based on these indicators will not work.
 
RIK:
What I am saying is that the news as such is just an excuse for a more legitimate market push, so to speak, he could have done everything he needed to do, but he needed a reason.
I think about the same thing.

RIK wrote (a):
I think it is for us that all kinds of tricks and filters of quotes which distort world-known indicators beyond recognition have been invented. And consequently the systems built on the basis of these indicators will not work.


It is clear that if several big players agree with each other, they can do what they want with the market. But do not think that they agree outside of the current market situation! They are taking it into account. What prevents traders from also taking the situation into account BEFORE the movement begins, rather than when the train has already started and they are trying to jump in?
And what about quotes filters, which "mutilate beyond recognition world-known indicators", then it is from the area of "world conspiracy theory" :o).
 
Exactly, they do, but they do not necessarily follow it. The banks' consortiums do not know exactly where the market is going and for how long. Because they are the ones who give quotes. And why the theories about the global conspiracy. They do not see him at all. Example, 20-21.07.2005: ALL news on the U.S. currency one better than the other + an uptrend in the dollar + Greenspan's speech that U.S. interest rates will rise + ALL negative on the pound in the same days: 4 Committee members (instead of 3) voted to cut UK interest rates + new terrorist attack, and the result? The pound has risen against the dollar by 350 points. So unless you take as a starting point the truth that I stated above, you can't explain such paradoxes.
 

Well, I don't know how much you need my explanations, but I can suggest that the pound went simply "by the technique", and not by the news, which turned out to be of secondary importance in this case.
Here is a picture of those times. The pound is up 350 pips, but it's not out of its current probability channel is it?

PS: Playing on the news is not something you can really make money on! And speaking to you about the current market situation, I meant only a technical picture of the market, not the upcoming news. And until you give up the world conspiracy theory that you "see through" ;o), until then you should do something else, other than Forex :o). Save your money, time and nerves :o).


PS: Often in economic relations, the World Conspiracy Theory can lead to the lumpenproletariat thinking like Sharikov and Shvonder: "I would just take it all and divide it all" ;o). (copyright film: "A Dog's Heart").

 
2 RIK I never realised that paranoia was not only a severe disease, but also contagious :). Although the number of followers of the master is astounding :).
In prehistoric times when observable processes or phenomena went beyond the conceptual framework of an observer, the latter extended his methods of prediction (or explanation of what is happening) with introduction of such entities as "demons", "evil spirits" and "unclean powers". Try to improve your forecasting in that direction - if the quality of predictions will improve, you're on the right track :).

But seriously, because the market is a numbers game, you have several options :
1. Use a developed strategy, and for that improve the discipline of both thinking and working. 'Developed' includes formalisation and statistical relevance, not general reasoning on general topics.
2. Attempt to learn the applied aspects of mathematics, so as to be able to develop one's own.
3. Engage in something else other than trading.

Good luck.
 

I myself have read his works 2-3 months ago, but I would not call it paranoia, because there is some truth in his reasoning. I myself am not a follower of his system, but not because I consider it unsuccessful, but simply because I did not want to pay money, and there are quite decent alternatives. I had some time I was hooked on some forecasts by Axel Rudolf, but I cannot read them properly and periodicity of their issue is not very exciting...

As for examples when the course of the pair and the news did not correspond to each other at first sight, you can find a lot of them. Plain excuses of analysts that "the market won back everything in advance" do not sound convincing, because it is just fitting the history to the theory. On the other hand I think that TA rules in the vast majority of cases and it is enough to develop a profitable Expert Advisor (and even MTS). And the system does not have to be complicated, but rather the opposite.

 
Dear REBUS. You have answered your own question. The fulcrum is probably what we should be looking for. As a starting point we may take a daily bar, it is more spacious there and easier to identify a pattern-setup. They say that a drop of milk contains its entire essence. Perhaps this approach will help to detect more easily the necessary characteristics, patterns or sets of price movement. Can we calculate and formalize a mathematical model of a real daily bar by measuring the amplitude, strength and speed of its movement, and attaching a symbol to a separate bar that also has a visual image in its exploded view by hours? I am not very good at such analysis, but I think it is possible. As a result we will get an image with certain mathematical characteristics, its internal high and low, and the sum of such images may become the language to be used by the neural network to communicate with the price. I'm glad to see many people here who are more competent in these and other areas of knowledge than I am, and therefore I will not bore you with possible amateurish talk. May be I am mistaken, inventing a bicycle, in which case I'd like to hear "turn away" in a more studied for this kind of analysis side. And, lastly, it seems to me that we, wishing to understand the multitude, are obliged to search for elements of essence and objectivity in one object, but not in history. History is non-objective; it is not an entity, and it only appears to us that everything repeats; that's not true. Precisely repetition is its subjectivism, while non-coincidence is the element of development, the basic and fundamental content of history for us. Sorry for being too general and non-specific, this is the result of my lack of analytical skills, the absence of the necessary apparatus and tools for analysis. Regards Boris
 
RIK, are you in complete solidarity with MF-V ?
 
Parabellum:
RIK, are you in complete solidarity with MF-V ?
I apologize for the uninvited intervention, it is of course too early for me to interfere in such discussions,
but I can't resist quoting today's events on NZDUSD, as an example of possible market management:
today, after three days of stagnation at 19.15(Alpari trading platform time) the price goes down with a gap of 30 pts and goes further 5 pts to 0.7636
at 19.45 the price reaches the level of 0.7736
goes down by 15-20 pips and till 22.30 is moving in this area, maybe stagnating again....
Tit for tit "figure"....100 п.

That's where you think of a world conspiracy in the spirit of MF-V, ....

Regards - S.D.
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